Galliford Try Share Discussion Threads

[techno20] 09/8/2019 19:56

Been building a position steadily over the last few months. Averaging around £6, so frustrating to see the steady drop. Think the lower it goes the more likely the II’s will be pressuring the BOD to cut a deal. Could be close to 80-100% upside from here, so well worth being patient. If Sav does something with extending H2B or stamp duty that won’t do any harm either. GLA

[lord gnome] 09/8/2019 19:50

That's the way I see it Salpara111. If the next set of numbers are clean, with no additional skeletons in the cupboard, we can look forward to a rerating.

[salpara111] 09/8/2019 18:57

been watching for a while and was going to take a stake after the last update. I can only assume that the weakness is down to a lack of trust by the market that they wont just pull another debacle like Aberdeen out of the bag again.

[waspfactory] 09/8/2019 11:56

Welcome Lord Gnome - a good time to join us long suffering holders! Avg 900p for me :(

[shanklin] 17/7/2019 07:52

No position here but surely the key part of the RNS is

"The joint venture continues to negotiate on the significant claim with the client, while preparing to pursue this through formal dispute resolution should these talks not reach a satisfactory conclusion."

[gabsterx] 17/7/2019 07:25

Galliford Try plc, the housebuilding, regeneration and construction group, today provides the following update on trading for the year ended 30 June 2019. All data is as at 30 June 2019, unless otherwise stated, and all comparatives relate to the prior year equivalent period. The Group expects to announce its results for the full year on 11 September 2019.

Group

-- The Group continues to trade well and expects to report full year profit before tax in line with the current range of analysts' expectations(1) .

-- Full year result to include GBP40m of previously reported exceptional items(2) .
-- Linden Homes has maintained its sales rate and strong margin and continues to improve its customer satisfaction.

-- Partnerships & Regeneration continues to achieve strong growth ahead of targets, increasing both revenues and margins, and successfully completing the acquisition of the Strategic Team Group in Yorkshire.

-- The strategic review of Construction is now complete, and underlying operations are performing well.

-- Net debt at 30 June 2019 of GBP60m (2018: net cash GBP98m) with average net debt of GBP187m, in line with previous guidance for the full year.

Linden Homes

Linden Homes has maintained its good performance and strong margin and remains a four-star housebuilder.

The sales rate for the year ended 30 June 2019 was 0.56 per site per week from an average of 80 outlets (2018: 0.59 and 85). Linden Homes delivered 3,229 unit completions, including units in joint ventures (2018: 3,442 units), at an average private selling price of GBP351,000 (2018: GBP367,000), continuing to reflect our refocus on mid-range family houses in The Linden Collection and reduced exposure in central London. We have a strong carried forward position of 2,564 year end units (2018: 2,326) representing a value of GBP375m (2018: GBP366m). Linden Homes' landbank increased to 11,900 plots (2018: 11,400 plots), with all plots secured for the new financial year and 85% of plots secured for FY2021.

Partnerships & Regeneration

Partnerships & Regeneration made further excellent progress against its strategy of increasing geographic coverage and growing margins. At 30 June 2019 the business has a GBP1.0bn contracting order book (2018: GBP1.2bn) and mixed-tenure sales carried forward of GBP184m (2018: GBP160m). The landbank has increased by 61% to 5,300 plots (2018: 3,300 plots).

On 1 July 2019 we were delighted to complete the acquisition of Strategic Team Group (STG), giving us a mature operating platform in Yorkshire and expanding our presence in Cheshire. STG is a well-established regional business with 120 employees and a revenue in its last full year of circa GBP60m.

Construction

The restructure of our Construction business is complete, and the business is refocused to deliver an improved future performance. The result for the year includes contract write-downs and restructuring costs previously announced(2) .

The Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route is complete and delivering economic benefits to the region and receiving a positive reaction from all stakeholders. The joint venture continues to negotiate on the significant claim with the client, while preparing to pursue this through formal dispute resolution should these talks not reach a satisfactory conclusion.

The current order book is GBP2.9bn (2018: GBP3.3bn) with 88% of revenue for the new financial year secured (2018: 87%).

Graham Prothero, Chief Executive, commented:

"The Group has continued to perform well, supported by good housing demand. We expect our full year results and average net debt to be in line with previous guidance.

We are making strong progress against the operational targets we set out in 2017. We are reviewing our 2021 volume targets to ensure that growth is controlled, and our gearing is managed. Despite the weaker economic outlook, Linden Homes continues to see robust demand, with operating efficiencies driving strong margins and improving customer satisfaction. Partnerships & Regeneration is well on track with its aspirations for exciting growth in both revenue and margins, with some key wins in the period and further good opportunities across the market. We are pleased that the restructure of the Construction business is now complete. The business is now firmly focused on its core strengths of regional building operations, together with profitable operations in highways and water, all of which are now performing effectively. I look forward to the next financial year with the appropriate strategic priorities in place across the Group."

