Ediston Property Investm... Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 24/2/2022 15:13

AGM results interesting 15% agaunst remuneration package and someone doesn't want Robin Archibald as a director!

[tournesol] 24/2/2022 14:02

Specto

Agree with all that. esp wrt President number 45.

[spectoacc] 24/2/2022 13:13

Agree with all that @tournesol. Meanwhile, we've been welcoming Russian billions and regime Russians with open arms in the UK.. And willingly exporting our industries (and IP) to China over many years.

Biden weak - yes - but Trump an imbecile. The one advantage of Trump was that you didn't know what he might do next.

Putin is de facto threatening us with nuclear Armageddon - the big question is how he feels when Russian soldiers are being killed by West-supplied weapons, and what happens if/when he takes the Baltics, or a part of any other NATO member. Like Eastern Ukraine, some of eg Estonia is rather Russian already.

He's already demanded a NATO rewind to 1997.

Are we ready for war?

[spectoacc] 24/2/2022 12:51

Lol @chucko1.

This too:

"Amazing to think NATO spent 20 years and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan, losing thousands of troops, with zero core interests at stake. And now during the biggest geopolitical crisis in decades, the same governments are essentially watching it on CNN."

[chucko1] 24/2/2022 12:49

I would be happy for them to spend the office money on weapons for Ukraine!!

[spectoacc] 24/2/2022 12:46

Can't say I've bought nothing today, but I do think things are going to get a whole lot worse - this is intractable. Best hope is that Ukraine can bog down Russian forces, but I don't fancy their chances.

Then consider Vladimir's reaction when there's Russians being killed by West-supplied weapons.

And consider not just oil, gas, and inflation, but also all the materials needed for transitioning away from fossil fuels (particularly aluminium), as well as food (particularly wheat, a quarter of the world's exports from Russia/Ukraine).

China's the big winner. Inflation/stagflation what we're going to get, not dissimilar to early 70's IMO.

Ventured off-topic - perhaps retail parks not too bad, if you were going to buy anything, but I still want to see what they spend the office proceeds on :)

[ec2] 24/2/2022 12:42

Looking weak today. Topped up.

[flyer61] 23/2/2022 17:04

Thanks Skyship, bought another 20K of SREI at a little under 52.

[skyship] 23/2/2022 16:26

No - just w/c Monday 28th...

[chucko1] 23/2/2022 14:51

Sky, do we know which day next week for the SREI NAV update? I have not been paying attention.

[skyship] 23/2/2022 13:16

Flyer:

BREI - 87.8p - Disc = 27.4%. Yld = 4.3%

SREI - 51.9p - Disc = 25.2% (on an uprated 69.4p NAV - my guess for next week's stat).
A higher 5.6% yield thx in part to higher LTV & lower debt cost

Both cheap!

[flyer61] 23/2/2022 12:54

Spec and Skyship - all agreed and as always that you for your time and effort. Another Sterling would be good. It is only 45 minutes from Callum's office so it will get close supervision or it should.

Enjoy the income but growth is going to be hard to come by. I note they still hope to raise the dividend.

So, do I top up BREI, SREI or SLI...or is there something else percolating...

[skyship] 23/2/2022 10:37

Flyer - agreed re geographical spread. Zero in the S/SE - just 2% in the SW & 16% in the Midlands; otherwise all in the North. Scotland at 23.4% & Wales at 20.6%.

Surely accounts for the disappointing NAV update.

[spectoacc] 23/2/2022 10:25

Concur @Flyer61 - think the recent NAV announcement demonstrates your last point.

Been about what they do with the cash for me for a while - yes, perhaps they get offered something at a good price. Difficulty is how many others are also looking to latch on to retail parks. I'll reassess when they finally deploy it.

Offices going to take longer to play out than High St retail did IMO. Retail involved huge multi-store insolvencies (too many to mention, but C&A, Burtons, Debehams..). Offices will be still bringing in income on multi-year leases, from tenants who, whilst they may not want the space, are stuck with it and aren't going bust themselves.

But when those leases come up for renewal, it'll either be at way lower rates, or they go elsewhere to a better and smaller space with a nice long rent-free.

A lot of office owners are going to have a lot of CapEx to find for the new EPC rules, & some older stuff (think 60's blocks) just isn't going to be viable. Is it re-developable? Would have to know each individual asset well.

Do wonder if major city centres will be fine - prestige being based there, easy access by train etc.

And some offices will be OK regardless, eg UKCM's last "office" purchase of 22/12 worth a read.

I think EPIC have done the right thing in dumping, but common sense says buy back shares or find another Haddington-style development. They're giving every indication of wanting to over-pay for something IMO.

[flyer61] 23/2/2022 10:13

SpectoAcc

There is no doubt offices are going to be a tricky place going forward. All 3 of my children work from home when they all have offices they could go to. No FD is going to pay for office space they no longer need. It could be brutal for some town centres . Modern and energy efficient will be very important from here on it.

As to EPIC, they now have a lot of cash and they may get lucky with deploying it if as I suspect it 'all kicks off'.

Overall though with a large proportion of the assets in the Socialist Republics of Scotland and Wales it is not going to punch the lights out as these are both low growth jurisdictions.

[hindsight] 23/2/2022 09:58

Also about the site ie Mcks sold one 21% above book to a developer.

[spectoacc] 23/2/2022 06:50

Going to be such a split in the office sector - offices still needed, some will be winners, but won't just be location, will be investment/EPC. Sweated assets are going to be even worse than EPIC's.

What's interesting about EPIC's 4 is how they've had the range - above Book, around Book, way below Book.

Remembering SREI's recent £13m office sale:
"The disposal price represents a 39% premium to the 31 December 2021 independent valuation of £9.35 million"

Not a sector I want too much exposure to all the same.

[nickrl] 22/2/2022 19:14

hindsight indeed and seems more extreme than other REITs have reported at NAV updates. If its more reflective of the market will hurt the likes of RLE, PCA and RGL amongst others but as I previously said feels like a fire sale hopefully because they have an acquisition and need the cash.

[hindsight] 22/2/2022 18:58

Thx rambutan, £37.5m to (£27.5m-3.9%) £26.4m is worse than I had pencilled in for office price falls across reits

[rambutan2] 22/2/2022 17:26

All the pricing history etc can be gleaned from the factsheets here:

htt ps://www.epic-reit.com/literature/ (sorry won't let me hyperlink)

I see that pre covid St Philips Point was priced at £35-£40m, it then reduced to £30-£35m until the last quarter when it was cut to £25-£30m, which is the value it was held at when it first appears - in the 12/2015 factsheet.

[alan pt] 22/2/2022 17:21

If they have a nice big portfolio lined up to acquire and really needed that sale to complete to secure it, then it makes sense, otherwise somewhat disappointing

[nickrl] 22/2/2022 16:11

That is pretty poor to drop that much in six weeks feels like a fire sale to tick the box for the bonus scheme as it wasn't a poor asset.
Also all office income gone leaves a hole in NRI to fund divi and will probably have to eat into reserves to sustain it.