Gcp Student Living Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 16/9/2019 07:25

Thanks - that was under my radar, certainly!

[outlawinvestor] 16/9/2019 07:17

This nice RNS flew in under the radar late on Friday.

Following the cash offer for Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (UK, constituent) by Agapier Investments Limited (non-constituent) being declared wholly unconditional, please see details of affected indexes and effective dates below:
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (UK, 0562254) will be deleted from the FTSE 250 Index.
GCP Student Living (UK, B8460Z4) will be added to the FTSE 250 Index and removed from the FTSE SmallCap Index.

All changes effective from 18 September 2019.

[maddox] 13/9/2019 10:23

The Govt now is aiming to increase the number of International Students to 600k from the current 450k over the next 10 years.



On the basis that PBSA beds are being built at a rate of 25,000 per year - and UK demand is still rising - it appears that the under-supply that supports rental growth is likely to be maintained.

Regards, Maddox

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 06:57

Edison research note:

[maddox] 11/9/2019 11:56

Excellent news today for all UK Universities and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) providers. The Govt is to change the rules to now allow foreign students studying in the UK to stay-on to work for a further two years unrestricted. There are currently 450k international students in the UK. This move will undoubtedly boost numbers as the UK has been far less attractive than other top destinations, specifically Australia and US, that already allow students to stay-on to work.

This thankfully reverses the disastrous bone-headed approach introduced by Theresa May as Home Secretary to require students to leave after 4 months. May saw students as a soft target to hit her hopeless immigration targets - despite the hard evidence that very few were over-stayers.

This move applies to all trusted higher education providers and will thus exclude the dodgy language schools that were flouting the immigration rules.



Regards, Maddox

[jonwig] 11/9/2019 06:20

Restrictions on overseas students to be eased:

[jonwig] 11/7/2019 11:12

Whilst I do agree with that, business execution can't be overlooked. ESP in particular can't seem to get it quite right! (Nor the fund which went bust.)

[maddox] 11/7/2019 11:08

A few select quotes from the Guardian today.....

'Applications from Chinese students to study at UK universities have gone up 30% since last year'

'The Ucas figures also revealed an increase in the number of British 18-year-olds applying for places, up 1% on last year to 275,520 despite a 1.9% fall in the overall 18-year-old population of the UK. EU applicants have also risen 1%, to 50,650 despite the Brexit uncertainty, and Ucas reported a record number of applicants from outside the EU at 81,340, an increase of 8%.'



Market fundamentals appear strong, and this also highlights the defensive nature of this sub-sector of the property market.

Regards Maddox

[jonwig] 03/6/2019 06:00

Why it flopped the pricing:

[jonwig] 31/5/2019 07:22

It certainly is! They were careful not to say what their target amount was, but -

The acquisition price of Scape Canalside will be established by an independent valuation process and is expected to be in excess of £90 million. In the event the Placing does not proceed the Directors expect to fund the entire acquisition of Scape Canalside with new borrowings. In such circumstance, the Group's LTV would increase to the mid-30s% level as the Company completes its forward funding pipeline over the next 12 to 18 months.

LTV was 26% at 31/12, so over 30% is quite a jump.

[suetballs] 31/5/2019 07:11

Only raised £5m in the placing. Surely this must be a disappointing amount?
Suet

[jonwig] 14/5/2019 07:04

Citywire on the proposed funraising:

[jonwig] 13/5/2019 07:10

Another placing, at 162.5p, which looks ambitious to me! They haven't said how many shares are being offered, but they obviously know, since they say it may close early!

[jonwig] 26/3/2019 16:55

Edison initiates research:

[jonwig] 25/3/2019 06:33

This wasn't mentioned in the results:

Real estate investment trust GCP Student Living (DIGS) is facing a ‘big barrier’ to development from London mayor Sadiq Khan’s clampdown on direct-let student accommodation.

