GKN Share Discussion Threads

[leadersoffice] 11/4/2018 18:59

Well I've missed the deadline for mix and match I believe. I'm pretty sure the cash offer will remain for any shareholders who haven't yet accepted. The fact is, people are still buying, I assume there's still some money to be made from this level to £4.50 ish... it went down a bit prior to yesterday.
I'm not sure I want Melrose shares. As long as I get my cash, I'll be happy

[bouleversee] 11/4/2018 18:47

I think the last chance saloon insofar as options are concerned is now, for me at any rate. Won't the next stage (assuming they get sufficient acceptances) to be to declare it wholly unconditional at which point only the basic offer will be available for a limited amount of time (14 days?)?

[leadersoffice] 11/4/2018 18:07

The offer is still unconditional so my understanding is the company, Melrose, will probably make the offer conditional next week probably on the 17th April so last chance saloon then?? I am also undecided whether to take the money and run or invest it in Melrose shares...anyone know what the IC's take on the offer is?

[bouleversee] 11/4/2018 17:04

Thanks, Bukko. No need to apologise. I have until just before midnight to get my option in.

GKN were getting rid of many of the components of their business anyway, though, and hadn't managed them well latterly. You obviously know a lot more about Melrose's other businesses than I do and thank you for drawing attention to the bigger picture. I must do a bit of homework. They may have risen on the crest of a wave but not all businesses managed to do that. Food for thought.

If you are so anti Melrose, why don't you take the all cash option which is worth more than the cash and share basic option at current prices if my calcs. are correct? No risk at all in that apart from investing it insomething that does even worse.

[bukko] 11/4/2018 16:31

bouleversee

In a word "risk" and in no way comparable in quality and market positioning with the businesses in GKN. The main business is highly cyclical correlated with house construction and commercial construction. The valuations seem optimistic in the main USA market where many feel stocks are too high and due for correction.

There is a lot of Melrose fever about. Their successes arose following the unique circumstances of the financial crash and riding the recovery in markets. How much of the returns were due to "improvements" and how much would have occurred anyway in recovering world markets?

Sorry could not reply earlier.

[bouleversee] 11/4/2018 15:08

Bukko

Thanks for replying. Why don't you want any Melrose shares?

[bukko] 11/4/2018 13:19

As for government intervention. They have two paper trays- 1. for Items overtaken by events and 2. for Items not yet overtaken by events.

[bukko] 11/4/2018 13:07

bouleversee

"Perhaps I'll wander over to the Melrose BB and see if there are any clues there."

Good luck with that !!! (with a couple of honorable exceptions)

I missed 450 so may have to accept the base offer to maximise cash and await a better opportunity if the Melrose fever continues to rage on. Some signs of life in the share price this am. If it gets to 435 today I might sell.

[bouleversee] 11/4/2018 10:05

I can't see the govt. blocking it at this stage, although they may (and probably will) make life difficult for Melrose if they turn it round and want to sell it on. Too late to sell in the market, so which option to choose. I have to get mine in to my broker today and am dithering like an idiot. The newspapers I read are all anti GKN (whose management, let's face it, has been pretty useless in recent years) and very pro Melrose who they say usually do a very good job in turning round companies though to my inexperienced eye their fundamentals don't look all that marvellous. I had decided to go for the extra shares option but I see their share price has fallen and the cash option would now be best, followed by the basic cash and share option, but what will happen to the Melrose share price after it has all gone through? I see Goldman Sachs increased their holding in Melrose to 8.3% yesterday so presumably they must think it's good value at the moment. So what to do? If I took the cssh I wouldn't know what to do with it at the moment. Maybe, I should hedge my bets and go for the basic. Perhaps I'll wander over to the Melrose BB and see if there are any clues there.

[minerve] 07/4/2018 23:42

Always was going to happen.

[anony mous] 05/4/2018 07:29

4 April 2018Moody's Places GKN Rating Under Review For Downgrade After Melrose Bid.

[minerve] 04/4/2018 18:23

The offer was in fluffy Melrose shares.

They blow in the wind like tumbleweed. The only thing certain here is the Melrose executives will pay themselves obscene bonuses for doing not very much and people will lose their jobs to pay for those obscene bonuses.

Stay clear if I were you, it smells a bit tainted.

[brain smiley] 04/4/2018 17:53

Good question
Maybe the bid is off

[anony mous] 04/4/2018 17:48

HiWhy is this 4.29?I thought bid confirmed at 4.60.If i bought now then would i get paid 30p more on final takeover?Thanks in advance.

[grahamburn] 04/4/2018 14:54

I know I promised myself not to visit this board again until after the takeover completed (or in the unlikely event it is blocked), but this from the Business Commentary column in The Times today was too clever/amusing not to share.
________________________

Comment
April 4 2018, The Times
Unions get wrong signals on GKN
Robert Lea

GKN’s radar system is an extraordinary invention. It is completely invisible. It has the ability to get in people’s minds and render their speech nonsense. For the GKN radar is exactly that: an invention. It doesn’t exist.

