Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
European Gold LSE:EGU London Ordinary Share CA2987741006 COM SHS NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 807.50p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:37:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 31.9 -27.3 -14.7 - 1,421.77

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26/5/201314:0511m oz + of European Gold1,004
08/8/200713:18European Goldfields152

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nermil: Investec note on the deal taken from FT Alphaville below. Seems to stack up with my view, ie a tad disappointing all round. Investec don't seem to expect an alternative bid. Sorry its a bit wordy but interesting. ELD has now officially made an offer for ELD, valuing the company at approximately 812p per share. While this appears to be a miserly 6% premium to the closing price, it is a 25% premium to the price when first news of a potential bid came out and a 32% premium to the 30-day VWAP at the time. This is in line with takeover multiples in the sector (although perhaps at the lower end) and is coincidentally exactly the same takeover premium that ELD paid for Sino Gold (SGX.ASX), as mentioned in our previous note. BE The key points surrounding the offer are: n Signed agreement, unanimously recommended by the EGU board n 0.85 ELD shares plus C$0.0001 cash for every EGU share n EGU shareholders will end up with 22% of ELD n Transaction is to be through a court-approved plan of arrangement, requiring approval from at least two-thirds of EGU shareholders. A special meeting is expected to take place in mid-February 2012. n The transaction also requires majority ELD shareholder approval. n There is a break fee of C$75m, or an expense fee of up to C$30m "upon occurrence of certain other termination events". n No mention of a London main board listing, or a London listing at all. BE Investment thesis. As mentioned in our previous note, ELD is not known for unfriendly takeovers and does not like to revise up its own bid. It likes to have a fully recommended offer to bring to shareholders and this is what it has achieved. While EGU is now "in play" we do not see a strong potential for an alternative bid, given that ELD is in our view the natural acquirer of the EGU assets, given its established presence in the region. While the bid can be seen as opportunistic, given that we feel that EGU's share price did not fully reflect the inherent value of the assets, it does also remove a large layer of development risk, given ELD's strong experience in this regard. On our NAV valuation the transaction undervalues the EGU asset. We estimate the 1.0x P/NAV valuation of EGU's portfolio at 1100p. This allshare deal values them at 812p. What the transaction does do for EGU shareholders is give them an existing c.600k Au oz production base, a strong balance sheet and technical expertise to bring the Skouries and Olympias projects to production. The CAD$13.08/share offer is above the $10/share Qatar Holdings paid for a 9.9% stake recently and well above the $9/share the warrants associated with the loan deal were struck at. And from Olivetree...A bit interesting on possible strategy on part of EGU (extending deadline by accepting ELD bid to give them till after New Year for more approaches... European Goldfields Perspective In Friday's note (below) we highlighted the fact that the key to valuing the projects NPVs was to determine an appropriate cost of capital. For example, one could argue that the see-through yield on the Qatari Loans was 14% after adjusting for the dilution implied value of the warrant packages. European Goldfields Perspective In Friday's note (below) we highlighted the fact that the key to valuing the projects NPVs was to determine an appropriate cost of capital. For example, one could argue that the see-through yield on the Qatari Loans was 14% after adjusting for the dilution implied value of the warrant packages. Despite talking of "a number of approaches", it is curious that EGU management have so readily recommended a transaction at only a minimal premium to market – and indeed all-stock (which will trade weakly today). This can perhaps be explained by the pressing timeline though – remembering that there was a shareholder vote re the proposed Qatari financing pacakge scheduled for 22nd Dec (this Thursday). By agreeing to the Eldorado transaction, management have locked in a transaction shareholders can vote upon (it requires a 66% approval) – whilst extending the effective deadline for any interested third parties until the New Year. It is likely therefore that the market prices in some optionality of another bid – although we await further details of Blackrock's lock-up agreement. Early indications (from the illiquid EAU AU) are that ELD CN will fall 3.5% as arbs look to hedge the deal. However, we think the longer-term the market should reward ELD for a visibly accretive transaction.
nermil: Bit disappointing this. 0.85 for each ELD share and that makes around £7.30 for EGU based on ELD price right now. Yes mpclag its directly linked to ELD share price. Explains the drop. It seems our fortunes are now tied to ELD's, at least for the time being. Does anyone have any opinions on this company? I've been on holiday and have been trying to avoid my dire SIPP (too much a downer!).
mcmather: Lets see what happens; Eldorado has been as high as C$21.95 in the past few months (52 weeks) *0.85 (ELD share for EGU share) / 1.61 (C$ / £) = £11.50 ish?
