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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Econergy Intl | ECG | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 45.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.00 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 25/6/2008 07:13 by gdp2 Dawnday say with financing ECG are worth 120p. Shame. Suez have snapped up a real bargain imo. Have sold reluctantly as I would have profited heavily if ECG had remained on its own imo. |
Posted at 13/6/2008 20:28 by gdp2 Now thats Interesting - anyone looked at who's advising Suez? Dresdner Kleinwort, ex-brokers to ECG who have continually emphasised that ECG were 'absurdly low' in numerous reports. Think the share price could tick up as again Bereberie may come online before the de-listing |
Posted at 13/6/2008 15:28 by gdp2 'We consider Econergy to be a perfect fit and complementary to our international energy portfolio,' said Jan Flachet, chief executive of Suez Energy Latin America. 'Econergy has and is developing a series of interesting renewable assets, such as wind and small hydro, in markets where Suez Energy already has a presence or aspires to take positions.'- Perfect fit. Glad they're recognising ECG's value with a more realistic bid. I feel for you David77. Would expect this bid to be the last and the take-out offer, but still an interesting comment regarding the loan option Suez may offer to ECG. |
Posted at 11/6/2008 12:39 by david77 I sent this on 20th May:For the attention of Chelsea Hayes (Pelham PR) Good morning My wife and I have over xxxx Econergy shares between us and are disappointed with the current offer for the company. Is it possible to organise a shareholder meeting in London or a conference call where shareholders could ask questions about the company's finances? Just how desperate is the situation? Could the company manage by stopping new investments until those under construction start earning? How soon will some of the projects start earning? I realise that you cannot tell me anything not yet in the public domain. I feel that I understand what Econergy were trying to do but not so sure about trading carbon emissions. I would appreciate any comments that you are able to make. Thanks David S and received on 6th June - just after I had sold :-( Apologies for the delay in my response, as you quite rightly point out, I am unable to say anything that is not in the public domain. I would like to draw your attention to the recent announcements – regarding the posting of the documents, and details of the EGM, along with the statement made by Suez Energy South America. These 2 statements should address your questions. Kind regards Chelsea Hayes My feeling is that Numis are paying more than 30p for ECG shares - why? I reckon that there will be a higher bid before TRE get this on the cheap. I have some spread-bets - one of those expires soon and I wanted to buy the underlying shares into my shares a/c. I didn't want to sell anything else - and I should have rolled over the June shares but I got fed up with waiting for ECG. We are told that investment is transferring gains from the impatient to the patient - good luck to those continuing to hold. |
Posted at 10/6/2008 18:09 by gdp2 Yes it did say November, not sure why so far ahead though.The fact that Suez has displayed their intentions to perhaps bid for ECG has only re-affirmed my opinion that we are being sold short and I'd take the 33p market price now over a TRE merger as I dont think ECG will be able to impress its great value upon TRE due to its size than it could have as a lone entity. Have also seen numerous other opportunities in the market where I believe my money could be better placed, though not to say TRE will not a strong business with ECG under its control |
Posted at 03/6/2008 22:32 by gdp2 Great news, a counterbid is just what ECG needs. Suez will guarantee that negotiations are protracted with TRE etc and in concluding any sale which hopefully will occur after ECG confirms operations at Bereberie and Areia Branca, thus adding value to by reducing investment risk to ECG's business. Good luck to all holders, hold for 50p - 60p! |
Posted at 15/5/2008 19:52 by gdp2 TRE must be giggling.The climate is not strong enough for a share issue IMO. And financing wise ECG had very few other options. Although the offer clearly does undervalue ECG's business the potential finance shortfall makes this the most sensible route. TRE have a NAV of 183p. ECG i'd say, now with the ability to fund the rest of their portfolio together with future income streams starting in 09 of $50million+ could add 40 - 60p to this value in the next 2 years. TRE then worth 220p IMO. So I'm happy that this is the best option for ECG but slightly dismayed at the low price. Will be holding my shares for conversion to TRE. |
Posted at 06/5/2008 12:52 by gdp2 Praipus Yes I have just generalised 1£ = 2$. I have not made any adjustments for oil as I do not believe it impacts ECG's business in any what that could be added to ECG's NAV.Pre-Lims out this morning; My Negatives It does appear financing is becoming a real problem for ECG, the default by Saret on its part of the PEG project appears to have impacted ECG's financial requirements heavily. I would certainly not rule out a fund raising over the next 6 months and I am not quite sure why this isn't already taking place unless the bidders have asked for no extra equity to be issued. Certainly though as a lone entity ECG will require funding soon. Strengthening Real vs Dollar continues to Impact ECG's profitability. Several cost overruns across nearly all projects. El Nino weather impacting Brazilian projects along with unseen geological problems. Financing holding back the rapid development of projects. A small litigation case regarding Pipoca has been brought against ECG and its affiliates, this will however unlikely impact ECG's financial position. Positives Revenues increased by 500 per cent to $25.4m (2006: $5.0m) with 78.4 per cent of revenues derived from power production (Only Corani!) Loss from operations reduced to $0.4m (2006: loss of $9.2m) The "Company remains on track to deliver all 5 projects under construction into operational status by the