Enquest Share Discussion Threads

[steve73] 07/3/2019 11:26

But do we actually get any benefits from the 75% of Magnus in the short term?

IIRC, we have to pay down the cost to BP ($200MM) from FCF the 75%, and then after that (est. 2 years) we have to pay them 50% of the FCF (from the 75% share) until they've received $1BN... Which probably takes another 15-20 years or so.

At least this is what my notes from Oct suggest... I could be wrong.

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 11:24

ok thankslets see if the results can start the push to mid 20sbest

[american idiot] 07/3/2019 10:56

Stan, actual, not estimate. (Taken from Feb 5 Operational Update)

At 31 December 2018, net debt including PIK was approximately $1,774 million (After Magnus completion)

I expect similar debt levels in March...maybe a touch lower than the $1,774m (Nice hedges in Q1 offset by lower Brent prices in Jan / Feb on the rest of production, far less production from Kraken offset by the extra 75% of Magnus)

[american idiot] 07/3/2019 10:55

We already know from operational updates what is going to be in ENQs results. We know exact production and debt levels at year end. What is important is the outlook and in particular Kraken.

At 31 December 2017, net debt of $1,989 million.

At 30 June 2018, net debt had reduced to $1,973.4 million

At 31 December 2018, net debt including PIK was approximately $1,774 million (After Magnus completion)

So, purely through production Enq have managed to reduce debt levels in 2018. (Unlike PMO who's debt levels would have actually risen if not for the CB conversion and asset sales in 2018)

2019 production is expected to be 20% higher than 2018 mainly due to the extra 75% of Magnus. Thats a significant increase over 2018.

As always, it all comes down to the price of Brent.

I'm hoping for $70 / barrel, $75 would be excellent.



The main difference between ENQ and PMO is the quality of assets.

ENQ has Kraken, PMO has Catcher. Catcher is pumping at more than twice of Kraken. Catcher has little downtime, Kraken reliability is poor at present.

Then PMO has quality assets like Zama in which they can dispose of (I read somewhere at the time of discovery this was worth 10p + /share alone undeveloped)

Enquest assets mainly consist of more mature fields. Still producing well but who wants to buy an oldie when you can buy something much newer ?

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 10:18

so nobody going to give an estimate for debt repayment?

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 09:16

ok, nothing outrageous in what you say, but you must have an expectation for enq?brent has been fairly good, enq had some good hedges, they dont have anything like the portfolio pmo has - so wrt enq - is debt repayment not the major issue?its no good using all of krakens reserves to pay it off, how much do expect them to have reduced it by?

[american idiot] 07/3/2019 08:41

Stansmith,

What is good about PMOs results ?

Record production on decent Brent prices in 2018 and debt levels would have risen if it weren't for asset disposals and the massive gain they made from diluting shareholders by the convertible bond conversion ?

Just saying....

[dr_smith] 07/3/2019 08:38

Stupmy.
I've asked same in the past with no answer.
I suspect website gets paid by footfall so not motivated to fix and content having irritated users, who, if not so irritated might be more receptive to adverts.

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 08:34

stumpycmon talk to me, im worried...

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 08:24

hi stumpyhope all well

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 08:16

stumpyyou shouldnt filter chris, he is spouting at a level onedeuchebag and master rsi can only dream of

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 08:14

well pmo are doing rather well and their shares are only up a percent or twoenq would do better i think with similar results, but that seems a stretch?i would be surprised to see them reduce the debt by more than 200m, what are your expectations?

[stupmy] 07/3/2019 07:45

Is there a way of not getting email alerts when someone you've filtered posts? I've filtered a few now. I filtered them because I have no interest in what they have to say, but I still get an alert when they post.

[jotoha2] 07/3/2019 07:42

StanS , we will see on the 21st of march who is correct in their opinion , I have followed the Chief Poncho and invested heavily here , bring it on.

[stansmith3] 07/3/2019 07:37

well pmo results are out and good, i cant see enqs being that good - so either way an interesting read across

[chrismultisante] 06/3/2019 19:12

Based on many things.

[stansmith3] 06/3/2019 17:14

funny how onedeuchbag and master rsi can get away with posts like that...more interesting is that brent is nearer to its ceiling - say 80 - this year and enq still under 20the upside seems less and less?i still see no reason to invest here with the likes of hur offering 15% just for an attempted hook upi have heard people saying they are looking forward to enq results, if theyve paid less than 200mn towards debt, id imagine a share price drop will follow

[american idiot] 06/3/2019 16:24

Based on what facts chrismultisante ?

Kraken offloads further apart than ever before since December ?

The pressure this will put on cashflows and servicing debt ?

Last years hedges at higher prices are no more ?

.......

The only way the share price will start to sustainably rise is if Brent starts to move up and beyond $70 / barrel. It could well happen but it definately needs to happen soon.

(and yes I am very much invested here but with eyes wide open)

[chrismultisante] 06/3/2019 15:49

I expect a strong uplift in share price soon.

[steve73] 06/3/2019 15:29

No reason at all why they can't continue production whilst connecting up DC4 flowlines. It was all preplanned, so unlikely to need any hot work on live systems.

That said, as they back-produce any drilling fluids or cutting fines from the new wells, it's highly likely this will screw-up the oil/water separation and cause them to have to cut right back on the existing wells.... perhaps for as long as a couple of weeks until all the new wells are fully "cleaned-up". (This based on my experience bringing new wells into existing production facilities.)

[american idiot] 06/3/2019 15:24

Did notice around the 25th Feb a few extra (than normal) safety vessels around the Kraken field.

Could be something or could be nothing I guess.

Yes, without a doubt we need a full update on Kraken in order to align my investment accordingly.

[lbrokes] 06/3/2019 15:22

He sold us all a pup - he is Mike Stuchberry

[profitaker] 06/3/2019 14:57

AI

I think we'll get a full Kraken update anyway on 21st March. It stands to reason they can't connect DC4 whilst continuing to pump normally. Hopefully they would have made use of the downtime by also carrying out planned maintenance. They are slick operators.

[wallywoo] 06/3/2019 14:47

bgt a few more here today, I guess you risk that this will fall further, but IMO with oil prices in the mid 60's that is unlikely.

Just looks like a sensible consolidation period to me. Especially until they sort out Kraken. Sentiment seems to be rock bottom here, lots of pundits hitting it too.

Time for the contrarian punt! In good company with the amount the CEO bgt all at higher prices than this

[american idiot] 06/3/2019 14:42

Good news Profitaker.

As soon as Enquest are out of their closed period I intend to contact Ian Wood and grill him on what exactly is going on with Kraken.

23 days between offloads is nowhere near good enough but who knows if there are problems or if its down to progress on DC4 or scheduled maintenance ?

If only we knew.