Ferrex Share Discussion Threads

[cyprussteve] 23/2/2015 16:02

FRX - Informative interview update at Indaba.
Just found this.

[danielmiller1] 22/2/2015 09:04

David Reeves is a great guy. I have spoken to him and I believe his sincerity.

However I play poker and quite well too. Some times even the best tend to go a bet too far. If I was to assess FRX More definitively than one finger on the buy button with the other hand over the bin, I would say you need to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.!

As you say RS investing is all about doing reaserch. Well at GDP a few years back so may people did this at at time when GDP was touted as being one of just eight really undervalued stocks on the AIM......unfortunately the figures they were putting out were as I was informed from a spot on source over optimistic, consequent the share price went into free fall.

Also there is the rather questionable relationSHIP between Lamming formerly the CEO at GDP and the NEC of FRX, and their past times at GDP. For my money, and I still have a tad in FRX! Reeves would be doing himself and FRX a great big favour by emulating a snake..............rejuvenating itself by shedding old skin!

[gheebee] 21/2/2015 21:33

Well, I for one am now worried about investing in a share that attracts unreconstructed ageists like your good self. So I'm off to invest in Saga instead.

[rec0very stock] 21/2/2015 19:35

Firstly another area where I agree and disagree with Daniel Miller. The track record of the management is all important, if you do not have faith in the guys running the show, then never ever buy. Here is where I disagree with Daniel, the guy running the show is Dave Reeves, he has an excellent track record of delivering for shareholders and he is the one putting big chunks of his own money in. Brian Morritz is a bit of an irrelevance really - he is a figurehead non-exec chairman, that is all. Daniel seems to really have it in for him, I have met Brian personally and he is a nice enough guy, albeit showing his advancing years. For that reason alone, I would not buy into a company where Brian was genuinely in charge. I know nothing about GDP and I am not really interested in it, anyone who is should do thorough research and make their own investing decision - I suspect Brian would be little more than a figurehead there these days.

So back to Ferrex and the question of when / if to buy. That is a totally personal question and depends entirely on your own risk appetite. I have checked everything I can, as thoroughly as I can and it all stacks up in theory to being a great investment at the current share price. The problem is converting theory into practice and FRX have had a lot of bad luck with doing this. The Gabon deal all stacked up to be a great investment in theory, until Anglo pulled out as the Iron Ore price crashed. Mn looks a lot sounder than IO and there is more than one funding offer on the table. The Togo govt seem to be committed, but have most certainly dragged their feet a hell of a lot in the past and could continue to do so and there is nothing FRX can do about that.

So the question put another way is how much do you want to pay for more certainty (nothing is ever absolutely certain in the mining game). FRX will remain a high risk investment for quite some time to come. It has had a lot of bad luck, is its luck finally changing? I am naturally very cautious, but I have decided to start accumulating small quantities when the offer price is sensible.

[cyprussteve] 20/2/2015 14:04

Hi tiv,
And at 0.6p on ISDX - demand seems to be stregthening as Togo license and funding get closer.

[tivoliworldgaming] 20/2/2015 11:05

A week ago one could of had this share for 0.5p and since a couple of days ago the price has been over 0.56p to buy. Today they are even more at 0.575p to buy.

[gheebee] 18/2/2015 18:34

The moment for re-entry looks to me to be here or here about. The publicity machine is working overtime judging by Google news (other search engines are available). The Manganese Q&A gave us a clue as to who the major players and we seem to have learned from the "binding" term sheet announcement of last year. Not being in at the moment I'm not worried or rather I'm becoming worried that I'm not in. If I'm not alone then things could be about to turn around.

