Gatekeeper Share Discussion Threads

[arthurly] 17/8/2006 20:00

Be interested to know if your figures equate to mine in post 240 serratia.

Don't know of any recent broker upgrades - should be one as they seem to have outperformed previous forecasts.

In December house brokers were forecasting turnover of $27.5m and pretax profit of $3.49m for 2006.
Should be much better than that now imho.

For 2007 they have $37.2m turnover and $5.05m pretax profit. Again looks to be way behind likely outcome.

[serratia] 17/8/2006 18:58

I've run my figures forward and would be interested to know if there have been any reports on future prospects. Just want to cross check my calculations.Any info appreciated.Will add my thoughts if interested.

Regards

Serratia

[scburbs] 16/8/2006 13:37

I have added another £150pp at 46p (47.2p including finance to Dec). Significantly undervalued. I will look to add more as margin becomes available.

[arthurly] 11/8/2006 09:07

Think this is still quite undiscovered by the herd. If they have known about it they probably think they're a boring maker of supermarket trollies and not a company that sees itself as an RFID applications leader in the next few years.

After those results I'm looking at around $34m turnover and $5m pre-tax for the year. That would mean H2 turnover up 48% on H2 last year.(the H2 target is a much more difficult target than H1 where 117% increase was achieved).

And next year ? Well just a wild guess at this stage but I'd think 35% increase in turnover and 50% in profit giving $46m turnover and $7.5m profit.

BUT the company has been promising new products to be released around the end of this year. I'm reckoning at least one will be outside of supermarkets (baggage handling, maybe, - a clue from attending a transportation conference earlier in the year), another might be re providing management information re trolley movements - they are certainly working on this but the brokers reckon they might need one more upgrade to the GS2 wheel first.

So lets say do another $5m turnover and $0.5m profit from new products (building up a lot further in later years).

So total $51m turnover (up 50%) and $8m profit (up 60%). Gives around £2.9m post tax next year.

So that would give P/E of just over 11 for this year and just under 7 for next year.

[arthurly] 09/8/2006 08:11

Yep you're probably right. I'm good on limp excuses. But usually an RNS put out after an AGM to at least say all resolutions passed.

[typo56] 08/8/2006 21:17

Arthurly, I'm sorry but I think being a nominee shareholder is a bit of a limp excuse. Notice of the AGM is of course contained within the 2005 Annual Report which was published on 29th June. An RNS was put out on that date to inform us.

The investor relations site is here (hover over the Investor Relations tab for sub pages):-



And the link for the 2005 Annual Report (which is worth a read) is:-

[arthurly] 07/8/2006 20:44

Well apparently the AGM was today - Would have been nice to be informed but like most on here I'm a nominee shareholder


Annual General Meeting
11.00 AM at the Threadneedles Hotel
5 Threadneedle Street
London EC2R 8AY

These guys seem to really know how to run a business but seem to be awful at keeping shareholders up to date with news about the company

[kidney] 07/8/2006 14:04

oh,and I forgot to add:fires and resignations and increased costs because of sky rocketing oil prices to name but a few of the things that have gone wrong for most of the companies I have ever invested in.You never can tell.
The stock market is ony predictable upto a certain point and then the invisibles/intangibles kick in!

[kidney] 07/8/2006 14:00

scburbs...what do you think the share price should go this year to to reflect these earnings?
Have just thought,maybe it's a good thing that GKR are in a rather boring business according to the market...makes the share price less volatile.Also,this is an intelligent calm thread with some of the best brains on ADVN on it...(me excluded,of course!)
The company looks set to go IMO,barring scandals or misterious director sell offs or court cases.We will see.

[scburbs] 07/8/2006 13:26

Agreed, control of costs looks reasonably good and ratio of expenses to turnover should fall further as turnover rises improving net profit margin.

"General and administrative expenses declined as a percentage of turnover to 33% (June 2005: 52%). Selling expense decreased as a percentage of turnover
year-on-year, from 16% to 10%."

[wiganer] 07/8/2006 13:21

That thought had occurred to me; given all the costs of their expansion and business development, the H1 results are actually pretty stellar.

[arthurly] 07/8/2006 13:18

H1 trading result about $1.6m better than last year. Only need H2 to be about $1m better than last year to achieve $5m pre tax. Should do that easily imho.

For any newbies on here, H2 is traditionally far better than H1 - that's when big supermarket groups spend the cash.

What also needs to be remembered is that quite a lot of expenditure at present re new products to be released towards the end of the year (probably branching out into airport baggage handling RFID etc). All of this will be deducted in arriving at profit so H1 is even better than it looks at first glance.

[wiganer] 07/8/2006 13:05

sc- my mistake, had used market cap from LSE website, which says £7.2m. What was I thinking, lifting info from such amateurs?!

Anyways, as you say, the balance sheet isn't key, though is always nice to have some protection there, which GKR have.

[scburbs] 07/8/2006 12:58

Excellent results and exceptional operating cashflow.

