Frk Eur Igc Etf Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 28/3/2013 16:34

"Yiannis Paraskevas Ioannau
Cypriot resident, Larnaca
Across the street from my office is a branch of the Bank of Cyprus. It's now one hour before it's due to open and there's a small line of people arriving to queue. I would like to withdraw my money altogether. I don't have a huge amount and I lose with the "haircut", but I don't trust the banks or the government."

And that, over time, is what they will do. So there is no free movement of capital and individuals are denied access to their own accounts, probably for quite a long time. Welcome to the Eurozone!

[jeffian] 26/3/2013 10:07

I agree with you, techmark. Threatening bank deposits has opened Pandora's Box and now that the idea has been floated, it can't simply be put back in the box or passed off as 'unique to Cyprus'. The Euro politicians must be completely mad. Cyprus is putting 'controls' in place to prevent a run on the banks but that's like trying to plug the bath with blotting paper. Why on earth would anyone now leave cash in any bank that was in a weak Eurozone country? Surely the contagion must spread to Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal? Of course, the one part of the Eurozone that is rock solid - but not willing to support the rest - is Germany, so you'd be safe enough placing your cash in their banks. Blimey, that would help support their liquidity ratios, wouldn't it? Hang on, isn't it German politicians driving the Cyprus 'rescue' plan........?!

[techmark] 26/3/2013 07:48

Things are not looking good post Cyprus. The EUR/USD has broken below its 200 DMA and next support looks to be around 1.2660.

The EU has scored a disastrous own goal with Cyprus, capital will flee the Eurozone now there is a real threat of confiscation. That will make bank funding much harder and it wasn't good anyway. Large uninsured depositors will almost certainly break up and move their money outside the EU, but I think even some insured depositors will too. Let's not forget that the original bailout plan that the EU,ECB and IMF wanted, stole from all depositors. There was no concern for the law or depositor insurance. Had the Cypriot government not voted that plan down it would have gone ahead.

If capital does start to flow away form the EU significantly, who knows how the EU will respond. Perhaps they will implement some form of capital controls across the entire Eurozone!

[jeffian] 25/8/2012 13:49

The farce continues.

Mr. Samaras, the Greek Prime Minister, is currently tootling between Germany and France begging for more time to implement the austerity plan but is peddling the line that this is not a request for (yet) more money ("We're not asking for more money. We're asking for breaths of air in this dive we are taking.")

So if the deficit-reduction plan is deferred for 2 years.....errrr.....who is going to pay for the deficit during those additional years? If it's not a request for more money, I don't know what it is.

I have plenty of sympathy for the Greeks, who are in an intolerable position, but the solution is to get out of the Euro and devalue. The model is Argentina 1999-2002. Yes, there would be short-term pain (what do they call the current situation?) but a floor would be placed under the economy from which it could start to grow again. They need to bite the bullet.

[jonc] 20/8/2012 09:42

It is staggering that this continues.

It is all paper money with no intrinsic value.

How long can the smoke and mirrors continue to work?

[jeffian] 20/8/2012 09:24

Well this (from today's Telegraph) would seem to explain why "the markets" have not brought things to a head by refusing to fund bust economies -

"Last week Greece completed its largest debt sale in two years, ensuring that it has sufficient funds to repay €3.1bn in bonds held by the ECB which mature today and avoiding a default.
The Greek Public Debt Management Agency sold €4.1 of Treasury bills. However, buyers were mainly Greek banks, which essentially borrowed from the ECB at one window, through the Greek central bank, to repay it through another."

You couldn't make it up, could you?

[dysonhooverman] 07/8/2012 11:54

I have a dreadful suspicion that the only 'meaningful solution' involves ripping the Euro up rather than keeping it together. As the people who control the markets are fully invested in this idea of using the whip hand/ blunt instrument of economic determinism to achieve social change, I think meaningful changes above all means defeat.

Still, like the abolition of direct slavery, change will come about when the current system no longer functions, regardless of who or how much has been invested in keeping it together. It's going to be painful but the sooner we suffer it the sooner we can all tip our hats to Iceland for having the balls to take on the establishment.

[jeffian] 11/7/2012 18:42

Surprisingly quiet here given that this is likely to be THE defining issue for the markets for the foreseeable future.

Last week they published the winning entry for the Wolfson prize asking for a scheme for troubled countries to leave the Euro -




What I can't understand is why the markets are allowing the politicians to muddle on without offering any meaningful solution. Never mind an "unsustainable" bond rate of 7%; why is anyone prepared to buy bonds at all in the PIGS when the risks are so high? Greece has already forced a 50% haircut on bondholders and as that still hasn't solved their problem, there may be worse to come. How does a 7% interest rate begin to reflect the risk of losing half or more of your capital?

The markets should force the issue by refusing to fund countries with unsustainable economies. The politicians would then be forced to make a choice between the only two options which have ever been on the table - either let the weak economies leave the Euro and devalue or mutualise Eurozone debt with the stronger economies effectively supporting the weaker ones. Where the Hell's George Soros when you need him? Unless someone pulls the plug, we're all doomed to years of economic living death.

[limousine] 08/6/2012 14:58

Not long to kick off , get your entries in only 5 quid!

[limousine] 03/6/2012 08:36

I Have created a private league for the euros2012 fanatsy football on sky , it is £5 to join and is paying out first 3 places , if you would like to join you will firstly need to create an account with skybet , deposit your £5 entry fee and then follow link to submit your team into league. Details for joining league.
League name..... Central Scotland
Pin ...................8016761
Password sharrk180

[umama bin fartin] 26/5/2012 20:15

The Greece entry gives me a fizzy widgy.

[umama bin fartin] 26/5/2012 20:09

Any reason why the Romanian entry is playing bagpipes?


ffs.

[umama bin fartin] 26/5/2012 20:05

It certainly won't be in Azerbaijan next year, although i'd tap their entry.

[umama bin fartin] 26/5/2012 19:52

No takers, eh?

Don't tell me everyone has suddenly got a life!

[umama bin fartin] 26/5/2012 19:47

Actually, Cyprus each way is a good bet.


Top cans.

[umama bin fartin] 26/5/2012 19:40

Stereotyping allowed for one evening only!

Get all your European hatred out of your system!

Go Greece!

[double6] 22/5/2012 20:07

Well - looks like the first part of the bet it sorted!!

[double6] 22/5/2012 11:47

Bet 1 ......

Winner of First Semi Final RUSSIA ..... 7/2

Bet 2 ......

Winner of Final SWEDEN..... 6/4


Cumulative odds ..... 10/1 approx...



Definitely worth a £100 punt !!!

[hectorp] 18/5/2012 15:31

THe Central Banks should Devalue the Euro over this weekend, say by 20%. That would help make Greece more competitive, it could stave off lots of nasties.

[john of groats] 11/3/2012 13:25

jeffian,

I'm not sure the eurocrats were stunned. Their expressions were those of a parent faced with a naughty child - disapproving but prepared to humour him.

It is fascinating to see the development of views on the Euro expressed on this BB over the last ten years. I came across a road map on the Uro Crisis that makes sober reading. It looks like we have more months of market volatility to come:



John