[cyprussteve] 18/2/2015 18:17

Pro-Active Update
Available on Pro Active Investors website - advfn will not permit the link to be posted here;
Copy below.
"UPDATE - Ferrex looks to 2015 "with vigour"
By John Harrington
February 17 2015, 12:24pm
'We look forward to reporting on the confirmation of the Mining Licence from Nayega in due course,' chairman Brian Moritz said.
"We look forward to reporting on the confirmation of the Mining Licence from
Ferrex (LON:FRX) is confident it can secure funding to move its flagship Nayega manganese project in Togo into production in 2015.
In its results statement for the year to 30 September, the company highlighted the benefit of being a multi-commodity exploration company, with the company switching emphasis to its flagship project in Togo, West Africa, though exploration of its Mebaga and Malelane iron ore projects in Gabon and South Africa respectively continued, to add value to those projects.
The definitive feasibility study of Nayega is nearing completion, and the project offers "a near-term cash generation opportunity", chairman Brian Moritz said.
"With regard to funding, our cash position obviously remains tight given that we have ongoing monthly commitments and are seeking to move into production at Nayega in the course of this calendar year. Nevertheless, the board is confident that we will be able to secure funding in the period required to not only maintain the company's current operations but commence developing the Nayega project this calendar year," Moritz said.
Ferrex ended the financial year with cash and cash equivalents of £107,000, down from £228,000 a year earlier.
As a pre-production company it produced no revenue and registered a pre-tax loss of £1.79mln, versus a loss of £1.67mln the year before.
House broker finnCap noted that the recent collapse in the price of iron ore means the company’s two iron projects are not economically viable at current prices, though they do offer some “option value”.
"We have assigned a nominal value of £2mln (0.2p per share) to the company’s other projects as these are not currently viable," finnCap said.
“We have re-run our numbers for the company on the basis of Nayega as the prime project, and come up with a risk discounted target price of 1.7p,” the broker added.
Ferrex shares currently trade at 0.45p, down 0.075p on the day.
Shore Capital, meanwhile, said the results contained no surprises.
Having said that, it professed to be surprised by “the refreshingly frank” admission that Ferrex’s cash position remains tight.
“Ferrex ended FY2014 with just £0.11mln of cash and £0.07mln of receivables, versus £0.4mln of payables. Subsequently, in December 2014, the company agreed a short-term £0.3mln facility (repayable at Ferrex’s discretion, 10% annual interest) underwritten by a consortium including MD David Reeves. Clearly, therefore, more monies will need to be raised very soon, whether from the same consortium or from other sources,” Shore predicted.

Also new brokers note below :

[tivoliworldgaming] 18/2/2015 15:44

Looks like Daniel has bought back in.

[tivoliworldgaming] 18/2/2015 15:24

0.55p getting paid again.

[tivoliworldgaming] 18/2/2015 15:13

Wow 0.55p paid. They was cheaper to buy before they fell.

[danielmiller1] 17/2/2015 21:03

If the contributors here don't mind chatting off topic it's an easy one to answer, just study the history of the company and the share price today. Also you could learn much on doing research on the man himself. I am sure the proposed lenders would be doing something similar!

[sashimi] 17/2/2015 20:13

DanielMiller1 - do you mind filling me in, on how Brian Moritz has disappointed back at GDP please? Thanks

[danielmiller1] 17/2/2015 17:14

In my experience those approached to provide funding for any project will always consider, without fail the history of those involved with such requests. Please note this is a general rule and not FRX specific.

Unfortunately FRX's Chairman has a questionable tract record in financial/general management which would not sit to well on any lenders table for consideration.

However, imagine the senario of approaching lenders with a full pack for a non problematic FRX together with the ability of the example to point to another PLC which is under the control of the same Chair and running like well spread Kerrygold on hot toast. This would surely impress and be delightfully persuasive to any lending consortium......an established up and running example of what is achievable.

Sadly the Chairman's involvement with GDP looks like the teapot spilt on the toast before the Kerrygold even had a chance to get spread.

There is no doubt that FRX has a lot going for it, but remains a high risk play, but nevertheless a play with a huge potential. At this critical stage in the development of FRX's massive potential, I would have thought the need for mirror smoothness over any hint of a rough, probably uncutable, diamond would certainty be highly disadvantageous!

[sashimi] 17/2/2015 17:02

Hi steve, thank you for the reply.

with todays drop it makes things worst. To be honest I might go for a CFD option, I will be in this one for the short term. But if things line up nicely things could very well change.

The fact that the CEO is continuously supporting this company with his own money says something. Not many out there with this kind of attitude.

[here and there] 17/2/2015 13:17

time for another top up cyprus steve!

[cyprussteve] 17/2/2015 10:24

Hi sash,
You are correct in the news that is due - but, as we know from the already lengthy delay with Togo, Africa is very slow to grant permits, and Dave is totally in their hands.
I agree the spread is currently a killer, and almost undoubtedly stopping new investors, but, as we also know the mm's can change the spread very quickly when there is news.
At the moment one gets the impression that they are almost trying to suppress trading.
Your call !!
Steve

[sashimi] 17/2/2015 09:43

I looking at buying a few of these soon, however the spread is killing me. Its at 30% which is ridiculously high.