manics: Press Release Source: CNF 16:19, Tuesday 6 December 2011  Suite 200, Financial Plaza 204 Lambert Street Whitehorse, Yukon Canada Y1A 3T2 For Immediate Release STATEMENT BY EUROPEAN GOLDFIELDS LIMITED REGARDING SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT 6 December 2011 - European Goldfields Limited " or the "Company" acknowledges the Company's recent trading activity and announces that the Company has received preliminary and indicative approaches from third parties regarding potential corporate transactions. No formal offers have been received and there can be no assurances that any transaction will result from any of these approaches. The Company does not intend commenting further on these or other proposals unless a definitive agreement is reached with any third party or unless otherwise required by law.
foot in mouth: My thoughts are how/whether this will effect in any way their full London listing now they have secured the necessary funds. Hopefully the Qatari news will nicely raise the share price on Monday - I have no clue as to where it will go though. Good luck all holders!
bangor: (Part of Sky reference above from Analyst008): "A Qatari sovereign wealth fund is this weekend in talks to buy a $1bn stake in the London-listed company behind one of the biggest gold mining projects in Greece, I can exclusively reveal. Qatar Holding, owner of the department store Harrods, is poised to sign a deal that will give it a big shareholding in European Goldfields, which is listed on the London and Toronto stock exchanges. The deal could be announced as early as today and, assuming it goes through, will be confirmed in a statement to the City on Monday." End of quote. This is confirmed by an article on the front page of today's Sunday Times business section and should put a rocket under the share price.
seagreen: RNS Number : 0151K European Goldfields Ltd 07 July 2011 Suite 200, Financial Plaza 204 Lambert Street Whitehorse, Yukon Canada Y1A 3T2 Company Update 7(th) July 2011 - European Goldfields Limited (AIM: EGU / TSX: EGU) (the"Company") has noted the recent movement in its share price. The Company would like to confirm that over recent days it has been in active and close dialogue with the Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change ("MOE"), regarding the permitting of its Greek projects. Based upon those discussions, the Company is highly confident of a positive outcome. Remarks reported in the press today, following a press conference held by the MOE, further underscore that level of confidence. About European Goldfields European Goldfields is a developer-producer with globally significant gold reserves located within the European Union. The Company generates cash flow from its 95% owned Stratoni operation, a high grade lead/zinc/silver mine in North-Eastern Greece. European Goldfields will evolve into a mid-tier producer through responsible development of its project pipeline of gold and base metal deposits at Skouries and Olympias in Greece and Certej in Romania. The Company plans future growth through development of its highly prospective exploration portfolio in Greece, Romania and Turkey.
7bore: "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?". DATE...............................13.01.11 OTC SHARE SHARE PRICE.....2.21p OTC SHARES IN ISSUE........1,734,275,487 OTC MKT CAP....................£38.3m OTC CASH.........................approx. £4.2m (Cash based on results for the year ending 30 September 2010 of £3.296m and OTCs 500,000 VGM shares worth around £0.9m at 180.75p/share.) OPTIVA RESEARCH NOTE, 05 Jan 11: "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?". The recent Optiva note, has the heading "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?". European Goldfields (EGU)is an AIM listed company, and is a developer/producer with 10Moz gold in Europe. ( EGU has a current Mkt Cap of £1.7 billion (191,838,979 shares X 890p) ( A 1Moz gold resource is a significant psychological barrier. This is the number that makes others sit up and take notice of explorers like OTC. OTC have said they expect to announce "in excess of 1Moz" in "early January". As a direct comparison, 1Moz is 10% of EGUs 10Moz therefore valuing 1Moz at a potential £170m. OTC has a current mkt cap of £38.3m (1,724,137,931 shares x 2.21p).This means that when OTC announce a 1Moz resource they could be potentially worth as much as £170m, or 9.86p per share. Obviously this is not a fair comparison as EGU are already a developer/producer while OTC is still just an explorer so EGU thoroughly deserves their premium. However, it does give an idea of the potential value of a 1Moz gold resource. There are many other "goldies" with a 1Moz gold resource, many of which are valued at around £130m - £150m thus further emphasising the potential value of a 1Moz gold resource. Currently, using the Jan 10 "Edison" valuation for a LONDON listed company, (and updated for a gold price of $1415) then this values the gold at $502.80/Oz Measured,$107.08/Oz Indicated and $4.71/Oz Inferred. Using this basis, then OTCs current gold "in ground" JORC of 665,800 Oz Au (220,600 Oz