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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erinaceous | ERG | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.65 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 1.65 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 21/5/2008 12:48 by simon gordon Good insight on ERG breaking up:----- Insight on Lucy Cummings: |
Posted at 19/3/2008 15:21 by harty1 YvainNot my understanding with regards to top people and none of the so called names who have left had been with them long in any event as far as I can see so what do they take other than what they may have brought with them? There is plenty of consolidating going on, Giles, Towergate, Broker Network, etc and its a weekly event. Rates are and will move up, insurers are looking to cover positions and if an insurer purchases then they have the readies! I think it will go for more than £ 100M - If I'm wrong then so be it but thats my view and I think this part of ERG have continually overperformed when compares with ERG itself and are quality businesses with good loyal staff I do accept that they may look to try their luck and push for a distressed sale but there's no guarantee they'll get it |
Posted at 13/3/2008 22:54 by yvain Report in today's insurance times that Zurich are on the verge of acquiring the insurance division but surprise surprise talks have stalled on price. Allegedly they're not willing to pay the £100m demanded. Unbelievably ERG are still pretending they don't have to sell and saying it's one of a range of options being pursued as part of an ongoing strategic review. That would be the review which was supposed to be finished in January!Presumably they had agreed a price and Zurich have discovered on due diligence that the business is walking out of the door. No doubt a deal will be done but it's obvious who's in the strong negotiating position! At under £100m that's final confirmation, if anyone needed it, that the group can't afford to pay the debt back. |
Posted at 29/2/2008 09:19 by stromboli Man Overboard & ch2175. In the light of your observations, why is erg slowly creeping upwards and with a very small spread? |
Posted at 30/1/2008 13:45 by 3raptor No, I think the strategy would be don't bother buying them at all as you have the infrastructure and all the people to make it work while ERG dies a slow (or quick) death. You certainly won't get anyone buying ERG on the odd bit of good property news either. This is still a dead hedgehog although I admire your optimism! |
Posted at 08/1/2008 09:10 by andrbea would be nice if a bidding war developed over the prime assetseg Caan had a rumoured interest for all or part of ERG (Dec 22) and this story too from Jan 7: Towergate was recently rumoured to be considering a bid for the insurance services arm of troubled property group Erinaceous. About 20 staff at Erinaceous have left the ailing firm over the past few months to join Towergate.Industry heavyweights on Towergate's board include deputy chairman Patrick Snowball, who was formerly a director of Aviva and executive chairman of Norwich Union. nia dyor |
Posted at 27/9/2007 10:09 by simon gordon This section from the Interims is just pure bonkers:'The Group is now reporting the results of the property transactions division separately as their maturity and size grows and the profits from this source continue to exceed expectations. The results of this division are now shown separately. Since the beginning of July, the division has been involved in managing the acquisition of Fairoaks Airport. In the first six months the division derived its profit from selling a development project in Croydon and the Group's west end office. The property transaction division is involved in the project management of transactions aiming to derive significant profits and value for the Group. Typically the Group will derive value from a property situation which has one or more of the following elements: Where property assets are undervalued within a complex operating company structure; Where there are site building opportunities and value creation can be achieved by combining assets and benefiting from their marriage value; Where it is possible to realise, over a period of 12-24 months, the untapped value of existing Group property and land assets by working on development plans, tenant searches etc; and Where the Group's wide range of skills allows it to identify value creating and/or arbitrage situations from which it can realise "super-profit" fees, profit shares or back to back sale and purchase profits. Any individual transaction is likely to involve senior professionals within the agency teams (typically identifying potential opportunities); the investment advisory team (reviewing third party funding opportunities); building consultancy (to review planning potential of sites); and senior Board members (overseeing the overall transactions). Erinaceous aims to make profits from these transactions without risking the Group's capital and the Group will not become a property developer or speculator. The Group will only undertake these transactions where the following criteria are met: Every transaction is cash neutral or positive on day one (or where deferred consideration is accepted and it is anticipated to become cash positive within six months); Where assets are retained by the Group in respect of any deal these will form part of the profit uplift rather than risk a deal becoming unprofitable if property market conditions were to worsen before the assets were sold; The Group will not undertake site development or other value creation opportunities which require additional debt funding or capital