Erinaceous Share Discussion Threads

[harty1] 19/3/2008 08:42

Most of the decent key people still in situ, insurance market moving upwards, consolidators prowling and paying top dollar, steady income, brand "untouched" as they didn't use the E name, plenty of suitors

They will get (assuming they sell!) upwards of £100M and if not, I reckon they'll trade on as the banks will kow they have a good business with excellent distribution

Consolidators are looking at 12 x profits in this market

[ch2175] 18/3/2008 00:48

One of the reports I read was that the insurance arm was independently valued at £97M last April. That was before the brand was decimated last September and before the crisis of confidence broke out.
Anyone intersted now is bargain hunting and I think that the spread is more likely to fall into the range £20M to £35M.
We will know in a couple of weeks time.

[yvain] 17/3/2008 18:03

To be fair most of the skeletons in the closet are in the property bit but there's no question the insurance divisions performance has taken a major dip in the last 6 months on top of poor performance prior to that. I think they may get between £50m & £75m for it.

[ch2175] 17/3/2008 13:56

Everyone who has ever done any due diligence has walked with the possible exception of Jordans but those guys were on the inside and so would have known wat they were dealing with.
£100M - Not a chance!

[yvain] 13/3/2008 22:54

Report in today's insurance times that Zurich are on the verge of acquiring the insurance division but surprise surprise talks have stalled on price. Allegedly they're not willing to pay the £100m demanded. Unbelievably ERG are still pretending they don't have to sell and saying it's one of a range of options being pursued as part of an ongoing strategic review. That would be the review which was supposed to be finished in January!

Presumably they had agreed a price and Zurich have discovered on due diligence that the business is walking out of the door. No doubt a deal will be done but it's obvious who's in the strong negotiating position!

At under £100m that's final confirmation, if anyone needed it, that the group can't afford to pay the debt back.

[ch2175] 12/3/2008 13:32

still massively over-priced at these levels

[andrbea] 12/3/2008 10:22

a 138k buy at 2.15 righted the ship

all buys since



bid has gone 1.90 to 2.35 since

[davidlloyd] 12/3/2008 09:15

Finally sinking?

[yvain] 11/3/2008 19:15

They don't seem to have acknowledged that they promised the results of their "strategic reviews" well before now. I think we know the answers though!

[ch2175] 10/3/2008 08:47

They dont "have" to publish until well after the year end (10 months I think) but previously they came out around the end of March I think. There will probably be some form of "update" prised out of them before then in relation to disposals.

[yvain] 09/3/2008 22:38

Anyone know when they have to publish their annual results?

[ch2175] 07/3/2008 14:35

It seems that DB have provided plenty of liquidity if anyone wants some more and are now down below 3%.
Anyone advise where you can get an up to date list of significant holdings from?

[yvain] 07/3/2008 08:26

It's not only the Cheshire case but what else may come out of the woodwork.

[ch2175] 03/3/2008 15:02

certainly is strange the way it pivots around just above and below the 3p mark with such little volume of shares changing hands and little by way of news.
what did you manage to get in at Stromboli?

[stromboli] 03/3/2008 13:30

Another small increase in bid for NO apparent reason jumped -3% to +1.7%

[stromboli] 03/3/2008 08:26

ch2175 Thanks for your insight into this company. It is realised the fire sale referance applies to asset disposal. It is that with the very negative news and supposed fire sale I would have expected large volume selling in fact panic selling, the MM's must be holding large quantities of shares after the drop which must be spoken for. However I will be watching very carefully for any movement up or down.

[ch2175] 02/3/2008 21:43

The fire sale was a reference to a sell off of parts of the business not the shares in it. Jordans is rumoured to have gone for a snip and the insurance division is being hawked around. If they can get a bit of cash in for anything with value that will still leave a huge amount of debt and only the crud left to service it. The Banks will have reduced their exposure and the shareholders get left high and dry when the banks swap the remaining debt for a 90% stake through new share allocation. Your profitable holding around 3p will be hard to shift at .25p and therefore I think as one of the very few to be showing a profit here you should try to lock it in.
As regards the MBO of the Commercial division I can't see that going anywhere until the Cheshire legal case is finally resolved because until it is it will be impossible for the MBO team to obtain funding. In any event, some parts of that division are now so badly decaying it won't produce very much of a price anyway.
Beware of looking at the spread in isolation to volume. There used to be an average of 2million shares in these traded daily and now its often a fraction of that. if the scenario described above was wrong then FURSA could have piled in at such low levels and siezed control. They haven't because the debt is so high that the banks have been in control ever since the covenant breach was acknowlegded 5 months ago. The company keeps saying that the banks are being "supportive" but in reality they are only supporting their own over-exposed positions by letting this hedgehog keep limping along.

[stromboli] 29/2/2008 16:21

ch2175 already small profit hopeing for more.Where are all the shares from fire sale if mm's have them I would'nt expect such tight spread.

[ch2175] 29/2/2008 13:42

Hi Stromboli
There has been hardly any volume for weeks and I cant see any evidence of any significant upward creep either.
Simply the market has adjusted to a 3p environment after the volatility associated with a fall from £4 in less than a year.
Still hugely overvalued in my book because after the fire sale and legals all that will be left will be tens of millions of debt which the banks will have to write off. Shareholders will get nothing.
Do you hold a contrary view or are you just looking at this as a potential recovery position?

[stromboli] 29/2/2008 09:19

Man Overboard & ch2175. In the light of your observations, why is erg slowly creeping upwards and with a very small spread?

[ch2175] 29/2/2008 08:31

Man Overboard - I doubt that DH even carry £10M in PI and certainly no more and in any event £10M was only an interim judgement. There is more to come and at a final hearing and on top pf that it says in the Cheshire BS results that their costs to the year end were another £0.9M.
They were probably holding off enforcement of the judgement until the final hearing is out of the way.

[man overbored] 28/2/2008 22:56

Well, as CBS also say they are litigating against the lawyers who acted for them in the loan transaction supported by the DH valuation, one imagines that between them, DH & their PI insurers are not good for the £10mln.

[yvain] 28/2/2008 22:12

I've always had my doubts about the PI cover. Andreab you can't seriously still think this is anything but a dead duck?

[ch2175] 28/2/2008 09:13

Not a good idea to turn up in front of the Judge for the final judgement hearing if the interim judgement hasnt been complied with.
If Cheshire havent been paid the interim judgement I suspect that there isnt adequate PI cover in place. I think that they could issue a winding up notice at any time should they wish to.

[andrbea] 28/2/2008 07:37

nta has gone from 47p to 70p in 2008
let's hope property (as a sector) is on the turn