Genbel Nm Share Discussion Threads

[maestro.] 05/1/2004 22:24

For so long now the telecom industry has suffered a nightmare 3 years...but at long last sentiment is changing and these stocks will be the 'stars' of 2004...stocks like Thus,Redstone,Telewest,IDN will imho be the biggest gainers but also the heavy weights like Vodafone,C&W and BT should do well..

[azalea] 02/1/2004 18:42

alkul
Subscribe to the Investors Chronicle, not infallible but overall very good value for your money. Be wary of ordinary unattributable tips in the weekend press.

Questor has given his 6 tips for 2004 in today's D. Telgraph, worth a read.

[alkul] 02/1/2004 18:28

where should i get the tips of 2004?
what material should i read to buy and sell shares?
which is the good magazine on stocks and shares which i can buy every week?
could any one help?
thanks to all who would advise me and help me.

[mcbeanburger] 02/1/2004 10:39

Droke likes coal. Me too.



Forecast for 2004

By: Clif Droke, Author of BMR -- ClifDroke.com

It's time once again for my annual Forecast for the coming year. Year 2003 was a remarkable year for gold enthusiasts and stock traders alike. Gold bugs finally got their wish of a gold price above $400/ounce, while stock market bulls cheered as the Dow finally made it back above the vaunted 10,000 level. Considering the great variety of bull markets in most commodity and stock market sectors, I believe it's safe to say that 2003 was propitious for just about everyone who had a bullish inclination.


The dominant theme in 2003, especially the last nine months of the year, was inflation. Not inflation in the economic sense but inflation in the sense of rising prices across-the-board for equities, commodities, and real estate due to massive injections of liquidity into the U.S. financial system. While we may decry this obvious rescue attempt on the part of the Congress and the Fed from a macroscopic standpoint, it is not ours to criticize as actors in the investing realm -- ours is merely to take advantage of the infusion of liquidity and try to ride the waves. Traders and investors who understood this truism did extremely well in 2003.

In many ways, 2003 was a banner year. Not in a long time was it so easy to make money in the financial markets. In some ways it was like those heady days of the late 1990s when all one had to do was throw a dart at the stock quote section of the Wall Street Journal in order to pick a winner. Beginning in March of 2003 a great number of turnaround candidates began showing up in the charts with the common trait of the 10-week moving average coming up and over the 30-week MA -- a classic turnaround indicator. Thus, chart-based traders (including my subscribers) did quite well by simply following the graphs. Even fundamentally-based traders should have done fairly well simply by taking measure of the monetary "winds of change" (i.e., the billions of dollars in Congressional spending and Fed pumping obviously was destined to have a positive impact on stock and commodity prices). About the only ones who didn't make out like bandits in 2003 were the die-hard bears of the "crash now!" mentality. Yet despite this blunder on their part, I believe they will have a chance to at least partially redeem themselves in 2004 if I am reading the market correctly.

The past year also saw the bottom of the 12-year cycle, which is absolutely dominant! This includes the 4-year Presidential Cycle, so with this major cycle bottom in late 2002 (confirmed in March 2003) it was a cinch that the next 2-3 years, at least, would be mostly bullish. Certainly this has proven true to date.

Now for a word of warning on 2004: While I do expect a continuation of the uptrend for at least the first few months of the year (temporary set-backs notwithstanding), the second half of the year will be slightly less propitious, and especially in the September-November time frame. The final months of 2004 could witness another significant decline (mini-bear market) and I caution investors to watch out for the autumn months. This is because the 10-year cycle is due to bottom in the last part of 2004. The 10-year cycle by itself isn't particularly dominant and I rather suspect this year's cycle bottom will be relatively mild. The 10-year cycle certainly isn't as powerful or as dominant as the 12-year cycle which bottomed last year. But still, the fact that a relatively long-term cycle is coming down hard in the final months of 2004 should give us cause for proceeding with extreme caution heading into the Fall of the year.

The first half of 2004 (through May or June) should be propitious for rising stock prices and rising commodity prices in general. This means gold, silver, and base metals should join in the overall uptrend as they did for the better part of 2003.

Gold should have a beneficial Year 2004 for the most part. This can be seen in the long-term weekly chart of spot gold, with its rising 30/60/90-week moving averages. These dominant intermediate-term averages reflect a rising cycle, trend, and momentum that should carry gold for several months ahead.