investment; and The Group will only enter transactions where there is a high likelihood of ongoing revenue streams being derived in the Group's core property services divisions (e.g. fund management, asset management, building consultancy services, agency etc). Profits realised in the first half related to the realisation of assets owned by the Group and held in fixed assets in prior periods. Much of the profit realised arose from the Group's ability to create marriage value when adjacent land and property became available and it was clear the combined property and land asset would be worth significantly more than the sum of its constituent parts. As a result these profits are held within the property transactions division and it is for this reason that, in the first half, revenues from the division appear lower than operating profits. This division is expected to carry out a modest number of transactions each year but is capable of delivering significant profits to the Group in the medium and long term. Profits realised between July and September indicate the division will have a substantially more profitable second half compared to its performance in each of the three preceding half years (c. £5m profits for each six month period). Looking forward, potential further profits - arising from some new property situations and some existing assets and contingent assets owned by the Group - should be realisable in the next eighteen months.' ----- I think the Board have collectively lost their minds to sign this off. ---- I think ERG will be bust by Xmas and the banks will be lucky to get 50% of their capital back. |
Posted at 12/5/2007 12:30 by simon gordon An old bit from FT Alphaville - 19/4/07:PM: ERG NH: Erinaceous Group you mean PM: NH: stock up 10p to 277.75p PM: What's that on the back of? NH: report in the Telegraph this morning which says Bridgepoint could be interested in bidding for the heavily indebted property services company that has made loads of acquisitions in recent years PM: Does the story sound believable? NH: it does. I am sure it is right but it carries one really interested caveat PM: And what might that be? NH: that Birdgepoint's interest is so preliminary that it has not even appointed bankers to work on the deal PM: Helen's just emailed me the story ... PM: PRIVATE equity firm Bridgepoint is understood to have made a preliminary approach to property management company Erinaceous, which has also received a pounds 350m- pounds 375m buyout approach from rival private equity group 3i. On Monday, Erinaceous said it had "received preliminary approaches which may or may not lead to an offer being made for the company\'\'. Bridgepoint is understood to be one of the buyout firms that has held talks with some of the management prior to that announcement. The talks between Erinaceous and Bridgepoint are understood to be highly preliminary and may not necessarily lead to an offer, sources said. Bridgepoint is understood to have not yet appointed investment bankers to advise on a formal offer for the company, while the Erinaceous management has yet to come up with a formal business plan. PM: City sources said Erinaceous\'s management team had been considering a sale of the business to private equity following a period when some investors had been taking aggressive short positions in the stock - that is, selling shares they do not own in the belief that they can buy them back cheaper at a later date. However, Erinaceous\'s management is understood to believe the company is undervalued. Neil Bellis, chief executive, and Lucy Cummings, chief operating officer, spent almost pounds 1m each on shares after the results in March. They control 17pc of the company. The shares, which were trading just under 390p at the start of the year, rose 7½ to 267¾p, giving the company a market value of pounds 278m. Erinaceous and Bridgepoint declined to comment. NH: oh yeah, i forgot the bit about ERG not even having a business plan NH: this all sounds very odd PM: Certainly does NH: the more and more I think about it, it seem to me that ERG has just basically put itself up for sale PM: Wot, as the only way to get its balance problems solved NH: i have nasty feeling that this might all come to nothing PM: I think that your could well be right PM: So, Anne, we are going to be very cautious on ERG PM: Not trashing the Telegraph piece PM: Just think ERG is rather a long way from a done deal ----- Alphaville - 16/4/07: NH: we had a question earlier about ERG- I can't spell the name of this company so we will use its ticker PM: - or pornounce PM: pronounce, even NH: anyway. this stock is a favourite of the punters and short sellers PM: polarised bulls and bears NH: for those of you who don't know it is a property services company with a market cap of over £250m PM: polar bulls - like that NH: it's been something of an acquisition machine and it has been a target for short sellers since news of accounting problems at a couple of its division surfaced NH: there has also been concerns about the stregnth of its balance sheet and whether the company needs an emergency refinancing PM: Hmmm NH: Anyway, the bears are nursing burnt fingers this morning PM: PM: The company has confirmed reports over the weekend about preliminary takeover approaches NH: private equity house 3i is said to be interested in bidding PM: What have the shares done? NH: stock has motored up 45p, or 21.2%, to 258p as the bears have been forced to buy back their positions PM: Whoa NH: actually not all of them have been buying back. Some are using the spike to sell more. They reckon the takeover approaches are a sign that the company is in real difficulties and that the only way to