Ffi Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 27/9/2018 11:20

Interesting to look at the assumptions underlying the calculation of deferred consideration for the acquired companies.

[Real Media]

"The Group recorded $16,610,000 as the contingent liability. This fair value estimate is based on an assumed discount rate between 2.1 - 3.2 per cent and assumed EBITDA in Reel Media, LLC of $6,800,000 - $11,700,000 for each of the next five years."

In the year ended 31 March, FFI recorded a total ebitda of $22m to which Reel Media contributed a loss of around $1m. This is explained in the same accounts as they forecast the above profits as:-

"We also experienced some challenges in our integration of Reel Media where we saw delays in the launch of a number of insurance lines as well as delays in the timing of contract renewals. However, these early stage issues have now been overcome; there is significant product development underway and we are on target to continue with further launches of new business lines in this sector."

So if the expectation for Reel Media profits is correct, there should be substantial upside to the current numbers.

[ronwilkes123] 27/9/2018 09:23

Buying blitz sounds like a west end show starring Colleen Nolan

[dave4545] 27/9/2018 09:23

33-34p monitor is just for show.

I can buy for 32.9p and somebody has sold for 31p now, I'm sure the dip coming will bring out another buying blitz

[ronwilkes123] 27/9/2018 08:39

You could always buy more golden tickets dave

[ronwilkes123] 27/9/2018 08:36

They could do with issuing an agm rns

[dave4545] 27/9/2018 08:22

Weak this morning 33-34p

I cannot sell at 33p bid and can buy at 33.1p online which of course is almost the bid price so we might get a dip

[ronwilkes123] 27/9/2018 08:02

Don't they need to rns by listing rules ?

[tsmith2] 27/9/2018 07:31

No AGM update?

[pireric] 26/9/2018 20:52

Indeed, Dan. One lesson learnt from the last crisis is that, even if the operational performance has not bottomed, the share price bottoms well in advance. Same for the mining industry around 2015. Because, obviously, the market is forward looking!

You almost have to buy a little bit blind, but at such crazy valuations, in retrospect it always looks obvious, even if you feel a bit uncomfortable at the time.

[ronwilkes123] 26/9/2018 16:02

How's it now dave

[ronwilkes123] 26/9/2018 14:51

MyFriends come from Paris each uear

[the big fella] 26/9/2018 14:51

Dan - I agree 100% with your thinking. Markets move in extremes, I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

[tsmith2] 26/9/2018 14:50

Interims were in December last year.Hopefully we'll get a TU ahead of that them this year

[eentweedrie] 26/9/2018 14:43

sorry to say ron but you really sound like a total bellend. Do you have any friends there in dakar?

[ronwilkes123] 26/9/2018 14:39

You bought 883 shares

[dan_the_epic] 26/9/2018 14:29

I've bought in. The market is being daft. For this to be even remotely the right value, profit needs to halve again and despite actually buying profitable businesses.It's a world leader in its main field. I have no idea if all the bad news is out of the way. But at this valuation it's irrelevant. I expect it to massively rally into the next update, probably November. If that's bad then you might get one final pull back but then anchors are up.

The market are pricing this like it's a highly indebted fish and chip shop operating on a high street where 6 new rival shops just opened and so where trading might fall off a cliff and the shop goes bankrupt. This is the sort of valuation I haven't seen since 2009/10.

If I had waited for trading to swing up before buying in, I expect I'd be paying 12x earnings even if that earnings number is 10% lower. That would be somewhere around 85 pence per share.

Dan

[ronwilkes123] 26/9/2018 13:53

How's it looking now dave

[dave4545] 26/9/2018 12:22

33.17-33.5p atm

[pireric] 26/9/2018 11:30

An IPO - enough people liked the story at 150

[stemis] 26/9/2018 11:28

How did they manage to float this at 150p?

[ronwilkes123] 26/9/2018 11:23

Where's Dave today

[pireric] 26/9/2018 11:14

Was not expecting an AGM statement. Not sure what it wouldve said that hasn't been said a couple of weeks ago! We know what revised expectations are etc. Should get a procedural results one I guess

[ronwilkes123] 26/9/2018 10:32

Thank you so much