Ferro-alloy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 21/8/2023 08:01

SOS,

r u crazy?

not now but used to a long time ago.

followed this company for several years, expecting a turnaround at some point...but not forthcoming

[pugugly] 21/8/2023 07:55

In addition to points in 369 above today's rns has added management competence and believability -
I would expect a very large MM markdown on opening.

Guesses as to how much?

[sos100] 21/8/2023 07:54

Jailbird do you hold any shares here?

[jailbird] 21/8/2023 07:24

VBR thought 9p was cheap Any future fundraise will be lower

[jailbird] 21/8/2023 07:21

No now will take over ( if at all) until DFS has de risked the project now

[sos100] 21/8/2023 07:18

ridiculous....takeover probably best here

Especially as they start talking about a feasibilty study being the value driver :)

[ttlance] 21/8/2023 07:14

Not a good RNS, delays in concentrate and feasibility study pushed back into Q1 24. very odd that NB was saying the plant was profitable not long ago, as stated in previous messages a definite fund raise happening here

[jailbird] 21/8/2023 07:14

This has become beyond laughable now I see company has been reverted to raising money via bonds again.Is that or dilution again So much for having VBR on board .. lol@cyberhub you holding this pile of poo.

[pugugly] 14/8/2023 11:19

Going nowhere but downhill at the moment.
Why?

Four possibilities for starters for discussion

Can investors trust Kazakhstan not to change the rules?

How achievable are management objectives?

Has Vanadium been over ramped - In other words what is the realistic future for the Flow Battery technology?

Are brokers guestimates believable?

Other possible problems - for discussion.

[t1bbst3r] 29/7/2023 14:57

chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/carbon-black-42

[t1bbst3r] 29/7/2023 14:56

the blocked carbon pricing link[...]

[t1bbst3r] 29/7/2023 14:52

hxxps://wuchang.en.made-in-china.com/product/DXLEUlkSboYM/China-Environmental-Protection-Carbon-Black-Dust-Free-Carbon-Black-Natural-Rubber-Carbon-Black-N330-N220-N550.html

here we have a link to a supplier of carbon black with 20% reclaimed rubber in it.
Also, a carbon black price tracking website of 220 grade; [...]
To be a potential 'co product' Would probably need 12000usd/t for the carbon sillica which I don't think likely. Reckon that with the warrant conversions etc. at the end of the year, based on future cashflows (discounting the carbon) that we are roughly on a forward pe of 1. Think an 8 multiple is fair for a safe & profitable kaz mining company with a large resource. Could argue there that the whole project minus the plant is valued at a mere £23M?

[ttlance] 29/7/2023 14:17

Page 22 on VSA Capital report shows total revenue of $125m for phase 1, this is based on supply of ferro silicon, which is of low value. NB mentioned previously that the carbon black replacement selling price would be quite a bit lower than standard carbon black however it would still generate revenue similar to anticipated vanadium revenue.

hxxps://www.ferro-alloy.com/en/news/VSA%20Research%2012%20May%202020.pdf

[t_headder] 29/7/2023 13:45

Also, anyone know the value of recycled carbon? Apparently the char from tyres, before being heated & acid leached into tyre grade is 37usd/ton. This then leaves a carbon silica mix after removing zinc (presumably from the galvanised steel bands) which can replace about 20,% of the carbon black in tyre walls. If we know this, we can calculate the revenue for phase 1.

[pugugly] 29/7/2023 12:08

A reminder on the terms of the bonds re 1st tranche:_ 9% pa/ OK a reasonable rate given their probable credit rating but a cash drain

"On 27 July 2023, the Company listed the first tranche of bonds under the Programme on the AIX ("the First Tranche") with the ability to raise up to US$3 million.

-- A summary of the terms and conditions of the First Tranche is as follows:
- ISIN: KZX000001474
- Specified currency: US Dollars
- Face value: US$2,000
- Number of bonds: 1,500 units
- Total nominal amount of the bonds: US$3 million
- Issue date: 27 July 2023
- First date of trading: 28 July 2023
- Last date of the circulation period: 26 July 2026
- Maturity date: 27 July 2026
- Coupon rate: 9.0% fixed of the nominal value of the bonds issued
- Frequency of interest payments: twice a year, 27 January, and 27 July of each year, commencing on 27 January 2024"

- Coupon basis: 30 days in a month / 360 days in a year
-- Trading of the First Tranche of bonds will commence on 28 July 2023

[t_headder] 29/7/2023 12:06

Any long term holders thinking of adding here? Volume is still low and the newsflow over the remaining year could actually attract some more investors.

[t_headder] 29/7/2023 11:46

On reflection, I think forward purchase of raw materials and fesability costs. As they say, they need a steady supply and likely will want contingency stockpiles. In Mays presentation they say they have about a 40% profit margin so the 5m$ fcf forecast from libernum seems about right. The 4.2 stated plus 1.5m$ likely coming from VB @ end of year plus ability for up to 17m$ more bonds implies that they could start orders & groundworks in advance of offtake agreement dependant bank financing to keep the 2026 production target.

[ttlance] 28/7/2023 17:23

Header, what’s your thoughts reference funds they are building, ie purpose?

[t_headder] 28/7/2023 17:03

Seems to me the company is building funds for something. With the vision blue 4.5m$ warrants stated as being converted at the end of the year, with the 9p share options likely too, coupled with the up to 20m$ bond they are up to something not mentioned. Also, with the rubber consultancy group testing still to be done prior to tyre manufacturers testing and then offtake agreements, I don't think a funding agreement will be reached for phase 1 as forecast. Or was the bond financing just to pay for fesability studies prior to the warrant funds and the whole 20m$ won't be necessary? Didn't say in the presentation did they.....

[ttlance] 28/7/2023 16:59

Good to hear NB being more realistic and honest. Mentioned the $100m phase 1 build will be higher but no surprise there.

Carbon black substitute testing seems to be taking a while in terms of developments.

The team are managing expectations with the profitability of the pilot plant. Definitely won’t achieve $10m, as CFO alluded to this being achieved with 100% reliability of the plant and supply of RMs onto site. But hey if there is no more share dilution used for current operations, that for me is a massive result.

[dodkins] 28/7/2023 07:51

No change. Pilot plant back on track, BFS still on track.

[pugugly] 27/7/2023 13:15

Any thoughts after the IMC presentation? Did not (imo) set the world on fire.

[ttlance] 26/7/2023 10:28

Anyone know how you submit pre meeting questions for the InvestorMeet webinar that starts tomorrow?