out is through a bid PM: really - that's a very brave all in this market NH: it is. NH: but they reckon the whole thing does not stack up PM: Go on - what's their argument NH: well, four weeks ago the chairman of ERG attempted to show his confidence in the company by acquiring some stock PM: PM: How many did he buy? NH: 4,000 shares PM: PM: ten grand NH: the point the bears the make is that if ERG was such an obvious target for a private equity group or a rival, surely the chairman would have acquired a lot more stock PM: Also - how does this look, director in the market just before a bid approach NH: well obviously he did not know it was coming NH: but the bears reckon he would have bought more stock if he though the company was massively undervalued PM: Neil, can we just have an off-line discussion on this for a mo PM: Bear with us ... PM: Ok - we've had an off line chat. NH: and we both agree that ERG does not look a classic MBO target NH: too much debt, too many divisions, too many acquisitions PM: So were going to get this out .... ---- I think ERG will be sub two smackers if they can't flog the company. |
Posted at 02/4/2007 18:39 by simon gordon I think there are two strands to ERG right now:- Bear Raid. - Kitching and Dove resigning. The Bear Raid has decimated the share price and could be finally burning out. The serious money has come in and bought equity as the price crashed. So ERG is due a bounce back to support - £2.60+. Though in the medium term they might fall again. The reason being is I think that Kitching and Dove's leaving could possibly bring about a fundamental change in how the Agency division is going to perform. I think Agency is the Achilles Heel of ERG's earnings. They are mainly transcational earnings and totally depend on the Agencys' dealmakers bringing in the business. Another way to think of these dealmakers, are as football strikers. Kitching was a Robbie Keane. There is a 'war for talent' in the Agency world, just like football clubs, everyone wants goal scoring strikers. Well, ERG have been losing their strikers in Manchester and London, and it's not easy to quickly replace a striker who walks out. As the strikers at the other Agencys' are under contract and even if they decide to join ERG they will have to go on gardening leave. So how will ERG replace the lost transcational earnings from the strikers who have left? The creative play makers (wingers: Aaron Lennon) could be dispirited that the strikers have left and may become amenable to be being tapped up? I liken ERG's Agency division to Tottenham Hotspur but if they lose top players they could rapidly turn into Manchester City. I think the one guy who has called the ERG story correctly is Peter Bill, the Editor of Estates Gazette. What he editorialised is coming to pass and if I planned to spend £10m on ERG shares a 50p phone call to him would be a sound investment. ---- EDIT - I am a Leeds United supporter. |
Posted at 15/3/2007 20:59 by simon gordon I find posting helps me clarify my thoughts. I am close to reaching an ERG overdose. I went to the supermarket, collected my food and then realised I had no cash - I'm just in an ERG zone.I did not think I would be getting back into this story after selling in January, but the price has drawn me back. I held post McGarryGate, as I can see the long term business logic of what ERG are doing, and of what they can become. McGarryGate just screwed up the story and has caused me to change my approach and to think more like a trader, rather than as an investor. I think I can become one in the two and ERG is the perfect place to put that into action. After all, all I seek is profit. ERG is still a rich seam that has plenty of gold to be mined. Better to change mining techniques than leave the gold left in the ground. I know the ERG mine well. I have to be aware that a cave in is always a possibility and that the gold could turn out to be fools gold. Here are some more thoughts: Balance Sheet - 12/06: Net Debt -152m Deferred Consideration - 39m Post - 12/06: Letsure - 12m D&H - ? New acquisitions funded: - Bank debt. - Issuing treasury share. - Deferred consideration. Banking facilities - 215m Some deferred has an option to be paid in ERG shares. Commercial Property Services - 2006: Agency turnover (transactional) - c.24.25m EBIT margin - c.40% EBIT profit - c.9.7m *These are rough estimates, once the Numis note is out I will post more approximate details. It is not a huge chunk (50% of the Commercial division) and should reduce as ERG have not bought an Agency since Egan Lawson last August. On the Cantos interview Neil Bellis stated that 85% of budgeted income can been seen at the beginning of 2007. The Agency earnings and Balance Sheet are intertwined as the main risk overshadowing the ERG share price. Savills are bullish for '07 and so is Neil Bellis. We are already at the end of Q1, meaning the Agency earnings do not look overly susceptible. If this turns out to be the case then the balance sheet should be fine. I compare ERG to such Support Services companies as Capita, WS Atkins and Serco. They started small, aggregated and became behemoths. I think ERG can become a behemoth. Although, ERG is being far more aggressive in growing than the three amigos did when they went from Acorns to Oaks. I think the reward for holding the shares outweighs the risks. Just remember the Black Swan. ---------- BLACK SWAN by N. Taleb: A black swan is an outlier, an event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. Most people expect all swans to be white because that's what their experience tells them; a black swan is by definition a surprise. |
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