The GKN radar has become a new battlefield for the trade unions. Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, went on BBC radio to declare that the government should belatedly intervene in the £8 billion takeover by Melrose on national security grounds, arguing: “If I was flying a military aircraft kitted out by a GKN radar, I would be worried.” So would we. Not just because Ms O’Grady doesn’t hold a pilot’s licence, but because GKN’s radar system is a fabrication of the fictional kind.

To be charitable, Ms O’Grady took her GKN radar intelligence from a misinformed piece in another newspaper. But that is kind of the point: it is another example of trade union misinformation during this takeover battle of fake news (as it happens, GKN used to make radomes, the glass domes that protect radar avionics, but it has sold the business).

The irony of the scrambled GKN radar message goes with the fuzzy transmissions of Jack Dromey, the trade unionist-turned-Labour MP who represents 900 GKN Driveline workers in his Birmingham constituency. To stoically rubbish the Melrose takeover when GKN’s own management had already sold his constituents down the M6 with the sale of GKN Driveline on the cheap to Dana, a bunch of Americans who subsequently and rather ungallantly admitted they weren’t that bothered about the deal either way, suggests Mr Dromey hasn’t been concentrating. Or too busy reading the Daily Mail.

To quote their one-time political hero Tony Blair, there are some battles that are just not worth fighting. With GKN it is more a case of fighting the wrong fight: neither GKN management nor the Melrose board are the friend of trade unions.

Ms O’Grady closed her radio address admitting that she could not comprehend why it is short-termist shareholders and not the workforce who decide the ownership of a company. Thirteen years of Labour rule did not move the dial on takeover law. Yet if thinkers on the centre-left really care about corporate ownership, they could do worse than look to the stiftungs of the Continent. These share-bloc-owning foundations can be used to protect companies from takeovers. In a British context, they could be used to align the interests of employees, pension scheme members, even local government. But then again, just rubbishing the boss class is far easier.

[alphahunter] 04/4/2018 08:30

2019 PE

Valeo 10.7
Borgwarner 10.4
Spirit AeroSystems 12.0
Ducommun 14.2
Safran 16.2
MTU 16.8
GKN 17.0 (stand-alone)

[meanwhile] 03/4/2018 20:48

Hi Minerve, I’ll be hanging onto my MRO for now, looking for around 250p to be happy selling some. We will need some cash in a few months for stock for that shop. It’s a cycle shop.
Good luck to you.

[sorcery] 03/4/2018 20:29

"It is deliberately ambiguous to seek to keep everyone happy/quiet as there is little point in discussing high powered financial, business or economic matters any more on this or the Melrose board."

Is that what passes for sense in your world?

Anyway "The Melrose deal is primarily equity based as opposed debt based."
Maybe but nobody wants Melrose equity. :-)

[grahamburn] 03/4/2018 20:13

Sorcery.... you are quite right to put a question mark after "£8billion of loans".

The Melrose deal is primarily equity based as opposed debt based.

But then the posts on this board used to be ones of reasonable quality, depth and sense. Now the newer posters have introduced a large dose of the opposite.

However, the same to an even greater degree/quantity has occurred on the Melrose board too over the past couple of weeks.

That is a genuine shame and very depressing to sane investors as both boards relate to important companies within the UK; one in a degree of management and financial turmoil and one trying the hard to raise its own game.

Before anyone tries to contradict the last paragraph, let me emphasise that supporters of GKN are at perfect liberty to determine which description fits that company, as are supporters of Melrose. It is deliberately ambiguous to seek to keep everyone happy/quiet as there is little point in discussing high powered financial, business or economic matters any more on this or the Melrose board.

Fallible human beings see what they wish to see and hold pre-conditioned views which do not allow for a sensible discussion.

So, I will not visit either board until the saga has reached its conclusion.

[sorcery] 03/4/2018 19:22

Hi Minerva,

I know I am not MEANWHILE but my take is the government will not approve if they don't know who the ultimate buyer is (the one providing the dosh, not Melrose), then the government could get seriously embarrassed if they are not careful.

It could be stopped if the papers picked up on it.

I am holding until I the 18th, the last day before acceptance or not. Far more value in a holding in GKN than Melrose I think.

Nothing wrong with selling now, if the takeover does get blocked then I would expect the share price to fall short term. I am seriously interested in why a non-entity like Melrose could attract £8billion of loans?

[minerve] 03/4/2018 18:44

Hi MEANWHILE

I don't think the deal will be blocked. Quite frankly I think the government are just going through the motions, pretending concern, faking consideration. Just leave it on the desk for a week or two and then let it pass.

I can always buy back in if the miracle occurred.

What are your plans for your Melrose holding?

[meanwhile] 03/4/2018 17:56

Minerve,

You must be convinced there's no hope of a block on the deal.

[minerve] 03/4/2018 17:48

Sold out of GKN, all above £4.50.

I will watch from the sidelines. I don't want to shake the hand of Melrose.

[alphahunter] 03/4/2018 15:26

In in early september, out now.
GL to all holders.

[sorcery] 02/4/2018 20:34

Thanks Meanwhile, found it now, it's not a proper report but still damning.
They made a full year loss in 2017 after a statutory half year profit!
And these are the wunderkind that are going to save GKN from GKN?

Who are the people who voted for this? You know who you are, own up before it gets worse :-) Melrose are a front for somebody else and totally incapable of doing anything positive for GKN imho.