Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 16/10/2015 16:27

Borgo IMHO is correct on this one FOGL have an Oil Discovery

[moneymunch] 16/10/2015 16:22

Lol...only an idiot would dismiss it...GL ;-)

[trulyscrumptious] 16/10/2015 16:10

Idiot if you listen the ramblings of that numpty who knows virtually nothing yet is pretending to be an expert.
edit. mm. I am sure you are a really nice person but you were so gullible with TRP and this is a repeat performance. Think for yourself, do your own research and don't follow attention-seeking clowns who know no more than anyone else.

[moneymunch] 16/10/2015 15:57

15:35
The Borgo Interpretation

borgo22
4UP
My conclusions from the wording of the RNS, what’s not in the RNS and the incontrollable ramblings of a mad Barman :

- FOGL were “forced” into releasing this RNS. There were a lot of rumours yesterday about a 40 meter oil find in the Falklands ( hence my “Armada Day” post of about twelve hours ago ).
- The FOGL RNS was, by the terms of the Joint Operating Agreement, approved by Noble as operator of the well. The original FOGL RNS had the words “oil discovery” in the title. This was removed by Noble and the tone of the RNS changed quite considerably. I don’t know why this was done but Noble are a conservative company and have been bitten by news releases before concerning their Israeli assets.
- Wireline logs were run over the APX-200 interval. This would have included resistivity, neutron/density, sonic, formation scanner and importantly formation tester. The pressure tests with the formation sampler were good although the samples obtained were contaminated by mud.
- Make no mistake, Noble and FOGL know very well what they have with the 40m of net pay. For some reason they are being very conservative and I’ll leave this for the conspiracy theorists to decipher.
- FOGL did not want to farm down on their share of the well to date. They believe they have an oil discovery that will be declared commercial in due course. They had to find a carry or money from somewhere and the farm down on the deeper target is a win-win for both Noble and FOGL.
- The Southern Basin has now been opened up. It’s an expensive business deepwater drilling and production, so it will take much longer to get traction than the northern basin.

We need to wait a little longer for total clarity and see if the lower target comes in. For me we are looking at a very good news story. Unfortunately FI drills are rarely straight forward but holders in FOGL will be well rewarded in due course.

Here comes the Sun !

[agnabeya] 16/10/2015 15:50

Rob -
I've got 3 times + what I sold still in my ISA trading -
they are for when FOGL sell out to the highest bidder.
I still believe enough in Isobel and the NFB to hang on for that.
If the results for Humpy aren't terrific - I think the sell out will come sooner rather than later.
Possibly at the end of this campaign, as an iffy result in the SFB would see it left alone for a while IMHO.

Efagie - cheers. :)
I don't think we'll see 18-19 today - but maybe 20p?
I'd take some at that probably - but not buy all in until it was lower.

[efagie] 16/10/2015 15:31

agna, and you keep playing it your way, even if i may not agree totally.
Agree re Argentine election.
Not sure you'll see 18/19.
Still got some 200m to drill for the APX=200 layer, will it add more?

[moneymunch] 16/10/2015 15:31

Interesting that Noble has no need/requirement to update their market. GL ;-)

[robpuguk] 16/10/2015 15:30

lol agna, yeah i remember u selling them - i meant the other lots u have, you had loads i seem to recall.

I just want this drill over with lol

[agnabeya] 16/10/2015 15:24

JJ -
I meant the time was 16.25. Lol
I sold at 23.75 taking a small loss.

[jamesjoel] 16/10/2015 15:22

Yes ag thanks

[agnabeya] 16/10/2015 15:09

Jamesjoel...do you know there is a filter function?
You never have to see his posts again. ;)

[agnabeya] 16/10/2015 15:09

Rob, yes I sold on Wednesday around 16.25.
It showed up about an hour after closing on the late trades.

Only my trading shares.
I'll buy back here if the share price hits around 18-19 or less.

See what happens next week.
I went for a snooze -so I take it there was no update from Noble?


I'm fairly neutral, with a bias to caution, on this RNS.
The only positives I read are being imagined on shaky foundations.
The negatives too.
It hasn't really told us anything I didn't already suspect in my diagnostic post a couple of days ago.
It's not the RNS we wanted 4 months from spud.
I love the Argentine elections conspiracy, but the realist in me doubts that.
I might be totally wrong, but this morning I felt my relief in selling was justified.
For now anyway. :D

I do agree it's still to play for, but I have my own way of playing for it.
GLA

[chrisc168] 16/10/2015 15:01

That sounds gay. Sorry I don't do old men.

[jamesjoel] 16/10/2015 14:45

I would put ya on the floor Chris Oil if I ever met you

[mr hangman] 16/10/2015 14:31

chrisc168 is the only guy that talks any sense over on the Crazy thread

[whoppy] 16/10/2015 14:26

Yes the moderate porosity is good news.

[jamesjoel] 16/10/2015 14:20

A well respected geo on iii says this is a massive hit dyor

[whoppy] 16/10/2015 14:13

Noble up pre market $37

[whoppy] 16/10/2015 13:53

No one knows if this is commercial as they have not done a full suite of logging or taken any fluid samples or pressure tests, or done any coring.
NBL are the gatekeepers as we know. A lot more detailed work to be done yet. Glad Malcy's not in charge of the well. The fact they have something to test gives a clue..Malcy got fried by FOGL in the last campaign, hence his views.

[moneymunch] 16/10/2015 13:45

Lol, or 50p plus plus plus by the time the Argentine elections are over. Oil and politics go hand in hand. Gla holders :-)

[chrisc168] 16/10/2015 13:35

10p by end of next week.