Gippsland Share Discussion Threads

[robjm66] 31/8/2009 17:15

Reply from Bagman22 hotcopper

'll be starting to sound like JT any minute!
That's the old 10:1 (probably worse) Niobium:Tantalum trick.
It's a Niobium mine, full stop. Let's see the details before we get worried about that one.

[robjm66] 31/8/2009 15:59

From hotcopper

huge niobium/tantalum/ree discovery in china

Double posted this for obvious reasons not a lot of detail on the discovery yet but very worrying so if anyone comes across any info on it can they post it up.

Robert

China has discovered rare metal deposits of more than 100,000 tons of niobium, the nation's largest of its kind, in northwestern Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, an engineer said Monday.

"The size has surpassed China's total proven niobium reserve of 80,000 tons," said Xu Haiming, a senior engineer with the Institute of Mineral Resources at the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.

"The super-large deposit is worth more than 130 billion yuan ($19 billion) after being exploited." It also has a proven reserve of more than 10,000 tons of tantalum and rare earth metals, Xu said.

The deposit is 3,860 to 4,100 meters above sea level, in Baicheng county, Aksu prefecture of south Xinjiang.
Niobium and tantalum are rare metal elements, which are widely used in the fields of electronics, aviation, atomic energy, and mechanical manufacturing.
The exploration started in 2007 and has cost about 20 million yuan, Xu said.

[marksnsparkle] 29/8/2009 13:38

I surrender

[marksnsparkle] 29/8/2009 13:11

Waving white flag

[marksnsparkle] 29/8/2009 11:33

robjm66 ... I don't know what boosted there share price because I don't follow Lycopodium and other than glancing at Lycopodium "chart" it does not sound like you do either

But just to illustrate my point if somebody at Lycopodium leaked news to me that GIP was on the verge of getting there debt financing and building the mine I would invest in GIP not Lycopodium ... common sense really

Lycopodium is not a pure play on GIP, I'm sure Lycopodium do business with lots of companies, so the announcement of such news will have more of an effect on GIPs share price than it will on Lycopodium share price

Also why is nobody piling into GIP if this leaked news is out there or is Lycopodium now the best way to invest in GIP

How the hell can you attempt to defend such a moronic and misleading statement ... your doing very amateur technical analysis on Lycopodium chart to find out what is going on at GIP?

[marksnsparkle] 29/8/2009 10:07

robjm66 ... the bit in part two about Lycopodium is total nonsense

[robjm66] 29/8/2009 00:08

Part two.

Joan of Arc think Gandel is very certain that every thing will go ahead and he is not the only one. I missed this at the time but with the benefit of hindsight it is obvious that word has spread to Gip's engineer's the people who will set Abu Dabbab up Lycopodium.


If you look at the chart you see two big increases the first starting at $1.75 and the second much bigger at $2.00 would think the first was in anticipation of a not bad preliminary final report and the second about the increased likelihood of Abu Dabbab going ahead.

Mind you i am not a chartist it is possible word got round there earlier at the beginning of July possibly. Probably other posters here looking at the chart would have more idea than me. Certainly looking at the Preliminary Final Report a profit after tax increase of 13.7 percent does not equal a 40 - 50 percent jump or even higher if you look earlier on the chart.

Do not see any evidence of H C Stark or KFW walking away everything seems to point to the opposite. In fact the KFW have just extended the tenure of lead debt arranger "The company has secured an extension to KFW's mandate as lead arranger to secure finance for the project until 31st of December 2009." The previous mandate run out earlier technically.

"German bank KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH ("KfW") was appointed Mandated Lead Arranger to secure debt finance for the Abu Dabbab Project in December 2007. This mandate has been extended for a further 6 months to 30 June 2009 with the present focus being on their technical and legal due diligence process. KfW is part of the Standard& Poor's AAA rated KfW Bankengruppe which is 80% owned by the German Government and 20% by the Federal German states (Bundesl?er)." would not make much sense renewing it if they were just about to walk away.