As part of his ‘London Plan’ Khan will force student accommodation developers, including GCP's, to partner with universities. Developers will be forced to offer a percentage of affordable rooms as part of their plans and face a ‘clawback’ penalty if the government decides they have made excessive financial gains from a newbuild.


It will go the way of all rent controls, squeezing supply and driving up prices.

[jonwig] 20/3/2019 07:17

H1 results:

...pleased to report a period of strong performance for the Company. The focus on assets in and around London has delivered the Company’s strongest NAV performance for an interim period since 2015, with the NAV per share rising by 5.9% to 157.93 pence per share over the six-month period.
...
The Company benefits from a conditional forward purchase agreement to acquire Scape Canalside, a high-specification, new-build asset located immediately adjacent to Queen Mary University of London. With the property expected to open to students for the 2019/20 academic year, the Board and Gravis are considering the optimum way to finance its acquisition ahead of 30 June 2019.



So fundraising imminent?
And signs of cash drag - obvious, given development work.
But not a problem.
NAV 157.93p.

[jonwig] 05/2/2019 07:08

Quarterly update:



"GCP Student, the UK's first REIT focused on student residential assets, today announces that at close of business on 31 December 2018, the unaudited estimated EPRA net asset value per ordinary share of the Company was 157.93 pence. The EPRA net asset value includes income for the period (cum-income) and does not include a provision for an accrued dividend for the quarter to 31 December 2018.

The EPRA net asset value (ex-income) was 156.4 pence per ordinary share as at that date, representing a quarterly increase of 3.2%."

- so asset valuation still on upward curve. Not many property companies trade at a premium these days; I think this one ought to!

[jonwig] 07/11/2018 07:16

"GCP Student, the UK's first REIT focused on student residential assets, today announces that at close of business on 30 September 2018, the unaudited estimated EPRA net asset value per ordinary share of the Company was 153.02 pence. The EPRA net asset value includes income for the period (cum-income) and does not include a provision for an accrued dividend for the quarter to 30 September 2018.

The EPRA net asset value (ex-income) was 151.49 pence per ordinary share as at that date, representing a quarterly increase of 2.6%."

2.6% per qtr is a 10.8% pa increase, which looks a bit surprising!

[jonwig] 13/9/2018 06:37

Edison research note on FY results:

[maddox] 10/9/2018 20:23

Good article in Citiwire: 'Brexit won’t bother investors in student property, says GCP'
By Michelle McGagh 07 Sep, 2018

[spangle93] 10/9/2018 07:31

Thanks jonwig.

Had these since IPO, so I've been very pleased with the way they have invested and managed the money they've raised to date

[jonwig] 10/9/2018 07:17

Spangle - no, it won't be an open offer. It brings them to the limit for a non-preemptive share issue.

[spangle93] 10/9/2018 07:15

New placing to raise £55MM



Placing available to qualified investors, but not clear whether that's all shareholder. My guess is that's you'd probably know already if you were one of them.

Good news on the occupancy levels though, and with Scape Bloomsbury taking students ahead of schedule

[jonwig] 06/9/2018 07:42

Annual results:



Still showing a small premium to NAV of 149.12p. Dividend for the year 5.95p (uncovered because of development assets).

Strong hold.

[maddox] 05/9/2018 09:16

Hi jonwig,

Yes spot on, ironically her recent trip to India sought to undo some of the previous damage she'd done when Home Secretary. The number of Indian students coming to the UK collapsed after her appallingly unfair deportation of Indian students. In one particularly stark case they kicked out a student starting the third year of a three year BSc, having already invested heavily in the first two years. The UK's reputation for fair play will take a lot of restoration after that pointless fiasco.

Twelve months ago Amber Rudd commissioned a report into the value the foreign students to the UK economy - it's due out around about now. Hopefully, the Visa restrictions will be relaxed and foreign student numbers removed from the immigration stats - this would be the sensible thing to do, but I'm not optimistic.

Cheers Maddox