F&c Commercial Property Share Discussion Threads

[washbrook] 04/8/2008 08:22

N.A.V at 30 June 2008 was 112.2 pence the share price then 79.5p, a discountof 29.06%.

[not manu] 28/7/2008 23:35

> nickcduk
yes, UKCM is relatively overvalued at the mo'.
v. nice pair trade. hope it goes well for you.

[cerrito] 24/7/2008 21:51

I agree with you that the Colchester sale has had no impact on the sp; I have just re-entered as with this sale they are now a solid indeed boring holding.

[nickcduk] 24/7/2008 13:30

Excellent news that they managed to dispose of a shopping centre at close to its last stated value. That brings down gearing even more and is almost negligible now. With that being the case the discount to NAV is pretty harsh. It is around 35%. Compare that with UKCM which has no gearing but is on a discount of around 20%. Ive taken a pairs trade on with a long FCPT position hedged against a short UKCM trade.

[the diviner] 19/6/2008 17:09

As per a previous post, I sold last year at 115p and now they are 30% lower and much of the expected drop is already in the price so I have been buying a few as it approaches 80p for the second time.

The only PYAD number that I do not like is the gearing but in comparison to its peers the gearing is low. (I prefer no gearing and cash in the bank but we cannot always have it all).

FCPT could still go lower but at around 80p the downside appears to be limited to me.

[not manu] 27/4/2008 16:03

Extract of RNS Number:0780T
F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd
24 April 2008

"..................The unaudited net asset value ('NAV') per share of F&C Commercial Property Trust Limited as at 31 March 2008 was 120.5 pence.................".

Discount to NAV is now only 18%.

[cerrito] 02/4/2008 15:33

Had a good canter through and agree with you not manu that decent very little downside risk although upside risk is somewhat limited given I guess the rather sombre comments of the Chairman ,issues with the indirect portfolio and the fact that at 127.7 Dec 31 07 NAV the discount is pretty modest by today's standards.
Any resumption post AGM of buy backs will be welcome.
Would have preferred that 2007's dividend payments of £43.9m had been covered by net cash from operating income which was £41.3m but the dividend is much less uncovered than in other similar companies.
See no reason to sell at these levels but would only look to add if it went sub 90 again which is not probable.

[not manu] 30/3/2008 19:02

6.4% with a share price of 93.75p

[badtime] 28/3/2008 22:43

wots the yield?

tia

[not manu] 28/3/2008 19:12

A decent set of results. Only 11% LTV and dividend is almost covered by underlying earnings.

[jonwig] 12/1/2008 10:47

A positive development might be that (according to the latest issue of Property Week) there have been very few requests for redemption from open-ended funds in December.
This means that the threat of forced sales from these funds might be receding.

I suppose another threat might be the breaching of covenants by companies with higher gearing. So far, evidence seems to be that banks are supportive (eg. Invesco Property Income Trust(IPI)).

[cerrito] 12/1/2008 10:35

bought some friday to get on the dance floor but i imagine I will be topping up at a lower price

[washbrook] 09/1/2008 13:45

Cerrito
I ask myself the same question.
Finally broke downwards below 90p
closed 9.1.07... 87p-87.75p

[cerrito] 06/1/2008 22:03

Never really focused on this before seeing the Telegraph article today's mention.

Big question I have is why the sharebuy back programme has petered out with only 330k being bought back in December following 23m odd being repurchased in the period 1.7.07 to 30.11.07 at much higher prices.
A look at the covenants of the bonds shews there is no problem there and they have the cash-not only the £64m at 607 but also the £40m from the new share issue(those who subscribed for shares at 140p in early October have my commiserations).

Anyone have any views on this??


Agree that the discount is modest compared to others but has low gearing although would have preferred a more diversified portfolio.
Will probably fall somewhat going to be in the West End this week and will poke my nose into St Christopher's

[washbrook] 18/12/2007 15:18

Now bumping along the bottom.
On a double bottom,will it break up from here.
My view the next move will be downwards.

