European Nickel Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 15/8/2012 08:49

Cheers Metex!

I am very sorry that after all our time and energy it has come to this.

Thank you for all your research along the way. Hopefully we will meet up again on some other stock BB.

All the best.
Chip

[togglebrush] 15/8/2012 05:58

Update to Post 7555
'
To meet the takeover of 10.00am on 30th August the offeror's required 90%
_______________Shares_______________________________________________
Issued_______262,104,003
Achieved_____134,241,161 or 51.2% by 8th August
Needed_______101,652,442 to achieve 90% by 29 August close
Target_________8,471,037 per trading day from 9th August for 15 days
Achieved_______5,033,851 per trading day from 9th to 14th

And the market pace continues to slow down
'
Assume that each trade on London Market is either a discrete BUY or SELL then you divide Market volume by 2 to get actual shares traded. Assume that offeror's are the sole buyers.

Swing__Date_____Open__High__Low___Close__Volume___Quartile
5.3% 09/08/2012 18.50 19.50 18.50 19.00 14,380,276 V High...Aviva Sale RNS
2.6% 10/08/2012 18.75 19.00 18.50 19.00 _3,253,301 V High
1.3% 13/08/2012 18.75 18.75 18.50 18.75 _1,487,642 V High
0.0% 14/08/2012 18.50 18.50 18.50 18.50 _1,014,185 V High

[metex] 14/8/2012 19:19

chipperfrd....best of luck....with your other investments....and a big thanks....for your insightful posts....along this bumpy journey....absolutely sure they were appreciated by everyone.

But most of all....for overseeing....and encouraging....through the maintenance of good investment discipline....as thread controller....one of the most good natured....well balanced threads....on advfn.

As with Caldag....Acoje so near....yet so far away!....(perhaps).

Thanks again....for sharing your time and thoughts!

[eelanguilla] 14/8/2012 18:20

dont really get the posts above - dont hold water with me. If you were an "investor" you would know the true value. Putting some spin on it is just fluff imo - you might as well have just said im fed up with this investment and im out cos thats what it is in my book. Some of the explanations above are just waffle tbh

[atlanticbridge] 14/8/2012 15:52

Chip good luck with keeping the wolf from the door :)

[metex] 14/8/2012 15:29

frogkid....thanks.

[frogkid] 14/8/2012 15:22

hi metex,
let me know when you have it

[metex] 14/8/2012 14:11

frogkid....apologies....missed your earlier post.

Sorry to hear you`re out....but want to wish you well....with your future investments

The pleasure is reciprocated....and do admire....how you have been upfront....regarding your investment decisions.

Sure we will meet up again....perhaps on a thread....where it`s not a dentist that`s doing the drilling....but where "Big Bertha" and "Agnetha" are.

Take care.

[frogkid] 14/8/2012 13:18

Posted from the other place from me, I just wanted to be up front with everyone. Metex, it has been a pleasure, I hope to see you around somewhere else. If you would like my personal email then let me know.

regards

frog

This is my post, under the heading "My decision" -"Sorry guys but I have offloaded my stock. I think it would be unfair of me to discuss on here the reasons that I have done this as I know that many of you have decided to stick it out. As some of you know I held quite a few of these and this is not a decision I have taken lightly as I have been around ENK for about 7 years (from memory)

I genuinely wish you all the best if you have decided to hold and I will be rooting for you if another offer materialises.

All the best

Frog

PS - I have taken half the cash from this and chucked into PDL, might even double my money !"

[zangdook] 14/8/2012 11:00

Am I right in thinking that if ENK had been subject to the City Code this couldn't have happened? Is there anything in the Code to stop two sub-30% shareholders suddenly forming a concert party?

[chipperfrd] 14/8/2012 10:45

waleswillwin,

There is certainly nothing to lose by waiting until the bid goes unconditional - the 19p/share cash offer remains on the table as the current 'worst-case' situation. As you say, there may well be a better offer appearing - and I certainly hope that is what transpires for the sake of holders like yourself.