Have covered the reasons why i think H C Stark will not walk away multiple times so will give everyone a break and not go over them again. Certainly in the prospectus bits like "completion of the independent review of the revised production flowsheet is currently well advanced" give mew confidence. The work being put into the syncon route generally is good evidence that Gip will do a deal with Starck eventually.

Robert

Robert

[robjm66] 28/8/2009 23:57

Part one.

Generally agree with Chipperfrd's and Markensparkle's comments (so i must be tired Lol). The dilution is not good news for holders like me that cannot afford to take part in a rights issue but for others at least they are being given the chance to buy Cheap Gip shares.

Would not be surprised if Gandel/Gandel metals/Abbotsleigh are not to disappointed either way if people do not go for their full allotment of shares.

"In addition, Gandel Metals, which will underwrite the Rights Offer, is also an entity controlled by Ian Gandel. The combined interests of Abbotsleigh and Gandel Metals in Gippsland's issued capital will be between 18.9% and 36.9%, representing a controlling interest in Gippsland by Mr Gandel." Plus i he will be hoovering up any shortfall which is not unusaul for companies he is involved in."

So what will this mean well...
Mr Gandel has informed the Company that if he were to gain effective control of the Company by virtue of Abbotsleigh's and Gandel Metals' shareholding, including New Shares acquired under the Offer and the underwriting of the Offer, the current intentions of Ian Gandel are that he will procure that the Company will:
•
generally continue the business of the Company;
•
work closely with the Directors to raise the funds necessary to meet the Company's cash requirements;
•
subject to any legal requirements, not make any major changes to the business of the Company nor redeploy any of the fixed assets of the Company; and
•
subject to detailed internal review of the operations and budgetary constraints of the Company, continue the employment of the Company's present employees.

And so on so that's clear then guess we will have to listen to what Vespa lets slip. One plus is now that any added dilution (after the offer) will eat into Gandel share so he will try to make sure there is not much more of it unless he uses to grab more of the company.

However think he will more than happy with effective control. It is unusual for him to take more than the percentage he is likely to end up with with Gip looking at his other companies.

Robert

[robjm66] 28/8/2009 20:17

Sorry everyone only got on the computer just now (babysitting all day plus other things) and am now wading through stuff. Will way up the information and post later. On the offtake someone got a email from H C starck before and they said it was in operation.

My first feeling Gandel going to make a lot of money and if i had the money i would take up my entitlement. Obvious Vespa knew what was coming again with his comments.

Guess i should have flagged them up more at the time but i was tired of banging my head against a brick wall pointing out how it was obvious he was getting inside information on Gippsland.

"Ian Gandel did a European circuit a few months ago which extended into Egypt.....and maybe a Company and share re-structure will be more attractive to the Euro investors.
Just a thought.
Still am not a holder as my interest must remain with AGS, ALK and now DGO ...but GIP holders should await the re-structure. It is a pattern."

"domum...Your post is a clear indication of the mess inherent in GIP's share and option "structure" and the disregard for shareholder value in its history of unplanned and "last minute" capital chasing. The "structure" needs to be cleaned up and made transparent as does the priorities in the realisation of its assets.
That is all I meant in my last post...and it will happen!!...but before that the placing of a value on a GIP share is problematic to say the least.
Cheers"

Obvious why he was keeping a low profile as well he knew a lot of shareholders would not like it!

Will edit this post today or tomorrow to avoid getting into trouble and go back over past posts taking out my heavy hints about Vespa. Do not think anyone can really argue now that Vespa is getting information long before the long suffering gip holder and is likely in the Gandel/John Dunlop camp.

Guess we cannot say we were not warned by him though with him saying how Gandel was going to take over a large slice of the company. Looking at his other companies Gandel is going to be very happy to take up any new shares not taken up by shareholders.

Looks like JT is effectively a passenger now and it is all down to Gandel do not see him losing money or being outmaneuvered because he is not ruthless enough Lol!