[praipus] 14/12/2007 10:09

Washbrook I think the fact sheet is bi-annual.

[washbrook] 13/12/2007 15:41

I often look at the monthly fact sheet.
Not altered since October.
Worrying.

[chopshs] 20/11/2007 21:59

Sorry to add another negative comment but IPI's last NAV announcement was to end of Sept.
BLND's recent interim results helpfully included a note on subsequent valuation movements according to CBRE:

CB Richard Ellis equivalent yields for prime investment property:
Retail Parks Shopping City Offices West End
(Open User) Centres Offices
September 2007 4.00% 4.75% 4.50% 3.75%
November 2007 4.50% 5.00% 5.00% 4.25%

These changes suggest a further fall of approx 10% in capital values has already occurred and so perhaps IPI's current NAV could be nearer 80p?

Apologies to any longs, I have no position, but I hope this helps.

[chopshs] 20/11/2007 21:44

ISA - Management in IPI got their gearing strategy completely wrong imo. They geared up at exactly the wrong time, expecting to raise equity to get it down again but failed to do so and they've left themselves highly geared when they should have been looking to go the other way. It looks to me as if the managements reputation is reflected in the share price performance over the past few weeks.
Just seen they issued a half yearly report today. You have to smile at some of the comments. They seem to be blaming the valuers for the fall in NAV, not accepting (as most would) that valuers inevitably lag the market and values are falling faster than the valuations. I wouldn't describe a 6.6% vacancy rate as 'low' either.
Message is clear in the report: they've got to sell property to avoid breaching banking covenants and the divi could be cut.
On the positive side much of this may be reflected in the current share price 50% discount certainly looks very tempting but we don't know how much property values are going to fall and how much below current valuations the property will be sold at. Gearing at 65% means a 10% fall in values wipes 28.5% of the equity out.
On balance my view is avoid for now.

[isa23] 20/11/2007 14:31

IPI's NAV was down mostly because gearing amplified property falls, but also because of the transaction costs of buying the European portfolio, which is performing quite well. The failed equity raising has also been a drag, plus the nearly 4p divi paid to shareholders in the quarter. NAV fall should be seen in perspective. The fact that management is mindful of the gearing & is looking to reduce it is reassuring. A fire sale is a big risk, but personally I don't see that happening. The parent company won't let it happen. Amvescap have a big real estate team which I think will be ready to step in & buy some of their portfolio at a fair value. All in all, a good risk/reward ratio IMHO

[washbrook] 20/11/2007 14:09

Up 5p today

[chopshs] 19/11/2007 18:52

Won't be at all surprised to see your 67p in due course not manu.

IPI more highly geared than most but unbelievable how it has tanked. Now at 52.5% discount to significantly reduced NAV and divi nearly 13%!! I thought the divi's might provide some support for these stocks but seemingly not.... I cannot see a lot of risk to the dividends. Anyone disagree?

[not manu] 17/11/2007 16:23

Under a worse case scenario being a fall of 25% in gross assets and applying a discount of 35% to NAV per share, gives a share price of 67p.

Interestingly, 67p would be just below 50% of the all time high. Also, if the 6p dividend is held, you would get a dividend yield of 9%.

I assume everyone's seen the IPI nav announcement (scary!)

Assumption: no change in debt.

[the diviner] 02/11/2007 21:45

I too believe that they could easily drop to 80p.

I had held FCPT shares at around 128p and was lucky to get out at 115p. (You cannot hold back the tide).

Good luck to those who still hold.

Regards,
TD.
(I have no position in FCPT shares).

[chopshs] 02/11/2007 21:01

My crystal ball can see these going to circa 80p sometime soon. Sorry not deramping, I have no position here but these look expensive in comparison to some of the other PIT stocks i.e. IRET now 37% discount and yield 8%. Whole sector getting cheaper day by day...