Etfs Fliv Discussion Threads

[sheeneqa] 27/11/2008 15:40

Sold out of these, and with a substantial profit sterling wise!

[sheeneqa] 13/7/2008 19:55

Hog-Wild Grain Prices Putting the Pinch on Livestock Farmers
Iowa livestock farmers aren't living high on the hog these days.

Recent flooding in this key section of America's farm belt dealt yet another blow to farmers. They're already in a bind due to sky-high feed costs and low livestock prices.


"Livestock farmers and meat producers across the country have been dealing with soaring feed costs for nearly two years," explains a recent Wall Street Journal article.

"Now, heavy flooding in Iowa is sending corn prices even higher. Thursday, the corn futures contract for July delivery closed at US$7.27 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, up about 13% from two weeks ago."

We're in the midst of a long-term bull market in commodities. In this kind of cycle, all commodity prices eventually soar to record highs, but performance is uneven from commodity to commodity.

While everyone is focused on soaring crude oil prices, some of the best values in commodity markets are in the agricultural sub-sector - especially livestock prices (lean hogs and live cattle).

According to my colleague Eric Roseman: "Over the last six years, live cattle and lean hogs have gained just under 30% in nominal terms, or up barely 4% adjusted for inflation."

Livestock has essentially been standing still compared to soaring grain and energy prices. In fact, over roughly the same time frame, crude oil is up over 600% in value! Corn prices (a key feedstock for livestock) are up 120% in the past year alone!

You might say Eric is hog-wild for livestock, and I believe he's right on the money. Look for the next big round of commodity market gains to come soon.

[sheeneqa] 25/4/2008 12:23

The shortage of food cannot be solved by closing US markets, no matter how Mr. Gartman feels, as food trades everywhere and traders that matter trade everywhere. That will be factored into the dollar/euro relationship. In Asia a shift has been made from eating a purely carbohydrate diet to eating a protein diet and that WILL NOT reverse, no matter how much Mr. Gartman feels the impact of stopping US futures trading on foods means.

[sheeneqa] 06/4/2008 17:50

And the Ag Bargain Parade goes on... Soybeans are at a 62% discount to their all-time high. Corn, coffee and sugar are down 63%, 66% and 94% from their inflation adjusted highs of the mid-1970's!

And it's not just the grains. The livestock that eat the grains are selling at historic lows too. Take hogs: adjusted for inflation they're 82% below their 1975 high!

The Soaring Cost of Food Goes Far Beyond Your Supermarket

In the U.S., eggs are up 24% from a year ago. Milk's up 26%. The Wall Street Journal calls it 'the worst food inflation in 17 years.'

In Europe, they're not getting off any easier. Bread's up 12%, milk isup 25% and butter is up 45%. 'And that's just breakfast!' says the International Herald Tribune.

And in the developing world -- where so many live on the edge of poverty -- the problem is now a crisis. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reports 37 countries face food crises, 20 have imposed export controls and no fewer than 12 -- from Argentina and Mexico to Cameroon and Indonesia -- have had food riots break out in recent weeks.

And, all the while, pressures continue to mount as the competition for crops heats up in the global battle of food versus fuel.

One thing above all is clear: The Era of Cheap Food and Cheap Energy is over. And this affects far more than the cost of your meals.

It's impacting taxes and consumer spending. In the U.S., 3.8 million people now qualify for and receive food stamps -- more than at any time since the program was launched in the 1960's.
It's affecting International relations. The prime minister of Vietnam recently agreed to a request by the President of the Philippines to provide emergency aid to alleviate a rice shortage.
National energy and food-subsidy programs are affected. Developing countries from China to India have recently implemented biofuel-development programs, putting further pressure on the growing global demand for crops.
And it's impacting the bottom line of companies ranging from retail to food, energy, plastics and industrial materials.
eric roseman



These discounts are huge! After all, when something falls 50%, it has to rise 100% to get back to even. When it falls 90%, it has to rise 900% to get back to square one!

That means each of these commodities must rise over 100%, some as much as 200% and 400%...and even as much as 1,000% (!)...just to reach their all-time inflation-adjusted highs of over 33 years ago!

Combine these still-low prices with unprecedented surging demand for biofuels and food -- and you have the perfect situation for an historic bull market.

