Fuller Smith & Turner Share Discussion Threads

[m_kerr] 23/1/2023 18:27

it's already trading at a 65% discount to net assets. debt is very low, it will be one of the least geared in the sector. net debt of £130m vs a property value of near £1bn at the last reporting date. that low gearing will mainly be because they have limited capacity to take on more debt.

in assessing how much they'll lend, banks are more interested in free cash generation, not property value. and their cash generation is pitiful compared to the asset base. even if they generate say £30m of EBIT, you're talking about a return lower than you'd get leaving it in the bank.

in 2003, someone on here wrote 'Anyone want to join me in a takeover bid. We sell all the London properties, bank the money, and just keep making the beer.'. the brewery's gone, but he / she is still waiting to sell the pubs. !

[hybrasil] 23/1/2023 07:28

This mornings trading statement gave to a quick look here.
First thought. Is debt not a bit high?

The freehold value is not realised in the share price but with so much family control I don’t think it will be realised in real life either.

That said if they drop quite a bit this am I might buy a few

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2022 18:31

It's no longer the UK's best pub company imv.

Yes there was a time when you could make a case of that.

Look at the FSTA performance v Young's over the last few years.

[vaston] 29/11/2022 10:40

Anyone seen this …..

[1tx] 29/11/2022 10:37

There is sub zero chance of the holders of these listed "A" shares selling out at these prices either the NAV with property at current existing use values is approx £13.80 (Directors valuation,property is included at historic valuation in the balance sheet).This value takes account of the unlisted B & C shares.In effect this is an undervalued property share with just about the best pub company thrown in free!I hold shares in the other two contenders for the best pub group.Young & Co;the non voting YNGN shares remain inexpensive and unlisted Shepherd Neame.

[jeffian] 28/11/2022 17:48

As previously mentioned, effective family control rules out a hostile bid so if so it would have to be a negotiated/recommended deal. Unlikely, I think.

[george stobart] 28/11/2022 16:33

Popped to 6 quid - any leads?

takeover bid getting boiled?

[essentialinvestor] 17/11/2022 12:24

FSTA 2019 H1 for comparison

[1nf3rn0] 17/11/2022 12:06

Haha jjmills of course you are correct. Obviously too early on the morning for me and hadn't had my coffee yet!

[1tx] 17/11/2022 10:00

Is it done on a rolling 12 Months basis?Results reasonable in difficult times.Hospitality faces a "double whammy" in that we have the usual inflation increases plus we no longer have the reduced VAT & rates relief etc.I am probably in a minority of one in that I consider FSTA shares are cheap based on its assets & past record.Obviously I am making the reckless assumption that the world is not going to end......and that we may see a gradual improvement over the next year or so.NB I have been avoiding watching BBC News too often!

[jjmills56] 17/11/2022 08:49

Aren't these half year figures ? Dont you therefore annualized the ebitda ?

[1nf3rn0] 17/11/2022 07:58

From the HY results today, if Net Debt is 129m and EBITDA is 29m... how are they calculating the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio as 3x? There must be something I'm missing in understanding this metric. Anyone got any ideas how to reconcile?

[essentialinvestor] 27/9/2022 15:23

Bloody hell!.

[essentialinvestor] 21/9/2022 22:54

Youngs' fixed until Q1 2024, so would not expect they will benefit
as that was referenced at the FY, before the latest surge in prices.

Might be careful on FSTA fwiw, risks to the downside on the share price

[1tx] 21/9/2022 20:13

Fullers have a more complex position regarding energy supplies than Wetherspoons,City Pub & Youngs for example who have a 100% managed estate(near 100% in case of Youngs) in that it has two separate businesses.Firstly it has tts approx 200 Managed businesses where the company is responsible for paying the energy bills;in addition Fullers have 178 Tenanted pubs in which the tenant is responsible for paying for the energy bills and will have their own energy supply agreements with utilities.There was talk of Fullers buying energy on behalf of tenants in the annual report but this was stated to be at an early stage in the main the tenants will be considered as individual businesses for energy supply.

[essentialinvestor] 21/9/2022 14:57

Plenty of well paid civil servants to work out the implementation.

[darrin1471] 21/9/2022 07:19

Pub A buys Elec from broker B who buys it from energy producer C who agrees a gas producer price
They agree a 12 month deal of 60p
Market price goes up to 80p.
Government caps the price at 40p
Market price falls to 30p
Who does the government pay and what price do they pay. Is it worked out contract by contract.
Pub A contract ends half way through the 40p cap. Do they agree a new 60p contract as they know the government will cover the difference.
Not straight forward

[essentialinvestor] 21/9/2022 00:00

It's not that difficult. A rate is set, those paying over are compensated
the difference.

But that won't be set at last year's level.

I doubt those operating multiple pubs will be excluded
because of the scale of crisis facing the sector. But let's see.

[m_kerr] 20/9/2022 22:14

help will probably be mostly for smaller businesses anyway. they'd say the purpose of this sort of assistance is to ensure businesses survive, not underwrite investor returns in businesses that are big and well capitalised enough to survive anyway.

either way, it's a colossal amount of support that the government have put on the credit card. by comparison the bank bailouts cost £137m, and most of that was repaid.

[darrin1471] 20/9/2022 21:17

Not sure what government can do. Every company has a different hedge or contract. Do you give the same to FSTA and JDW or only give to FSTA as they have not hedged as well as JDW.

[essentialinvestor] 20/9/2022 19:50

Darrin, news on their energy costs is a big change in outlook - HMG measures to come obvs. So they are required to update the market.

[darrin1471] 20/9/2022 19:12

I was not expecting an update on FSTA until 17/11
Total sales up 3% on 2019 is a bit vague. Not a share I follow closely but there have been a lot of changes since 2019.
2019 revenue £329m
I was expecting eps of around 35p this year
£10m increase in energy bills.
£10m is a big chunk out of eps and what about the other inflationary costs?

"We are looking forward to the forthcoming World Cup and our first restriction-free Christmas for three years."
In a short statement, its interesting they highlighted this.

CPC report tomorrow, into which I went very overweight on this week

[essentialinvestor] 20/9/2022 17:47

Another new low, poor update imv.

[essentialinvestor] 12/9/2022 16:40

JDW and MAB now well off lows, tbf they
both benefit from wider MCX strenght.