MAJOR escalation in Lebanon tonight - full-out war now looks likely. Hezbollah is meant to have something like 120,000 to 150,000 rockets and missiles, so a determined barrage will overwhelm Israel's defences with simple force of numbers.
Market just hasn't priced in this risk properly.
The market was very sluggish in pricing in the risks at the start of the Ukraine conflict as well. Our stock markets twitch on financial news, but seem to take time to properly assess geo-political risk. But they get there in the end. |
If hezbollah HIT THE FSPO, Israel would still have gas from leviathan field but would not be able to export to Egypt, or Lebanon, it's 2 biggest export markets (which it is a significant supplier of). If they wanted Israel with no power, they would go after the power plants but can't because they don't have the ability........ With the war unwinnable in my view, I believe the asset safe & also believe the gas line will be built through Gaza into Egypt, which the company says will increase it's sales capacity & pricing. |
Hezbollah don't benefit but everyone else in Lebanon does, it would be like 5h1tt1ng on your own doorstep. And Karish is probably the most protected infrastructure in Israel.
If all the scaremongering gibberish was true and there was a serious risk, the share price would be much lower than it is. |
It’s very sensitive
Hezbollah will stop at nothing now, they are wounded
Why anyone would go near the asset now is remarkable and this makes them uninvestable now
End of |
Question: do Hezbollah benefit financially (either directly or indirectly) from the Qana gas field?
If it is a source of revenue for them that might restrain them from attacking ENOG's asset, out of fear of retaliation.
If not, then why hold back? It's an easy, undefended target whose destruction would cause immense economic damage to Israel. It would even look spectacular on TV. |
At least one director disagrees & has added 8000 shares. |
It will kick off soon
Not a time to be invested here |
I would think the IRGC should be more worried about the Israelis hitting Kharg and/or Jask |
Lebanon has its Qana offshore gas field operated by Total Energies located adjacent to ENOGs Karish field. Don't think either side will want to create conflict here as there is no upside. |
This is uninvestable
The risk to assets production and people is just too great now
A floating Exocet missile
No one is going near it |
Why not hit the assets out at sea?
You might not even need a missile to do it. Just a few speedboats loaded with explosives. Or even jet skis modified into surface drones; that's how the Ukrainians sank a couple of Russian warships.
How on earth do you defend against that? And, looked at from Hezbollah's POV, it would be a big bang for only a limited buck. |
Haifa used as main change out port
This facility is now at risk |
Not an expert. But IMO, crazy risk level considering how appealing a target for Hezbollah this must be. What defence do the assets have against a missile strike - they must be out of range of Iron Dome etc.? And it looks like the Israeli government are hellbent on starting a major war. |
Total short positions 2.56% |
How on earth is this holding up with a full blown war imminent? |
I am getting worried today with use of ballistic missile that can reach tel aviv
so garish is well within reach. I have cut my stake. Hopefully right decision for the moment based on risk further to todays development |
Looks like it's gotten cheaper will time another top up |
Who are these new shorts appearing from their toilets? |
Taken a nibble |
And here we are at 930p despite Anchois results. |
Added circa 890p. |
Wouldn't bank on it, I've been waiting for it to recover since June x dividend. This is barely above Oct 7th lows. |
Going ex-dividend shortly. I've topped up circa 910p & will take the hit if ENOG share price drops by more than the dividend. Methinks this will quickly go back above 930p before ex-dividend. All imho dyor etc. |
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