That's why they've already begun a rapid move up. And that's why I expect many of the most hotly demanded agricultural and livestock commodities to burst to new highs in inflation-adjusted terms, creating opportunities for profits of two to four, even six times your money.

[sheeneqa] 10/3/2008 10:58

CHICAGO, Mar 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Chicago Mercantile Exchange hogs closed mixed Friday, with April through August firm on short covering and on April/June forward spreading that outpaced the migration of longs out of spot-April into nearby-June. Meanwhile, far hog months bowed to limit-down Chicago Board of Trade corn pressure.
Most live cattle months ended weak and pork bellies closed mostly limit down while feeder cattle settled higher.
Front-month lean hogs gained at the start on residual short covering following Thursday's board rally that was sparked by word that China faces pork shortages this summer because of harsh wintry weather earlier this year that killed pigs.

[sheeneqa] 09/3/2008 17:01

Food Inflation Soaring - and Farmers Are Lovin' it
Since February 2007, Hard Kansas City wheat has surged 129%, soybeans have soared 107% and corn prices have rallied 34%. That means you'll pay more for your Quaker Oatmeal every morning with oats surging 61% year-over-year. Bran prices have gained 36% and barley has zoomed ahead with a 71% gain.

Other foodstuffs are also on a tear, including soybean oil, palm oil, dairy products and soft breakfast commodities like coffee and cocoa.

In 2006, for the first time in 15 years, global food production, at 0.9%, fell below the 1.2% growth rate of the world's population. Increasingly, the world is at the forefront of a major food crisis, especially in the developing world where the United Nations has declared an emergency to meet chronic grain shortages.

The entire U.S. and international farm-belt is relishing huge profits since 2006. That's a nice change compared to the 20 previous years of falling prices since the grains peaked in the early 1980s.

Until recently, U.S. farm income suffered from a major bear market that started in 1985. Lately, those same down-on-their-luck farmers have watched their incomes jump 22% over the last 12 months. Two years ago, income was barely climbing 1%.

As you can imagine, farmers are taking advantage of this income boost. They're ramping up production as agricultural and food export prices have gained 30% over the past year. In fact, these higher prices have resulted in a total food trade surplus of US$3 billion versus US$915 million in February 2007.


Wheat Supplies Collapse...Everywhere But in the U.S.

Supply and demand dictates the primary trend for commodities more than any other single variable. Many commodities remain in net supply deficit this year and the situation is growing worse as agri-phobia grips the globe.

Global wheat harvests, for example, have been nothing short of disastrous since 2006. Argentina, Canada, Australia, Russia, Ukraine and other growers have produced some of the lowest yields in decades following major droughts.

As supplies continues to decline, only the United States has a net export capability in 2008 because the U.S. wheat supply still exceeds domestic demand. But even in America, inventories are set to plunge to their lowest levels in 60 years as the rest of the world increasingly absorbs the U.S. wheat surplus.


Exporters Slap Tariffs, Curb Exports

Many primary wheat producers are now limiting their grain exports. Kazakhstan, a leading exporter of spring wheat, announced export tariffs last week to curb sales.
Argentina, China and Russia have also announced similar restrictions as wheat prices continue to skyrocket, hitting daily limits throughout most of the last 90 days on global exchanges.

Food inflation has arrived. Combined with US$100-plus crude oil and surging gasoline prices, it's no wonder the American consumer is slowing down.


Out of Control

To be sure, agricultural commodities are severely overbought at these levels. Many institutional investors, including hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisors are now heavily long on this sector with leverage.

A major reversal lies ahead for the grains and other soft commodities this spring. Several countries are aggressively planting wheat, particularly Australia and the Ukraine. These nations are struggling to boost domestic stockpiles, and any meaningful growth in yields will seriously cut this rally short overnight.

If you're a new investor, I advise you sit on the sidelines and wait for a correction in agricultural prices. However, one segment of the commodity bull market remains distressed and that's livestock and lean hogs. Livestock is still trading at the same levels compared to six years ago. I've got to believe that with inputs for feeder soaring, it's only a matter of time until steak and bacon join the commodity bull market.

Also, I'm currently researching another way to ride the second wave of profits in soft commodities. I'll give you details as soon as I can. Look for more information coming soon.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director

[sheeneqa] 11/1/2008 22:21

65% livestock
35% lean hogs.