Gcp Infrastructure Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 29/1/2024 09:41

Nothing to do but wait. NAV stable, dividend decent and discount to NAV slowly closing.

[donald pond] 29/1/2024 09:24

Also the risk is much reduced as there are no new investments being made. So they hold a portfolio of assets that they've had for many years and know well

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 08:47

Personally looking/hoping for 80p+ on GCP, agree it's succeeding in not mis-stepping.

Paid to wait.

[spangle93] 29/1/2024 08:18

Sorry, wrong thread

[spangle93] 29/1/2024 08:10

Another quarter goes by. Still no reduction in dividend, or dramatic cliff fall of NAV...

There's a webcast later this week to discuss the results " Gravis will be holding a webinar on 1 February 2024 at 11.00am". Details in the link.

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 07:10

Not read it all:

"Notwithstanding the lower electricity price forecasts, the portfolio continues to perform materially in line with the Company's expectations."

[donald pond] 20/1/2024 08:51

https://x.com/donaldpond6/status/1748326593955594263?s=46&t=YfR7OyhMlqZLtI-h86iCxA

[donald pond] 20/1/2024 08:50

On the subject of Gravis selling, they do have a sizeable open ended U.K. infra fund which invests in the sector. The last factsheet showed that it had dropped in size by around £200m last year and most of that was redemptions, so they will have been selling around £7m of GCP and £4/5m of GABI if they've been selling pari passu. I saw yesterday that Schroders Greencoat were launching "semi-liquid" infra funds for institutional investors. Interesting to see if they use funds to build new projects or acquire some of the existing ones trading at huge discounts

[hindsight] 19/1/2024 17:54

The gilt discounts to par are very attractive to HNWs on 45%, must be sucking a lot of money up

[cc2014] 19/1/2024 16:56

Rathbones/Investec have around 102m
Fidelity 64m
Gravis 42m
West Yorks Pension Fund 38.4m

It won't be Gravis. (lol).
It won't be West Yorks Pension fund - they never sell anything across any stock

So, that leaves Rathbones and Fidelity. I assume it's Rathbones selling down a few as they've decided they've got too many as part of the merger and I assume since it's a specific number they have finished.

[chucko1] 19/1/2024 16:11

Quilter only had 28mn shares. If it was a private client broker advising clients to get out, or getting out on their behalf - great.

It seems that all the fixed income-like advice given by such entities of late has been utterly hopeless. The more they advise, the more opportunities there are for the not-hard-of-thinking-for-oneself.

[junior21] 19/1/2024 14:35

You'd expect the above has been acting as a handbrake on the share price. Hopefully, we'll get to see some steady rises now. Time will tell.

[cc2014] 19/1/2024 10:28

Significant 37m share trade just been reported at 68.5p

I suspect the order has already been worked and has been so maybe since the start of the year thus explaining the weakness in the share price.

There are very few owners of this amount of stock. Likely to be Rathbones/Investec or Quilter imho.

[donald pond] 12/1/2024 08:51

RBC have put a TP of 90p. Should get dividend confirmation and AGM notice soon.

[cc2014] 13/12/2023 11:49

After reading the annual report in full I conclude there are no new worrying issues and some of the existing issues have been de-risked. I also got the impression there is a much greater level of transparency this year than last year which is something that has always nagged away at me with GCP.


In the end I think the NAV is going to creep up from here as interest rates fall and the discount to NAV will close as well. There are a bunch of trusts on large discounts and this one is no different. Happy to hold and collect the dividend whilst the discount to NAV closes.

[panshanger1] 13/12/2023 11:19

Reasonably positive I would have thought but market unconvinced Over 10% divided at 7 pence penciled in for next year

[speedsgh] 13/12/2023 08:50

@r_o_t_a

Good spot. Thanks. Have now edited original post.

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/12/2023 08:46

Speedsgh,

Not sure if you have quoted the wrong NAV in post 860

"- NAV per share at 30 September 2023 of 109.79 pence (30 September 2022: 112.80 pence)."

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 08:44

I think they'd prefer to sell off social housing tbh.

[speedsgh] 13/12/2023 08:43

Indicative calculation on proposed min £50m capital return by end of 2024...

