Gcp Infrastructure Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[ptolemy] 08/9/2022 15:01

Thanks for responses.

[donald pond] 08/9/2022 13:52

The social housing sector isn't my favourite but the upshot is that councils have a legal obligation to provide it and they agree long term contracts with providers. But it is complex to manage, the service providers are always struggling and it's not something GCP have added to. In theory, it's good: you buy a house, do it up and then enter into a long lease with a body backed by government funding. In practice, not so simple

[williamcooper104] 08/9/2022 13:35

Being a junior lender to the sector is still pretty risky

[rik shaw] 08/9/2022 13:15

There is no direct comparison with SOHO/CSH as GCP do not have significant equity interest in their investments. For the subordinated debt portion (61%) of their investments they quote incremental exposure to shareholder interests c.12%. (see June 2022 factsheet).

[williamcooper104] 08/9/2022 12:48

See SOHO/CSH Assisted/homeless - it's all about selling properties for a huge premium because it has a lease in place with an SPV type charity who commit to pay away almost all their surplus in rental payments The regulator is reviewing the sector and has made many unfavourable comments

[williamcooper104] 08/9/2022 12:46

Assisted living is a nightmare sector that's going to come under huge pressure

[ptolemy] 08/9/2022 12:26

I see 10% of the portfolio is supported social housing. It's important and has a positive impact on people's lives but what's the investment story there? How does the fund benefit by holding an asset provided to vulnerable people?

[nimbo1] 08/9/2022 10:55

there is a large overhang here - can get a quote of 106.45 to buy 400,000 shares. watch for a clear out of volume is my best guess so a turnaround can happen. couple of large trades printed today.

[cocopah] 07/9/2022 18:59

I guess we will see what happens tomorrow (Truss’s plan)and whether that has any bearing on the share price. From memory I think the dividend cover was just over 1. 🤷‍a94;️

[donald pond] 07/9/2022 17:59

I think the difference is that when that last happened the NAV was on a downward trend driven largely by weak power prices. Now it is moving up every quarter. I suspect that also helps their dividend coverage.

[cocopah] 07/9/2022 16:46

I guess it depends upon whether this back-tests the £1.02 and 97p before recovering.🤷‍♂ᥧ9;🤔

[apollocreed1] 07/9/2022 15:58

The last time GCP went to a discount it spent a few weeks in freefall before recovering, so I think need to wait a bit before coming in.

[donald pond] 07/9/2022 14:59

I was at the Stifel infrastructure conference today and there is absolutely no reason why GCP isn't sitting on the same premium as it's peers. It should be 120, this is an opportunity imo

[apparition1] 01/9/2022 17:36

Over the last 5 days FTSE 350 is down 4.8% and GCP 1.8%
Over last 3 days both are down by around 2.7% because GCP went up a penny and then came down again.
I'd say not too surprising

[cocopah] 01/9/2022 16:34

Why the drop in the share price this week?

[donald pond] 20/7/2022 08:47

Good new note here
hxxps://quoteddata.com/research/gcp-infrastructure-improving-outlook-and-room-to-grow-mc/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GCP%20Infrastructure%20PRO%20-%20190722&utm_content=GCP%20Infrastructure%20PRO%20-%20190722+CID_95ff02817f20a9425fa5547b8d536a5c&;utm_source=Research%20note&utm_term=view%20report

I like this: having sat on the board of GCP for years I know the manager and the valuation agent, Mazars, are both inherently cautious on valuations:

"The adviser sees potential for further NAV progression in coming months. The need to decarbonise the UK economy provides a supportive backdrop, and the adviser has identified a substantial pipeline of potential investments that should underpin the continued success of the fund."

[panshanger1] 18/7/2022 10:41

Nice pop today getting back close to NAV now

[spangle93] 15/7/2022 08:27

research this week from Kepler

[donald pond] 14/7/2022 08:36

I was hoping for more but valuations have always been ultra conservative here. To be able to buy a 6.5% div which is uncorrelated to the wider economy at a discount is unbelievable in this market. And the solar assets will be killing it right now

[killing_time] 14/7/2022 08:18

NAV up 1.38% to 114.31p

[mad foetus] 13/7/2022 10:36

I've added today. Suspect we get a sizeable uplift to NAV in next day or two. It seemed to be flagged in half year results

[donald pond] 21/6/2022 08:40

I thought it read very well. A tweak to the inflation and power price assumptions would add 10p to NAV. In my experience the valuation here has always been very conservative, but reading between the lines I'd hope for another uplift in the new NAV due next month

[spangle93] 21/6/2022 08:31

12% NAV gain over 6 months reporting period, and as much positivity in the forward look as is possible in these uncertain times.

[donald pond] 16/6/2022 08:17

Interims are due but NAV historically has only been updated quarterly and a new NAV isn't due until mid July. The energy price hedge is expiring though and that may have an impact. We also don't know what future power predictions will be: historically the least big term predictions used by all funds for valuation purposes are now looking very conservative indeed.

[ec2] 09/6/2022 21:16

Would appear that interim results are due to be announced as early as tomorrow. Anticipation is that there could be some further positive update on the NAV.