But what has changed irrevocably from my point of view is the investment horizon for ENK.

Prior to this bid there was the prospect of this company going forward into production in it's present guise (subject to how the debt/equity proportion was eventually funded). However, the bid has (in my view) changed this outlook completely.

We already know what lies in wait for holders who do not accept the DMCI offer - basically they have made it quite clear that holders will be trapped within an unlisted entity and severely disadvantaged.

If DMCI do not gain full acceptances they would still control a likely majority on the board - which again, in my view, was contrary to my best interests.

The alternative, one or more competing offers, would improve the immediate situation a bit (ie higher take-out), but the longer-term investment proposition would still be changed to the worst in my opinion as, by definition, any other offer would imply a very distinct shift in equity ownership and would be significantly dilutive to existing holders.

So it has come down to a straight speculation on improved offer price rather than an investment proposition. ie maybe another 10-20% 'perhaps', or taking the 19p now and putting it elsewhere where the upside might be more quantifiable or probable.

In the event, I have taken the latter course simply because I always prefer to try and have the probabilities in my favour and I am an investor rather than a speculator.

But best of luck to all remaining holders. I truly hope that you are rewarded by a higher offer and there would certainly be no 'sour grapes' from me if that were to occur.
Chip

[ian 50] 14/8/2012 10:41

I just hope 19 p is Th offer and we don't get fun and games and see a crazy scenario of a reconsidered bid of 15 p

Just imagine that!!!!

[waleswillwin] 14/8/2012 10:10

I too have been here a long time, I have been waiting for the share price to reflect true value and then I was going to sell. I've never expected to get all I wanted but this is hopeless.
This bid is not unexpected and I'm sure I'm not alone in having raised concerns with the company.
As I understand the offerors statements they presently physically possess some 43+% and have binding agreements on another 8% if the offer succeeds.
They state that tank leaching is risky and they intend to go the DSO route, the board apparently agees with this, is this because no-one has yet produced a detailed BFS report into tank leaching ! I wonder if all the staff in the tank leaching department, that world class group, are looking for other jobs.
Chipperford is far better and more knowledgeable about these things than I, however after sticking with this company for a long time I too have had to consider my response. I am going to wait a few more weeks as I am expecting a better offer as at present everyone knows this offer is to low and they have an awful lot of shares to get yet.

[frogkid] 14/8/2012 10:09

metex, are you looking in ? I wanted you to email me if you dont mind...

[dreamsurfer141] 14/8/2012 09:26

I'm holding out for a better offer... The tone of the takeover RNS is "there's no value here, in fact its a liability, but lucky for you here's 19p" as if they are doing us all a favour. I would very much like to see the BFS published and out in the open so that all investors can see what the real value is.

[chipperfrd] 14/8/2012 09:15

AB

As you know, I have been invested here since the RML/ENK days and have had to suffer all the trials and tribulations of the Turkish forestry permits, on/off Chinese involvement, et al.

All along my single focus has been on eventual longterm production of value-added products and the consequent earnings growth that would follow.

The DMCI take-over is therefore a worst case scenario for me particularly as it has come at such a late stage of all the BFS work and the increasing probability of finally reaching funding and production. Clearly, the timing of the bid is aimed to pre-empt the BFS and to deny long-term holders the prospect of ENK moving into meaningful production and the reasonable expectation of reward for their patience.

Despite my over-riding annoyance and disgust at the derisory price being offered I have had to consider my options without emotion and sentiment. Consequently I have concluded that in all probability the bid will succeed and therefore I decided to close out and re-deploy funds elsewhere without delay.

I would like nothing better than to see a competing bid which might offer an alternative path for holders along the lines of full value-added production - but I consider it unlikely in the circumstances and I am not prepared to gamble more time on that possibility.

So it is with extreme regret I have ceased to be a holder here.