A conference call for Analysts and Investors will be held at 09:00am today (UK time).

[marksp2011] 17/7/2019 07:23

yes

Decent growth - drama is over

[nori_wasabi] 17/7/2019 07:11

The key points from the latest TA – On track and no more bad news.

[dr_smith] 12/7/2019 14:28

My guess is...
GFRD & Kier both are involved in non-house build sector, where Brexit casts a cloud over primarily public spending and also private investment/construction projects.

I also guess optimism over a Boris leadership with tax favorable policy changes is the positive slant for house builders.

I don't follow Kier but a quick google gives news 2 days ago:




The above Kier news likely also casts a shadow over GFRD as peers.

Next wednesday GFRD have trading update.
If it has an absence of Kier like bad news, that in itself may appease the market and give it a lift.. or atleast reverse the drop.

IMO ..and guesswork. :-)
Dave

[montycat11] 12/7/2019 13:45

Looking at all the other builders today..up considerably except gfrd and kier..they (the market) know something we don't or their awaiting results.. don't look good..

[deb81e] 11/7/2019 08:26

Full Year Results Trading Update next Wednesday 17th

[bugle4] 10/7/2019 08:55

Not massive but steady away.

"Cheshire West and Chester council has sold three parcels of land to Galliford Try’s partnerships operation which will build nearly 200 homes on the sites.

The contractor will build a mix of open market and affordable rent homes on the land, which it bought from the local authority. Financial details were not revealed."

[eeza] 04/7/2019 20:37

Not a good advert for the firm. Needs to get a grip.

[dr_smith] 03/7/2019 09:18

And the snapper could be a snapee - well, up 2.21% at mo' presumably opportunists being reminded from TEF offer that under priced builders can have overnight increased value (but still below worth for LTH).
GFRD perhaps up more than peers, given recent approach by BVS and they are already going through a transition period, so possibly more amenable to talks.
Dave

[warranty] 19/6/2019 09:03

Glad to see they're still increasing the house building side which should be the cash generator for years to come. Surprised we haven't heard more of the Bovis situation or is that completely dead now?

[thorpyuk] 17/6/2019 19:01

They've just snapped up a smaller builder:
hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/06/17/galliford-try-partnerships-buys-northern-builder/

[micos] 08/6/2019 05:27

Hi Derrick,I have been with I-web for five years now and have been very happy with the service

[cordwainer] 06/6/2019 13:17

I've tried to compare BBY with similar-ish GFRD and MGNS..

Galliford Try's results were back in September and the numbers scream value (or value trap?) after this year's 18% dividend cut (Feb), CEO exit to Crest Nicholson (Mar), profit warning giving £40m hit to consensus (April). And one commentator (Anh Hoang through Motley) points out that 85% of earnings are from its Linden Homes brand ... but i thought the bulk of revenue was still from infrastructure etc ? Adjusted p/e 3.87, div yield 11.8% (cover 1.57), share price approx. at or below NAV.. but again figures based on last year results and only 1 major contract award since, of modest proportions.

Briefly googling reviews for their house-building divisions, customers seem generally happier with Balfour (about 3.5 out of 5) than the other two, with Galliford's Linden Homes being the worst.

Morgan Sindall doing ok i guess better than BBY on some measures. Both have had contract wins recently since after their last results:
MGNS: Sellafield $1.6Bn over 20 yrs, Brentwood BC £500m over 30 years
BBY: £1.3Bn Dallas roads (presumably much higher rate of turnover?)

Finally it is the touted (but apparently successful) 'Build to Last' programme and the slightly better homebuyer's reviews that swings my vote in BBY's favour.

Certain broker targets for both BBY and MGNS currently have about 50% upside.

Just not sure if its a good sector to be in in macroeconomic terms right now but looking good value on paper.

I'm bit concerned tho about BBY's intangibles (25% - what are they? i tried looking back through company news), ROCE (5% vs MGNS 18.5%), and slightly negative cashflow at last results.

Any help, corrections, counterpoints and more forward looking summaries than my rough analysis welcome please :-)

[careful] 03/6/2019 10:31

Mr. Market is an over arrated cretin.
He has altzeimers and was not very intelligent to start with.

[careful] 03/6/2019 10:27

Looking at the share price collapse of Kier today.
Normally we could assume with so many large operators going bust it would be better for the survivors, such as GFRD.

There is work to be done and less competition.
The normal rules do not seem to apply here, but maybe long-term there is an opportunity.

[spudders] 29/5/2019 14:17

Mr Market screws over PI’s in general. The smart money is one step ahead of us! All we can do is sit it out or bail, for now I’m sitting tight as the sector is improving imo. Good luck all 🏠