It is very impressive that a company which is growing at the rate of GKR, i.e. turnover up 117%, has generated more operating cashflow than it has accounting profits. Normally a large amount of profits would be funding working capital increases and you might expect the company to be cash flow negative as they were in 2005.

Looks good for further rises, although spread continues to be disappointingly wide.

Wiganer, market cap at 48p is c.£22m vs TNAV of £7.6m (the numbers you quoted are US$). TNAV is not a good valuation basis for GKR as the value is all in the intangibles and the business does not appear to require a significant tangible asset base.

[kidney] 07/8/2006 11:27

Results rather than trading statement..a bit of a surprise albeit a nice one.
However,volume low,as usual and I don't expect this to shoot up,as it should,because GKR just has'nt rung a bell with investors YET!!
They have been silently preparing themselves for expansion,new office and production facility and they have some serious clients.I would welcome a move into Airports and further into ferries,trains and even hospital and warehouse trolleys.
Maybe I should hang onto these for a few years rather than sell them simply because the share movement has been so slow and dull since IPO
LOL to all holders

[wiganer] 07/8/2006 10:46

Mike- also worth noting the overall balance sheet figures:

NAV: $17.7m

TNAV: $14.5m

So, the market cap is pretty much covered by TNAV.

That is anomalous for a company starting to deliver serious profits and positive cash flow.

[wiganer] 07/8/2006 10:42

Great figures, and excellent delivery by management of their strategy.

I'm back in at 48p. Can't see them staying sup-50p for long.

[mikehardman] 07/8/2006 10:38

very nice, too

Highlights:
•Turnover increased by 117% to $12.7m (June 2005: $5.9m)
•European turnover increased by 800% to $3.7m (June 2005: $0.4m)
•Net profits increased by 173% to $0.6m (June 2005: loss of $0.9m)
•Positive operating cash flows of $1.2m (June 2005: negative $1.3m)
•Net cash of $8.3m (31 December 2005: $7.9m)

"order pipeline remains exceptionally strong and bodes well for the rest of 2006 and beyond"

[unionhall] 07/8/2006 10:23

interims out - better than a trading update !!!

[arthurly] 04/8/2006 16:31

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a very good trading statement next week.

It is a bit frustrating as Kidney said, holding this share - they don't seem to be bothered to release RNS's so news tends to get put out late with accounts. But that does give some reassurance as well. They're not interested in manipulating the share price upwards in any way.

Reckon they'll absolutely smash last years H1 which is a very weak target.

[labpine] 04/8/2006 16:18

Don't worry the spread will come down it increased today because of the article in IC:

4 August 2006

GATEKEEPER SYSTEMS (GKR)


California-based Gatekeeper Systems joined Aim via a placing at 48p a share in December 2004. It supplies shopping-trolley wheels that lock when they receive a digitally encoded signal, which stops thieves wheeling them away without paying. Users in the US and Europe include Wal-Mart, Target, Tesco and Lidl and, last year, US sales rose from $9.88m to $15.68m (£8.4m) while European sales rose from $1.84m to $4.65m. In addition, Gatekeeper made two small acquisitions in 2005, one of which now gives it access to the Canadian market.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ord price: 42p Market value: £18.6m
Touch: 41-43p 12-month High: 54p Low: 33p
Dividend yield: nil PE ratio: 18
Net asset value: 39¢ Net cash: US$7.87m




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year to Turnover Pre-tax Earnings Dividend
30 Apr (US$m) profit (US$m) per share (¢) per share (¢)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2004 11.73 1.15 3.52 nil
2005 20.33 2.60 4.22 nil
% change +73 +125 +20 -

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Market makers: 3
Traded on Aim



Seymour Pierce expects 2006 sales of $27.5m and profits of $3.49m. Buy.

[scburbs] 04/8/2006 13:18

I am looking forward to the statement. Would be nice to top up, but the spread is a bit wide at the moment.

"Outlook

The first quarter of 2006 has proven to be the best first quarter ever in
turnover and operating profitability in our company history. This has been
substantially due to the increased acceptance of our product in North America
and to the investment made in 2005 in the establishment of our European
headquarters and the pipeline of installations emanating therefrom. Our
management team has a proven track record of success and the Board feels that
the team is poised for another successful year."

[kidney] 04/8/2006 10:39

We seem to be waking up after a long sleep.This is certainly not a volatile share!In fact it is not traded nearly enough considering....Is this because of the general dislike of American companies on the LSE?As I see it.
Have held these fo a long time and am waiting to sell at 60p and buy into something more lively than this which is a pity as I had great hopes for Gatekeeper when I first purchased.
There are some companies that catch the punter's eye and others that remain supremely boring.This seems to be one of the latter type.
If only they would be a bit more open about their major customers and amounts of money involved...an rns here and there etc.then maybe things would brighten up a bit.
For what it's worth the moving averages point to a rise in share price finally and I hope we see a trading statement to boost the share price and make me happy.
LOL

[unionhall] 04/8/2006 10:23

GKR have a history of issuing a trading statement after period end.

We should have one next week or week after if they stay true to form.

[its the oxman] 12/7/2006 09:43

looks very good value down at these levels