Measured,315,200 Oz Indicated,130,000 Oz Inferred) is worth £90.22m or 5.2p/share...and we haven't had the upgrade yet! By definition: MEASURED - The locations are spaced closely enough to confirm geological and grade continuity INDICATED - The locations are too widely or inappropriately spaced to confirm geological and/or grade continuity but are spaced closely enough for continuity to be assumed. INFERRED - Of limited or uncertain quality and reliability. As can be seen from the above Edison valuation, anything in the INDICATED category is worth 22.73x more than Inferred and a MEASURED resource is worth a staggering 106.75x more than the "limited or uncertain quality and reliability" INFERRED ! This is exceptionally important when valuing a JORC resource. Its almost all about the quality of the resource, not just the quantity, ie the Measured & Indicated categories. OTC has 80.9% of their resource in the all important MEASURED & INDICATED categories. This is what makes OTC stand out from most of the other explorers. The importance of this cannot be stressed enough. For example, CNR were a stellar performer ahead of their widely anticipated maiden JORC announcement recently, racing from around 0.4p to around 10.25p. They finally announced their maiden JORC of 868,000 Oz gold. This is more than OTCs 665,800 Oz gold. However, and most importantly, 100% of the CNR JORC was in the INFERRED (of limited or uncertain quality and reliability) and only worth £2.62m or 0.53p/share. On the day of the RNS, they had a mkt cap of £50.5m at 10.25p/share but only had gold worth £2.62m or 0.53p/share. The only reason the share price didn't completely collapse to around 1p was because, in the same RNS they said they were expecting to upgrade some of that INFERRED resource to the INDICATED category within the next 3 months without any further work. If it wasn't for this single comment it would have been disastrous. Even if one assumes they could transfer 50% of their INFERRED to the INDICATED category (and thats being generous) then, when they announce the upgrade in around 3 months time, the new Edison valuation would value CNR at around £32.79m or 6.3p/share: CNR (assuming a generous 50/50 split): INDICATED...434,000 Oz at $107.08/Oz...$48.49m (£30.8m)...6.26p/share INFERRED....434,000 Oz at $4.71/Oz.....$20.44m (£1.99m)...0.04p/share Another example is HUM. HUM have a current Canadian NI 43-101 resource of 812koz gold. This is directly comparable to a JORC according to Wiki. "The National Instrument 43-101 is broadly comparable to the Joint Ore Reserves Committee Code (JORC Code)" "In many cases, NI 43-101 and JORC Code technical reports are considered inter-changeable" Again, their gold of 812Koz sounds like its better than OTC's 665.8Koz gold. But because HUM do NOT have anything at all in the all important MEASURED category, then OTC actually has a far bigger value with less gold, ie OTC gold is worth £90.22m (mkt cap £38.3m at 2.21p) while HUMs gold is worth £31.58m (mkt cap of £87m). You do the maths. Don't forget OTC also have a 5,403,200 Oz silver JORC. Again, the vast majority of OTCs silver is in the all important "Measured" & "Indicated" category. On 12 Nov 10,Edison issued an Arian Silver update giving silver values of $13.7/oz Measured,$6.16/Oz Indicated, $0.88/Oz Inferred based on a silver price of $27.19/oz. HOWEVER, the value of silver has now increased to $29.14/Oz, an increase of 7.2%. This gives up to date values of: Measured....1,780,700..$14.68/Oz...$26,140,676.....£16.74m...0.97p/share Indicated...2,742,100..$6.60/Oz...$18,097,860.....£11.59m....0.67p/share Inferred....880,400....$0.94/Oz...$827,576......£529,971...0.03p/share In other words, OTCs silver "in ground" alone is currently worth £28.86m or 1.67p/share...and we haven't had the upgrade yet! But it doesn't stop there. OTCs current "in ground" gold/silver resources are worth £119m (6.84p/share)...but they are based on only 1.2km of their 6.5km strike length at Kreminica. This is hugely important. Assuming they achieve a similar resource to the first 1.2km (and there is no reason why they couldn't)then this could result in a potential 500% increase to the Kremnica resource alone, ie £595m or 34.2p/share. But it doesn't stop there. In the Optiva Research Note,dated 05 Jan 11, they gave a 6 month target of 3.45p....but this was based on the CURRENT known resource at Kremnica alone. This target did NOT include: 1.....The imminent resource upgrade. 