Sorry for not picking up the information earlier was too busy getting beaten 16 1 by my nephews and am now knackered so a apologize in advance if any my posts are not up to scratch tonight or i miss anything.

Robert

[marksnsparkle] 28/8/2009 13:30

JOA ... I think you will most likely receive the form for you non SIPP shares as the Australian registry will know where to send it, but your SIPP shares may be a bit more complicated

However in both cases I would not wait for the form to arrive but rather speak to both brokers ASAP and point them to the prospectus on line, because they probably won't be aware of it

[marksnsparkle] 28/8/2009 13:23

I am pretty confident that the form will need to be posted out to you, I doubt you will be able to download it anywhere ... no sense in making it available to people who are not entitled to shares

[chipperfrd] 28/8/2009 13:16

JoA,

They state 'the accompanying Entitlement and Acceptance Form' which is NOT attached - so we will need to get hold of this. On past form I expect mark will find it first!

[chipperfrd] 28/8/2009 13:02

JoA,

Sorry, I have been busy with some other stuff as well so have not zoomed through the PDF to check.

I have emailed my broker regarding the Rights and will let you know if there is anything useful to impart.
Chip

[joan of arc] 28/8/2009 12:47

Chipperfrd - I must be going blind then!

[chipperfrd] 28/8/2009 12:36

Looks like the 17m options at A$0.015 are likely to be exercised. If they are not then perhaps it could be revealing - we shall see!

[chipperfrd] 28/8/2009 12:34

JoA,

I am still wading through the Prospectus but it does say the required forms are at the end of the document.

[joan of arc] 28/8/2009 12:30

Thanks for the prompt responses. Does anyone know where to pick up the appropriate forms?

[chipperfrd] 28/8/2009 12:16

JoA,

GIP were in technical default of the off-take by mid-2008 according to the wording of the original agreement.

I assume that it would have been up to Starck to have used those conditions to have made a formal withdrawal, which they have never done (as far as I am aware).

I doubt that the move to a SynCon product at AD would have been made except at the request of Starck so they look to be retaining their interest but drawing out the approval process as long as possible (presumably because of the economic climate).

Perhaps GIP should be actively pursuing an alternative off-take in any case as this one has nearly finished them off and still appears to be no nearer a conclusion than in late 2007. I would really find it extraordinary if the Chinese were not prepared to step in - they are very active in gaining strategic stakes in most of the other strategic metals.

HC Starck, German Banks, IFC, et al - none of it has worked for shareholders so far so why on earth don't GIP look elsewhere?
Chip

[marksnsparkle] 28/8/2009 12:13

Joan of Arc ... I think the risk is one of time scales

I think if you take part in the rights issue you won't loose your money, but you risk possibly tying more of your money up for a long time

IF HC and KfW walk away GIP won't go bust, but they will have to start again in regards to the offtake and the financing

HC might just not be in a position to make a decision right now because of the economic conditions

What I am saying is only buy more shares if worst comes to worst you are prepared to tie that money up for a long time

Gandel may be confident that things will come good eventually hence he is taking part, but what are his time scales, 3 months, 1 year, 2 years?

[joan of arc] 28/8/2009 11:59

MS - Good research as usual. What you say makes perfectly good sense, BUT if the risk really outweighed the reward surely Gandel would not be taking up his full entitlement (even to the point of converting the loan) and underwriting the offer. Surely he must be dead certain that he will negotiate an offtake agreement and, even though negotiating from a position of obvious weakness, thinks that the agreement will make a sound return. Likewise, HC will need to secure future supplies and, ultimately, it is not in their interests to drive GIP into the ground (excuse the metaphor). I still feel inclined to follow Gandel's lead.

As an aside, it was very remiss of JT (again!) not to publish an RNS, or AUS equivalent, when GIP defaulted and the contract became null and void. That could hardly be said to have not been price sensitive information!