Allow me to make a forecast for jewelry sales for the coming year. According to the London Financial Times, sales of platinum jewelry have skyrocketed while gold jewelry sales have lagged behind. I find this astounding if only because it underscores the folly of human nature. Why on earth would anyone pay ridiculous dollars for platinum jewelry (which looks like plain old silver to most people) over the beauty and luster of gold? Only because platinum is sky-rocketing in price and the nouveau-rich are always more impressed with price rather than practical utility or natural beauty when it comes to decor. On this score, I predict that gold jewelry sales will finally start to improve again in 2004 as more and more people finally wake up to the great investment potential as well as natural beauty of the "gift that keeps on giving."

In last year's Forecast I predicted that copper would be one of the better-performing natural resources. For 2004 (and beyond) I foresee a comeback for the "black diamond" -- coal. Coal hasn't exactly been a glamorous investment area over the last 15 or so years, but now the tide is turning in its favor once again. I note with interest that after over a decade of trending below its 3/6/9-year moving averages without even peeking above them, coal has not broken above all three and these moving averages are now in the proper alignment for a bull market cycle to begin. After possibly a sharp pullback in the first or second quarter, coal should continue to make higher highs and lead the base minerals out of the long-term doldrums. Incidentally, this has drastic implications for the expansion of industry, particularly overseas, most notably China.




Speaking of foreign countries, here are my predictions for the stock indices of the major countries for 2004 (generally speaking): Australia mostly up; China sideways for much of the year, then up; Israel mostly up; Japan mostly up; Singapore mostly up; France sideways-to-higher; Germany mostly up; Russia sideways, then up; United Kingdom mostly up.

For U.S. real estate I envision a continuation of the mind-boggling bull market through the better part of 2004, with perhaps a dip in the third and/or fourth quarter. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this "dip" turned out to be a sharp correction in the Fall of the year, perhaps not unlike the 1987 crash. While real estate looks extremely good heading into the first part of 2004, the problem is that it has enjoyed a near-linear rise for the past couple of years with hardly a "correction" along the way. I believe a correction is forthcoming in real estate, though it will probably be only temporary. For reference, note the strong appearance of the Morgan Stanley REIT Index (RMS), which I use for following the U.S. real estate trend. The 10/20/30-week moving averages in this chart are "textbook" perfect at the moment.



Clif Droke is the editor of the Durban Deep/XAU Report, a daily forecast and analysis of DROOY, GLG, KGC, XAU, HUI, and GOX written especially for day traders. He is also the author of numerous books on finance and investing, including the top-selling "Moving Averages Simplified." Visit his web site for free samples of his analysis at www.clifdroke.com


-- Posted Friday, January 2 2004

[gedy] 01/1/2004 10:44

Writing call options on blue chip stocks that you hold becomes a good way to safely increase your income if you don't want to sell your blue chip holdings. It will need good timing and you may have to bail out fast, keep you spreadsheets up to date and be ready to jump when limits are hit!

[the psychic] 01/1/2004 10:30

Forcast for the dollar - £1 - $1.78 Will it hit $2 or more?

[karzy] 01/1/2004 00:52

Nasdaq to rally into March, Tony Blair to quit in May (7 years),European crops to fail, stock market to collapse on October eclipse. Prince Philip contracts rabies from dog bite (Dottie or florence). Happy new year e', I don't think it will be as prosperous as the last!

Oh and Mrs. Clinton for President.

[vision88] 31/12/2003 17:23

my bank account statements expand by 6 inches

[energyi] 31/12/2003 17:12

NO JANUARY RALLY?

The chance of a January Effect occurring next month isn't much more optimistic.

The January Effect is the historical outperformance of value stocks during the month of January. It most often occurs among stocks that have succumbed to tax-loss selling late in the fourth quarter, have attractive valuations in January, and whose market capitalizations make them smallcap stocks. The problem heading into the end of year is that smallcap stocks have been on a tear and there just isn't much value out there.

As of last Friday, the S&P SmallCap 600 index {SML.X} was up 35.6% year-to-date. The S&P SmallCap 600/Barra Value index {CVK.X} was up 36.5 percent. These numbers indicate that what was once a bargain is no longer a steal anymore.