end of 2008" Which means Corani will generate $23.88m per year (After adding in the missing months of Jan and Feb)or $325'000 per MW, taking these figures and applying it to the 2009 full year figures which will include all under construction projects; 159MW Net = 159 x 325'000 = $51.67m per year in revenue from Power Production. Add to this the revenue from the other areas of the business which accounted for $5.48m of revenue in 07, we have a conservative revenue figure of $57.15m p.a from 09 onwards (Corani is currently being upgraded by 3MW) Takeover News - "Talks regarding these approaches continue and in the case of one party are at a relatively advanced stage" - I assume Tchenquiz, who understands the true value of ECG. He may be able to buy ECG for cheap considering their financing needs and it does appear that the board are highly akin to selling the company to deliver value for shareholders. Cambria expected to enter operations in May. The risk factors across all projects have been severely reduced, therefore any bid should not discount the shares too heavily on the risk for projects since financing, equipment, leases and electricity sale contracts are all already in place. Valuation Update ECG has said that it is selling 27% (Equivalent to 5.4MW) of Areia Branca to FMO, a Dutch Bank, for $4.8m. This suggests a price of $888'000 per MW. Which is equates to $141.28m for all of ECG's assets. =$141.28M 30% tax = $98.89M =£49.44M =£49,440,000 / 87,000,000Shares = 56.82p Per Share NAV Therefore I still believe ECG's is undervalued at these prices and would not like to see a bid below 55p take it off the market, couple this NAV base with the Future revenue Per Annum starting in 09 of $57.15m it is easy to see why. Bear in Mind also that I am not sure how to value the CER's that all ECG's projects will create, but for a small bit of info the PEG project will generate 37'000 CER's annually through 2012, and the EU currently prices them at 16Euros. Therefore 16 x 37'000 = 592'000Euros of extra revenue. Outlook The company has released its 08 objectives, barring a takeover, of securing financing for the company's long term future, bringing all 5 projects under construction online and securing a lower financial gearing across all projects. If these could be fulfilled and a takeover avoided it would be high times for us, with 150p plus not unlikely in 2010. |
Posted at 14/4/2008 08:50 by dewi141 hiFrom the RNS realeased today, it woudl seem that he credit crunch has scuppered ECG's future as an independent entity (RNS says that ECG are looking for a sale or merger of the company). Given my faith in ECG, I am hoping for a merger, as this would allow me to maintain some stake in its future prosperity, and hopefully, any change of ownership will happen at a much higher price than now. In retrospect, the falling share price was showing the way the wind was blowing, and i shoudl have sold out much higher up - cest la vie! cheers |
Posted at 23/2/2008 13:07 by gdp2 bobdouthwaite - 19 Dec'07 - 16:50 - 100 of 108David, I'm still waiting for the certificate for shares I bought six months ago - 'shortage of stock' says the broker. So the recent drop in share price is hard to understand. The shares are called 'residual stock' - but what actually is that Also had this Problem, but I am not looking to sell, purely to get them onto my online account. Re The partner dropping out this presents a great opportunity for Econergy to gain a much larger share of the PEG Project. If Saret default on the loan, which was secured on 6% of the PEG project ECG can take this share which would add 245GWh of generation, adding an estimated $25m to the group's top line and $20m to EBITDA. This share is an unbelievable buy at these prices. Am trying to bring together funds to increase my holding before the 12th of May (Final results out) Other News Due; Early 2008, News of a turbine order for the Mexican Wind projects Eolica Santa Catarina and Loreto Bay is expected to be released. 12 May 2008, Econergy's preliminary's. 4th quarter 2008, Areia Branca expected to enter commercial operations. March 2008, turbine testing at Beberibe. Q2 2008, Beberibe expected to enter commerical operations. Early 2008, bids for the balance of Proyecto Eolico Guanacaste should be awarded. Q1 2008, Cambria is expected to enter commercial operations. Its my thinking that Cambria is already online since the Mwh figures on the website have been accelerating at a rapid pace over the last few days. Dresdner Kleinwort in a research note gave Econergy a 155p price target. "We feel the recent share price move is unwarranted and we retain our buy recommendation on the stock" - 14 Jan 08. "Its historic misclassification as a carbon trader has led to underperformance and presents an attractive entry point" "Econergy would have a portfolio of gross installed capacity of 1.5GW by 2015" - this is 1.6% of Brazil's current total installed capacity or 6.3% of Argentina's. "Potential Exit strategy, Econergy could position its Latin American Assets for sale in 3-4 years.... average acquistion multiples have been around $2.5M per MW, on that basis Econergy could expect to recieve around $1.2 Billion in proceeds from a sale at this time (2011)" Looking at that 1.2$ billion, we can get an idea of potential returns. $2 to £1 = 700million proceeds. 30% Tax = 210million. Net Proceeds = 490million. Assume 40million new shares are issued in the period, this gives us 127million shares. 490'000'000 (Sale proceeds) / 127'000'000 (No.of Shares in Issue, Current 87million) = 3.85 = 385p per share. Current share price = 39p, Potential upside = 887% Another way of valuing ECG is the recent bid for Novera Energy, That Bid values Novera at £111,564,000 3.2x The value of Econergy. Novera was planning to generate 250MW by 2011, Econergy Plans to deliver 207MW by Jan 2010. The results will give us a better idea if ECG can beat this projection, assuming they do, both will have 250MW by 2011. Given comparable market Cap's - ECG 34.8M NVE 111.564M, divide them by 250 (MW) we arrive at a value per MW of ECG - £139,200 NVE - £446,256. A Massive difference of £307,056 Per MW, suggesting ECG is heavily undervalued. |
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