Has the facility been shutdown depressurised and hydrocarbon inventory released in prep for downmanning
Who would set foot on the vessel now |
The point you are missing is that Israel has demonstrated its ability to take out incoming missles and this will obviously include defending its oilfields. Also while Israel can hit targets with pinpoint accuracy the Iranians can’t even if they know where they are. |
Surprised by the resilience here. Reminds me of road-runner running off a cliff, and being OK pedalling the air until he finally looks down.
Israel apparently will target Iran's oil refineries in response to last night's salvo of missiles.
What's good for the goose... |
Hardly a train crash this morning. Holding up well. |
Disaster
What will this open at tomorrow |
Short going badly TBTT ? |
Look at the success of the Ukrainians with sea drones - little more than jet skis with 500kg of explosive attached. They've managed to sink 1/3 of the Black Sea Fleet and drive the rest of its ships out of their part of the Black Sea without actually having any ships.
War has changed. I don't know what will happen, but the gas fields are a vulnerable easy to hit big reward target for Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, Iran is apparently about to launch a salvo of missiles against Israel.
And (as Netanyahu knows full well) America is paralysed, because nobody dares crack heads together until after the election for fear of offending various interest groups. |
Tiger, ref post 244, I think most of the answer is that while Israel has first world armaments, inc precision guidance systems, Hezbollah does not.
Eg today is reported they attempted to hit Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, but ended up injuring a few civilians in a parking lot. (No different really from every other rocket attack since October 7.)
Hezbollah almost certainly don’t know exactly where ENOG drill rigs are. But even if they did, couldn’t hit them. |
Insurance ?
FFS
What about the personnel onboard, are they being evacuated this week ahead of the anticipated events
This is the largest bomb anywhere near the Med |
And now the Israeli invasion of Lebanon begins.
Yep, that'll make all the shorts close in blind panic... |
Despite the rhetoric, the share price will recover strongly & over-leveraged short sellers will face margin calls & be forced to close their positions at a loss. Looking for a strong finish by the weekend. Enjoy the ride TBTT. |
Hezbollah have just tried (and failed) to blow up the FSPO! I gave you the link to a reputable Israeli journalist close to their military.
The odds are they'll try again. And war has changed; naval targets have been exposed as very vulnerable to low tech drone attack. Look at the success the Ukrainians have had with little more than adapted jet-skis loaded with explosive.
As to insurance, I've got no idea if military action is covered. You'd need specialist advice on that. |
Tiger maybe they see it as a target but just as the iranians wont let them use long range missiles i doubt they would let them blow up the FPSO unless of course they wanted to bankrupt themselves by their oil refineries being turned into fireballs. The FPSO is guarded by the Israeli navy and is apparently insured. Good luck with your short though you could be correct. |
Two things:
1. Hezbollah (even in their current state of confusion) have confirmed with facts that they see the gas fields as a target;
2. As Ukraine shows, war has changed, and naval targets are now vulnerable to attacks by swarms of drones. The Russians haven't yet managed to work out a coherent defence against this tactic, as witnessed by their defeat in the Black Sea. |
Tell that to the CFO. |
You do realises the Israelis have just announced there was a drone attack on Karish?!?
This one thwarted. But there will be more. Hezbollah is not exactly short of drones, rockets and missiles!
Share price is crazily high. At the least the field will have to be shut down for safety reasons.
Source for that with video: @ItayBlumental on Twitter. |
Shorts have gone quiet today, wonder why. 🤔 |
Well chutes, it's up 8% in Tel aviv this morning, probably after that report on Israel also destroying their land to sea missile capabilities on Friday, Telegraph yesterday. |
Field will be S/D and downmanned.
Huge fall Monday |
The Shia "front" is hardly likely to give a damn about hurting the economies of Egypt and Jordan!
I'd say on "a maximum effect for minimum effort" basis the gas fields are the best target available to Hezbollah. (That is, once they've gotten over their current confusion caused by the Israeli assassination campaign.)
Interesting to note how extreme Turkey's anti-Israeli rhetoric has become. They're saying stuff you'd expect from Syria or Iran, but not from a member of NATO.
The only "hope" for de-escalation I can see is a bad one - that Iran is in the very last stages of nuclear break-out and doesn't want a fight until it's finished building the bomb.
Anyhow, it's clear the market needs to adjust majorly for these new circumstances. I think down to 600p in a couple of weeks, just to account for the inherent risk. If Hezbollah actually hit the gas fields then obviously lower. |
Although these gas fields including leviathan and Karish are all perilously close to the Lebanon border, there are several countries in the region ie Egypt and Jordan that also rely on these fields for gas supply.
There is a mutual agreement between Israel and Lebanon with regards both benefitting from these fields.
Although the significant risk is there to see, I think it's unlikely that the area will be targeted even by Hezbollah because it would alienate them from other Arab nations, and inflict damage indirectly on the Lebanese too.
Monday will be interesting for sure |
 Yes, I do remember, I was there. And not gibberish.
It took a week for most Russian and Ukrainian shares to crash properly, with some wild swings included (I remember a couple of 50% rallies). All in all, it was obvious that Russia was going to attack Ukraine if you were watching closely (the movements of Putin's personal mega-yacht and the provision of fresh blood supplies to Russian medical units at the front before the attack were absolute giveaways if you know Russia).
So, I imagine it will take a week or two for the full ramifications of Netanyahu's wildly irresponsible actions to be priced in here. It's said that the Iranians have enough bomb-grade uranium to make about 4 nukes by now, so I imagine that we'll soon see Israel warplanes bombing Iran, and maybe a blockade of Hormuz in response.
In short, buy non-Gulf oil stocks, and maybe gold. This will be a major war. And short ENOG. It is hopelessly, pitifully vulnerable. As always, jurisdictional risk trumps all other considerations. |
What gibberish.
Err remember the price of ferrexpo after Russia started that war. |
Heading to £4 |
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
Hot Features
Premium
