Fortune Oil Share Discussion Threads

[del44] 13/1/2015 11:30

via con:
I know but still posting information relative to FTO, until I am no longer a shareholder. Just placing it on the board as information, that all....:-)

[via con] 13/1/2015 10:55

One thing I am surprised about , considering the machinations of Danny and his crew , I´m surprised that his cabal hasn´t been buying more in the open market, pushing the share price closer to 10p, thereby allowing us PI´s to sell rather than wait for the potential 10p and possible 5p, and by so doing giving him greater in direct control of the take over exercise.

[via con] 13/1/2015 10:39

Forgive me Dell, but whether Moaming is at full tilt or not is of little consequence to us now, unfortunately, as it will be all their´s soon enough

[tel5] 13/1/2015 09:21

No doubt every facet of the business will be busy once they have got total control
and we got the crumbs!

[tel5] 13/1/2015 09:20

No doubt every facet of the business will be busy once they have got total control
and we got the crumbs!

[del44] 13/1/2015 08:32

Maoming should be busy in the coming years....

[del44] 12/1/2015 18:05

So....this is what it looks like it has all come down to....
For those still in, mark them in your diary...:-)

Dispatch of Scheme Document, together with the Forms of Proxy and Form of Election
16 January 2015 (or as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter)


Court Meeting to approve Scheme
9 February 2015 (or as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter)

General Meeting to approve Resolutions
9 February 2015 (or as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter)
Scheme Court Hearing to approve Scheme


26 February 2015 (or as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter)
Reduction Court Hearing to approve the Reduction of Capital


2 March 2015 (or as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter)
Effective date of Scheme


3 March 2015 (or the Business Day following the Reduction Court Hearing)
Dispatch of cash consideration Within 14 days after the Effective Date

[younasm] 08/1/2015 16:09

Thanks for all the interesting and useful posts.It seems we will get the 10p per share, and there is not much point selling these now at 9.65pI would be tempted for a quick exit above 11p - but don't see that happening soon.....

[del44] 08/1/2015 13:43

I am no less cynical myself, if I am been honest but as an investor, I tend to be an optimist....more is the issue..

[jacks13] 08/1/2015 13:30

Del, I'm hugely cynical about the offer, but you'll have gathered that already. I simply don't believe that the bidders will do anything that will trigger the release of the locked-in value to the wider ex-shareholders (i.e. CVR holders).

Why are they making the bid? The rns document would lead us to believe that they desire to relieve us of the burden of holding an illiquid share and such related issues. They would it seems be happier to bear the burden themselves; altruism at its finest.

The major assets of Fortune Oil is now locked away and innaccessible to Fortune although Fortune continues to carry the financial burden of acquiring them. Yes there may be manouvres afoot to release that value but it ain't coming our way. Hence the offer arriving at this time.

[del44] 08/1/2015 13:12

jacks13:
It is neither about a bid for CGH either...
This is the first clause of the two....
(a) the Fortune Oil Group and China Gas Group shall, during the CVR Term, have sold to a CVR Third Party, solely for cash, an aggregate number of the China Gas Holdings Shares exceeding 199,385,362 China Gas Holdings Shares (representing in excess of 35 per cent. of all of the Fortune Oil Group's direct and indirect interests in the China Gas Holdings Shares at the date of this Announcement); and

(b) the volume-weighted average per share price of all China Gas Holdings Shares sold by the Fortune Oil Group and China Gas Group to a CVR Third Party, solely for cash, during the CVR Term shall be in excess of HK$11.

My attention is drawn to this....the Fortune Oil Group and China Gas Group shall, during the CVR Term, have sold to a CVR Third Party...

So, who could a cvr third party possibly be? Someone within the mix?
I have noticed that another large holder in CGH, namely S&K holding, regularly sell parcels of stock to different groups within the S&K holding, outright....

So of concern to us as FTO holders, is not as to weather CGH gets a bid but that FTO sell to another party that can be deemed a cvr third party.. So not an outsider.....:-)

[jacks13] 08/1/2015 12:30

tel, if Minghui has a bidder for CGH quietly standing in the shadows then fine, we get our 5p. But the bid for Fortune Oil is not about CGH, its about Danny and the partners securing maximum value for themselves.

Assets (CGH shares) which have been bought on our behalf with our money and with borrowed money; the debt to be serviced by Fortune's (i.e. our) earnings; locked away under the terms of an unspecified contract, rendered inaccessible, it would seem, other than through a sale of CGH. The last thing Danny and the partners will want is an early sale of CGH and the release of that value to the shareholders.

Just take a detached view and ask yourself how likely a bid for CGH is over the option period. Any sane analysis will tell you that it isn't going to be a 50/50 chance!

[tel5] 08/1/2015 12:11

we can take the 10p and reinvest in cgh is another option but after this experience its doubtful many will want to go along with any company that can be open to this sort of carry on. Our only hope is that this is the start of a wider picture which is not yet public for obvious reasons and that the 5p could be paid if it happens.