When market conditions are so poor for junior companies these types of events do occur as predators take advantage. I rather expect to see other similar cheap take-outs of vulnerable companies I'm afraid.

All the best
Chip

[atlanticbridge] 14/8/2012 08:37

Chip - would appreciate your thoughts on all this.

AB

[zangdook] 14/8/2012 08:09

The big boys may be waiting for the formal offer to get 19p instead of 18.75p. I'm not sure you can judge the likely scale of acceptances by the on-market trades.

[metex] 14/8/2012 06:51

richscotsman....touché!

Have been wanting to post....quite a few things....along those lines....but holding back....less the opposition pick up any tips....lol.

Just don`t believe this is completely over....as just as the Press initially....wondered who Montoya were....way back in Spring 2011....ENK`s board would have done too!

The other person who maybe has a role to play in all this....is the ENK Chairman....as with his arrival....brought new contacts in the Philippines....to the boardroom table....this from his appointment RNS.....last year:


Mr Rowe has had previous mining experience in the Philippines and previous nickel laterite experience. He will bring extensive project development experience to the Company as it makes the transition from developer to producer over the next few years.


Without posting too much....but did you notice....that with the intention to stop DSO operations at Acoje....and the GHGC deal at ZCMC....ENK were effectively "shutting out" DCMI....from any of their nickel laterite assets.

The offer from DCMI....for Acoje....is maybe their response....to this situation.

If this train of thought is correct...the big question is....what now....is ENK`s response?....DYOR.


(This from the Quarterly Report RNS....dated 26th July 2012:


"Following the successful release of the BFS, the company intends to enter into a strategic partnership with an off-take partner to fund the project with minimal shareholder dilution."


That potential off-take partner.... perhaps isn`t going to take this DCMI situation....lying down either IMHO).


Togglebrush....thanks for that....and your:

"IMHO. The big boys are playing a wait and see game"

Totally agree!

[togglebrush] 14/8/2012 06:46

To meet the takeover of 10.00am on 30th August the offeror's required 90%

Issued_______262,104,003
Achieved_____134,241,161 and 51.2% by 8th August
Needed_______101,652,442 to achieve 90% by 29 August close
15 days________8,471,037 per trading day required from 9th August
Achieved_______6,373,740 per trading day from 9th to 13th

And the pace is slowing

Assume that each trade on London Market is either a discrete BUY or SELL then you divide Market volume by 2 to get actual shares traded. Assume that offeror's are the sole buyers.

Swing__Date_____Open__High__Low___Close__Volume___Quartile
5.3% 09/08/2012 18.50 19.50 18.50 19.00 14,380,276 V High ... See Aviva sale RNS
2.6% 10/08/2012 18.75 19.00 18.50 19.00 _3,253,301 V High
1.3% 13/08/2012 18.75 18.75 18.50 18.75 _1,487,642 V High

Based on ADVFN the Stats for Volume from 1st Jan 2011 are

Maximum______________59,928,218__21st March 2012
1 in 100 Day starts__14,515,287 when big boys trade
Median__________________282,460

Above is London market ... also trades in Australia

London Shares in Issue___AIM 231,915,215
Australia________________ASX _30,188,788 - -
Total Shares in Issue________262,104,003

IMHO. The big boys are playing a wait and see game

[richscotsman] 13/8/2012 22:52

.... Hang on a minute.... With expertise like this on the bod I am sure that they are just playing the first hand of a decent game of poker....

[richscotsman] 13/8/2012 22:36

Hey, anyone checked out their LinkedIn contacts for members of the board of directors?

I checked and you can see that Paul lush is a director of Churchill airports... I hope Clive and Al are taking notes from the enk corporate strategy.

[richscotsman] 13/8/2012 20:14

What a wash out.... I wish warren buffet would enter stage left... Can you imagine.

[stevi111] 13/8/2012 08:43

Shore Capital (SCAP) still hovering up anything and everything on 18.75p offer on Level 2.

I guess they must be buying on behalf of DMCI.