@:

[energyi] 31/12/2003 15:12

MarketVector's Prediction


@:

[energyi] 31/12/2003 14:39

FERNANDO's FORECAST (from OTA)

Forecast 2004: Neither Bull nor Bear, probably a Moose:

The narrow-range action the markets have given us in the latter half of this year is an indication of the type of action we should expect in the new year to come. Throughout the latter-half of the 90's and up until the summer of 2003, the market has provided some of the most awesome volatility ever seen combined with incredible volume, and the most ideal conditions for traders to thrive, both in a raging Bull and raging Bear market environment. In my opinion, the market has now entered a period of reflection that is likely to last at least another year, perhaps more. Unlike the extremely tight ranges in the latter half of this year, 2004 is likely to yield a tradable environment, but one that oscillates on the border between the Bull and Bear Markets, trading inside a 20-25% range (approx. 32-37% in the Naz), much narrower than in prior years. At this time, I still feel that the Nasdaq has permanently bottomed in 2002, the same as I did earlier this year, although I cannot say the same for the S&P and DOW.

Just as I had expected for 2003, I see 2004 as a "transition" year, as the market continues to digest the rise and fall of the Nasdaq and the accompanying financial/emotional highs and lows this imposed upon the investing public. I want to look back upon 2003 as a year that brought the toughest trading environment I ever seen, as there were countless "5-point S&P range" days that were quite excruciating to live through as a short-term trader. At this point, while '04 is likely to be neither Bull nor Bear, I do look forward to an exciting tradable market!

This will be the last Weekly Review of the Year. I wish you all a joyous holiday season, and will see you back here in '04.

Until next week: Good Luck!
Fernando Gonzalez

[m.t.glass] 30/12/2003 10:11

(a)
When tempted to sell, and if dealing costs allow, sell part only (say 70%).

If the remainder rises you smile and pocket a bit more.
If it drops you have the satisfaction of knowing your majority decision was right all along, and any slippage now (while arranging your final exit) is on a much smaller (3 vs 10) multiple than the overall rise was ;-)

(b)
Every time you react to whatever selling signal it is you typically react to, keep a note of how you would have done by acting one day sooner and one day later (or one week, one hour, whatever). If subsequent analysis shows any sort of consistent advantage in reacting earlier or later, modify your future reading of signals accordingly.

mtg
(preaching what he doesn't practice)

Meanwhile, be happy that quitting too soon is a much better sin than quitting too late ;-)

[skyship] 30/12/2003 09:53

RESOLUTION: TO FINALLY LEARN TO RUN MY PROFITS.

I have always sold too soon, which means I have to work twice or three times as hard to search out new replacement investments - many of which may end up performing no better than the one I just sold because I couldn't resist banking a 10% turn!

Once again my best performing assets in 2003 were the SPLIT Zeros I bought and HELD.

Q1:Anyone got any advice as to how I can train myself to RUN THOSE PROFITS?
Q2:Anyone else got any New Year Trading Resolutions from which we might all benefit?

[coffeedragon] 29/12/2003 16:25

Best wishes ADVFNers for 2004

Growth with excellent dividend:

Ben Bailey (BBC) 392p target 465p
Persimmon (PSN) 530p target 600p
Hardy and Hansons (HDYS) 467p target 520p

and speculative stocks for 2004

CMS Webview (CWV) 12p target 49p
African Diamonds (AFD) 17p target 91p
Offshore Telecom (OST) .08p target 6p
Prelude Trust (PDT) 69p target 120p

Worst for 2004? US Dollar

All IMHO, DYOR etc.... review in Dec 2004!

[garden gnome] 29/12/2003 11:40

Seems that someone else likes HIF, 2 x 650k buys just gone through

[mr.oz] 29/12/2003 09:00

Agree with gg - HIF 's year - multi B.

[the jaber man] 28/12/2003 22:23

ost and cwv

[190763] 28/12/2003 22:03

CYH and OST

[isis] 28/12/2003 22:00

Bears get skinned again..........gold back to $350/60..........bannanas..45p 1LB.........

[smelgy] 28/12/2003 21:56

Hi there!

For what it's worth these are my humble forecasts for 2004:-

HIGH LOW
FTSE 100 5025 4195
£/$ 2.0015 1.6695
DOW JONES 12025 9575
UK INTEREST RATES 5% 3.75%
GOLD (US$) 485 395
S&P 1300 953

..........And that's it!

Good night

[outsider] 28/12/2003 20:40

My forecast is Ofex will have significantly more attention paid to it by investors.


Simon Brickles....Ex-head of AIM has joined

Luke Johnson has bought shares & Joined as Non-Exec

5 market makers will make a market in 2004, including Winterfloods in all stocks.

Ofex themselves have just raised £1m & the share price is near an all time high.

Interest has positvely picked up in December, expect it to continue until the Winterfloods arrive in Spring.