[jacks13] 08/1/2015 11:47

Del,

Regarding the iii post (17468); 'If Simon Thompson at IC seems confident that the CVR is going to be worth the entire 5p. Why does the market view it at zero?'.

That seems a little naive; are we really expected to give equal weight to the opinions of Simon Thompson and the market.

If the bid is successful at 10p, we will walk away with 10p plus an option (CVR) on a further 5p. Normally in this situation that 5p option would carry value; the value, 1p, 2p or whatever, being representative of its chances of being paid.

However, because the option isn't a tradable instrument there is no prospect of any market being available into which we might sell. We are therefore, in accepting the 10p offer, fully and unavoidably exposed to the wager, or so it seems, that CGH will be bid for in the subsequent twelve months. That is why the CVRs are regarded as worthless. We are locked into an all or nothing bet on an event happening that has a probability approaching zero. So says the market.

Those who believe the 5p will materialise may yet be proved right but the odds against them are steep and in accepting the offer we are taking on that unwelcome bet. The alternative, rejecting the offer, doesn't hold a great deal of appeal either and that is what Danny and his advisors are banking on.

[ken536] 08/1/2015 10:11

Del,
I think this will be the choice of many, I'll be one,
hanging in there for 10p & hope for a little bit more.

[del44] 08/1/2015 09:39

I took this post from iii board...

9:22 08/01/2015 Re: RNS
These RNSs are showing either Chinese influence already within FTO or the arbritage of the shares pending the official offer.

The key factor is the value of the CVR and it's terms; at the moment the market is pricing it at zero due to the fact that this is the only published limit. If Simon Thompson at IC seems confident that the CVR is going to be worth the entire 5p. Why does the market view it at zero?

In fact there is a general skeptism over the entire offer due to shares being available with a 3% discount of the 10p offer. The offer HAS to be made as HSBC has confirmed to the takeover panel that funding is available, thus if accepted at 10p, the offeree must pay the 10p. ONLY if shareholders hold out to the court required 75% not being met will the CVR be totally worthless. The chance of not getting the 75% is the simple equation, can an investor make money at 10p. The answer is YES therefore iMHO any opposition will be a pointless exercise, to cover my entire portfolio I need around 11p to B/E. Here is hoping the CVR is not worthless....

I am still buying, I can get the 3% plus any value assigned to the CVR. By next-time-lucky...

My own take on the recent disclosures of holdings in fto is, that many of these have been holding for some time and have not had to declare as they are below the 3% threshold.......So I don't think other then premier assets, anybody has been buying all of a sudden.What these disclosures (to me anyway) indicate, is that the 75% is most likely achievable with these announcements...JCT and Maoming rns's aretied in (but not connected to) to the FTO group and will most likely fall in line voting wise....

So, it is really about your "feel" as to weather the cvr has value. I could sell in the market this morning for 9.58p with commission....or hold and get an extra .42p per share with no commission and with a further (up to) 5p in around a years time.....All things standing as they are......That is the stark choice....

[1leigh] 07/1/2015 22:16

Look at the chart above, given the way the share price was going I think they could have tried to get it for 10p with no CVR. Unless the CVR is for the courts benefit?

The recent holding RNS's are interesting, the more shares that are in the hands of chinese companies that'll be expecting that extra 5p is good news from my perspective.

[del44] 07/1/2015 16:45

British Bulls are getting more positive pieball.....LOL


See the big hit they took a while back.....everybody always does with FTO...:-)

[del44] 07/1/2015 16:42

This thread has finally taken on the feeling of a crowd leaving the ground after the game is over or very nearly the end...LOL...
I am usually the last out of a stadium...:-)
C'mon the Baggies!!!!

[pieball] 07/1/2015 16:35

Maybe they should give us shareholders options to buy CGH shares at 11 from them and if enough of the offer is taken up within a year we'll also get the 5p

[del44] 06/1/2015 20:18

CGH is making a bid for the BEG gas assets....we all know that....but they have postponed that AGAIN....
There has been a raft of declarations today, about 6 rns releases....It looks like "Others" have been buying throughout the fall from end July to the present date...Think they may be a lot closer to the 75% target now!!!

[ken536] 06/1/2015 19:34

All the more reason to give PI's the full 15p

[gwatson56] 06/1/2015 15:58

Perhaps not as many as we thought in the hands of PI's...

[ken536] 06/1/2015 09:37

Hi 1Leigh,
One thing about it all is that 'they' certainly know what 'they' are doing,
They are grabbing a lot of money that we should be sharing.
Anything less than 15p a share is a disgrace.
The Offer of 10p + 5p IF, is a way of getting out of paying the 5p
If I am wrong I will certainly be surprised and would apologize for my thoughts.
Ken

[tel5] 06/1/2015 09:27

yes I share those sentiments entirely , get out move on and reinvest in a something that can at least can hopefully give a good dividend stream.