2.....The Brazilian iron ore project 3.....The 9 gold exploration licences in eastern Slovakia. They said that the imminent resource upgrade (expected to be "in excess of 1Moz" in "early January) would "lead to a re-rating". But it doesn't stop there. Optiva went on to say: • The Kremnica resource has "a high 80.9% is in the Measured and Indicated categories". • "the current resource statement includes only 1.2km of the known 6.5km strike length" • "Furthermore the management reckon that the exploration licence areas immediately to the south of the Kreminca mining licence area holds potential to host further significant resources." Thats fantastic news. Not only are OTC expecting further significant resource upgrades from the remaining part of the 6.5km strike length as mentioned in 2 above, but OTC expect "further significant resource upgrades" from south Kremnica ! • Zlata Bana, one of their 9 Slovakian exploration licenses "could be quickly converted from a Slovak to JORC code compliant resource of 360,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold equivalent in the Indicated and Inferred categories." It says they think this is "low grade" but advise progressing the project further to learn more about the mineralisation and project area". • "Ortac may look to add new interests in Slovakia and possibly elsewhere in Europe. Potential project additions are likely to made within the Carpatho‐Balkan metallogenic belt, that runs from Slovakia through eastern Europe to Turkey. As illustrated below, a number of world class deposits have been identified within this prolific gold region including Beregovo, Ukraine (4.5m oz), Rosia Montana, Romania (10.0m oz) and Chelopech, Bulgaria (5.0moz)." FANTASTIC ! • The Brazilian iron ore project - "plans to conduct a low cost ground magnetic survey over the project area to identify potential areas for future drilling work in the early part of this year." So its not really surprising that the recent Optiva note, has the heading "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?" ! ------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: • Mkt cap of £38.4m at 2,21p. • Cash of approx. £4.2m (including 500k VGM shares). • Current gold "in ground" is worth £90.22m or 5.2p/share. • Current silver "in ground" is worth £28.86m or 1.67p/share • Imminent upgrade to "in excess of 1moz" in "early January" • 80.9% of the current resource is in the all important Measured and Indicated categories. • The current gold/silver and upgrade is only for 1.2km of their 6.5km strike this giving a potential 500% increase in resources to around £595m or 34.2p/share for just the 6.5km strike length alone. • The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include the south of the Kreminca mining licence area which "holds potential to host further significant resources". • The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include the 9 Slovakian licenses. • The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include the 77% owned Brazilian Iron Ore project. • There will be a "low cost ground magnetic survey" in early 2011 at the 77% owned Brazilian Iron Ore project. • The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include "Potential project additions" in an area of "world class deposits" in the "prolific gold region including Beregovo, Ukraine (4.5m oz), Rosia Montana, Romania (10.0m oz) and Chelopech, Bulgaria (5.0moz)" • Optiva hint that ORTAC could be "The next European Goldfields Ltd?", a 10Moz au £1.7 billion company. These are my own personal opinions of course. You need to do your own research and reach your own conclusions. They may well be very different from mine. 00
willyworm2: UBS initiate coverage today... We initiate coverage of European Goldfields, a London AIM-listed mining group, with a Buy rating and £7.9 per share price target, implying c15% potential upside to the current share price. European Goldfields is a gold and base metals mining and development company with an existing base metals operation in Greece, along with major gold projects located in Greece and Romania. Looking to be a half-million ounce gold producer: European Goldfields has an advanced pipeline of growth projects that could ultimately lead to gold production of 500-600koz per annum in the medium term through development of the Olympias, Skouries and Certej deposits. Work on the design for the retreatment of gold bearing tailings at Olympias is advanced (awaiting final permits in preparation for 2011 production). Re-rating is likely after clearing the project permitting stage: European Goldfields is currently trading on a P/NPV of c1.2x, based on our estimates, below the industry average of c1.6x and well below some of its more established peers. We expect European Goldfields to re-rate as it clears the permitting process for its major projects (which we expect in the coming year) and enters the construction stage. Valuation: £5.65 per share NPV: price target £7.90 per share We calculate a NPV of £5.65 per share and set our price target at £7.90, using a P/NPV of 1.4x. We remain positive on gold and expect prices to average US$1,255/oz in H2-10 and US$1,295/oz in 2011E, in-line with current spot levels.
bangor: mcmather I had already familiarised myself with the previous posts and felt referring to the market differential as a "schoolboy error" was being hard on yourself. I appreciate the importance of the Canadian market but view it differently. I bought my EGU tranches in sterling and will sell in sterling with no currency transactions. The EGU price in £, while not operating in a vacuum, is what I follow. Anyhow, that quibble aside, having held throughout the dark days of late 2008, I am enjoying the ride.
European Gold share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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