Min return of capital £50,000,000 / current shares in issue 867,812,650 = 5.76p per share

[spectoacc] 13/12/2023 08:39

"Underlying portfolio performance also remains strong, with loans continuing to be serviced."

Which is good.

May come down to how easily they raise the £150m - albeit we won't know if it's the good stuff or the less good stuff that they're selling. My guess is, whatever they do sell will be sold at or around NAV.

[speedsgh] 13/12/2023 08:36

~ NAV at 30/9/23: 109.79p (30/9/22: 112.80p)
~ Dividend target for 2024 held at 7.00p
~ Plan to realise 15% of portfolio to materially reduce RCF and make a capital return to shareholders of at least £50m by end of 2024.

Annual report and financial statements -

Andrew Didham, Chairman of GCP Infra, commented:

The wider financial market in which the Company operates has continued to face significant challenges. Against a backdrop of increased inflation, higher interest rates and high energy prices, the Company has continued to deliver stable and predictable income for shareholders through its focus on debt investments in infrastructure assets vital to the efficient operation of modern society.

The Company generated total profit and comprehensive income for the year of £30.9 million (30 September 2022: £140.3 million) and paid a dividend of 7.0 pence per ordinary share (30 September 2022: 7.0 pence). For the forthcoming financial year, the Company has set a dividend target1 of 7.0 pence per share. At the year end, the Company's share price was 67.70 pence, representing a 38.3% discount2 to NAV (30 September 2022: 97.80 pence, representing a 13.3% discount2 to NAV). The Board believes the discount at which the Company's shares have traded to the stated NAV is not reflective of the strength in the Company's underlying investment portfolio, with the effective yield considerably higher than the discount rate on investments determined by the independent Valuation Agent. Underlying portfolio performance also remains strong, with loans continuing to be serviced.

The Board and the Investment Adviser are committed to the Company's intentions to re-allocate capital towards reducing gearing, buying back shares while they remain an attractive investment opportunity and disposing of assets to rebalance the portfolio and generate funds. Subject to market conditions and the ability to agree acceptable terms, the Board has adopted a capital allocation policy of realising c.15% (£150 million) of the portfolio to rebalance sectors and reduce equity exposures, and to apply the funds towards a material reduction in the RCF and facilitate the return of capital to shareholders of at least £50 million before the end of the calendar year 2024, whilst maintaining the dividend target1. The Board believes that this capital allocation policy will underline the Company's position as a leading investor in infrastructure debt, with a strong focus on sustainable investments.

[someuwin] 15/11/2023 07:11

15 November 2023

GCP Infra is pleased to announce the publication of its investor report, which is available at www.gcpinfra.com .

At 30 September 2023:

-- The net asset value was, as previously announced, 109.79 pence per ordinary share;
-- The Company was exposed to a diversified and partially inflation protected portfolio of 51 investments with an unaudited valuation of GBP1.0 billion; and

-- The portfolio had a weight-adjusted average annualised yield of 7.9%, principal outstanding of GBP1.0 billion and an average life of ten years.

In the quarter to 30 September 2023, the Company completed a refinancing of two existing loan notes secured against two waste-wood biomass projects, valued at c. GBP85 million as at 31 March 2023 and committed to a new GBP50 million loan note as part of a syndicated facility supporting the same, and one additional, biomass project. This refinancing generated GBP50 million of net cash proceeds that were used to repay the Company's revolving credit facility. Prepayment fees and valuation impacts totalling c. GBP10 million led to a c. 1.2 pence per ordinary share uplift to the Company's net asset value. At 30 September 2023, the Company had GBP104 million (30 June 2023: GBP154 million) outstanding under its revolving credit arrangements.

Share buyback programme

The Company remains committed to pursuing buyback opportunities in line with the strategy that has been set out previously, and to benefit from the investment opportunity that the Company's shares offer at the current price. At 30 September 2023, the Company had bought back 13,565,019 shares.

Company broker

On 10 October 2023, the Company announced the appointment of RBC Capital Markets ("RBC") as the Company's joint corporate broker, to work alongside Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited. RBC's appointment was the result of a process that was run by the Company to identify and appoint a party to further support the delivery of the Company's strategy.

[badtime] 14/11/2023 17:11

Nice tick up today

[panshanger1] 09/11/2023 15:31

Ex dividend today