I'm no expert in mining companies but I understand the following is due shortly:

1- Resource upgrade
2- funding agreement
3- Permit to mine

I'm a correct on the above or is there something I'm missing?

[danielmiller1] 17/2/2015 09:40

RNS not really recieved with a great excitement, not even the Chair was as usual "delighted" to announce the accounts!

Ah well there is always the excitement of next year's package!

[andylee3] 17/2/2015 08:07

RNS....Final Results

[novicetrade68] 15/2/2015 15:27

Thanks for the informative post RS. If FRX can indeed pull it off then we could be easily looking at a 5-6 bagger here given that the MCAP is now only £4.5m or so.

All of a sudden FRX looks a lot more exciting which hasn't been the case for quite a while.

Agree though with your points about timing. Would be great if they can deliver the Mining Convention in Q1, but wouldn't be surprised if that slips.

It seems they may well announce a financing update before the mining permit is officially confirmed, which is surprising perhaps, but from the RNS :

'Negotiations will continue in the coming month with the aim of concluding a package slightly ahead of, or simultaneous with, the award of the mining permit.'

So for now there is perhaps no rush to buy in, but would imagine as of next month it'll be much more 'have to be in it to win it' as a funding RNS could arrive at any moment and I doubt anyone can still buy in at half a penny in that case.

[hotsherbert] 15/2/2015 14:23

interview, dated: 9-10 Feb 2015

[cyprussteve] 14/2/2015 15:16

Excellent summary RS.

[rec0very stock] 13/2/2015 21:11

For once I think I might be in total agreement with DM1!

I have checked the Capex and Opex figures against industry comparators, where possible (it is not that easy with Mn) and they do look fairly mouth watering and I am not surprised that Dave has a number of funding offers. That in itself will be a problem for Dave, as a major shareholder himself he will want a deal that does not dilute shareholders any more than absolutely necessary and the deal that is at a premium to current share price will still be quite dilutive, any other MD / CEO would leap on it as the lowest risk and simplest solution - finger over the buy button.

However the whole licence thing is taking far longer than ever expected and the RNS was in some ways an announcement of yet another delay. There is nothing Dave can do about this, but it does make him look like someone who over promises and under delivers (which when things are in his control he most certainly is not). By the very nature of African governments, there could very easily be further delays. By my calculations the recent debt funding, backed by Dave's personal collateral, will see them through, if the timescales in the announcement are achieved, but significant further delays could pose a short term funding problem, which in turn lead to a discounted bucket shop placing, or worse still more Yorkville style funding.

People should forget trying to get in at the best possible price, because it rarely ever happens and is only really something fantasy traders boast about. In reality, it is all about appetite for risk. Do you get in early, taking more risk, but possibly getting a better price, or do you wait for more certainty and pay more than the lowest price, but maybe not that much more than the early bird who was a bit too early for the worm. I tend to be more cautious and pay more for the certainty, but there is nothing wrong with being the too early bird, as long as it does all come good in the end.

To me it looks like the licence will definitely come through, eventually - it could easily take longer than has been announced. The economics are good and are likely to get better. With several funding deals on the table, as opposed to the Anglo deal on Gabon where Anglo were in complete control and just pulled out as soon as the IO price looked wobbly, some form of funding is as close to being in the bag as it can be, without actually being in the bag. So how much more certainty do I want?

The Market response to the RNS and the video has been fairly muted and I do not see much triggering anything more vigorous until the actual announcement of "we have the licence, we have the funding" so as DM1 says, there is no hurry.

I do not look at the trading pattern all that closely, but when I have looked I have noticed that any decent sized buy of around 1M seems to be followed a few hours later by a 1M dump, which tends to suggest there is someone out there with quite a few shares they want to dump.

So my view to buyers, holders and sellers is that awful word: patience - just let things play out a little longer before making an investment decision. It is a good job I am not a financial advisor, as nobody would pay me for advice like that, especially as It seems to agree pretty much with DM1.

[danielmiller1] 12/2/2015 09:11

It was a half tidy presentation, still too many lose ends, but not enough to ditch it totally! I am left with one finger over the buy button and the other hand over the bin. However as there is no hurry all round this could be a win win situation.