Dyson Share Discussion Threads

[garth] 25/6/2008 09:47

The buy order side is far stronger this morning than on previous days. The sell side is still offering just 1250 shares 250 @ 93.25, 500 @ 94p, 250 @ 94.25p, 250 @ 95p

[mdchand] 25/6/2008 09:34

garth - I bought it when it intraday's around 65p - so showing a nice if rather small profit. I share your optimism if not your conviction that these should be worth £1 to £1.40 - but as a over sold short term trade, it did make a lot of sense.

[garth] 25/6/2008 09:28

Clangor,

Given the kids a bucket each too :0)

G.

[sharw] 25/6/2008 09:22

Market remains illiquid on the buy side - online quotes this morning max 100 shares to buy, 25,000 to sell.

[clangor2] 25/6/2008 08:25

"All IMO. As ever, DYOR. As a holder here (and sometime trader) for the last 7 or 8 years I probably can't be viewed as a neutral observer."

LOL. One would never have guessed Garth ! With the share price having firmed over the past couple of days, I presume you've changed to bailing with a bucket in EACH hand !

Keep up the good work. I would offer to help, but with a bad back etc .....

[garth] 25/6/2008 08:06

Again, to illustrate, 88p paid for a couple of thousand shares at the close on PLUS last night:

24/06/2008 16:27:00 88.00 2,277 O 2,003.76

[garth] 25/6/2008 08:03

Yup - when I wanted more via Barclays I looked at the level 2 quotes and set a limit order with my volume at the entire sell order book at the highest price quoted (a couple of pence difference). Managed to gradually acculumulate. This morning there are 1250 shares on the sell side - 500 available at 89p (2x250) and then 750 at 90p (1x250, 1x500)

A limit order for 1250 @ 90p should secure them.

No level 2 expert though.

But it further ilustrates the tight stock - a buy order for 1250 shares will most likely take the offer up 2p.

G.

[sleveen] 25/6/2008 06:42

TDW wouldn't give me a quote on 1000 shares yesterday.

[garth] 24/6/2008 23:11

md,

When did you first buy/start watching?

Your post hits on just the reason why I believe we are going to see potentially rapid gains in the share price.

I ask when you began to watch because these volumes - and usually considerably less - are the sort that we have become used to over the last few months. Tiny automated trades of 250 shares have consistently taken out the thin order book and driven the price down. I do not believe that we have seen any real depth of market since before we hit 140p on the way down. Just a consistent dribble of small volume sells with no real buying interest and endless falls.

Newton sold a few, Aviva and Artemis added a few.

"the volume of shares today in no way warranted the rise we got which makes me very interested"

My response is that the volume sold on the way down in no way warranted the fall. In that respect, todays volumes actually did warrant the rise (proportionately) and similar volumes are likely to bring similar rises. Who wants to sell their shares valued at 5x profits and 0.5x sales with a 5% divi attached? There is no real stock around. And there hasn't been for much of the last few months. Sometimes you haven't even been able to buy 100 shares!

There has been uncertainty around the stock while Patrick Lammers' review took place. In 36 hours the results of that review are due to be unveiled. The current share price discounts absolute failure as regards Carolite along with a major downturn in the current core business.
But the reality (see a few posts above) is a growing order book in anticipation of new legislation on emissions in the US, a new director appointed to unlock the potential of the surplus property, a number of new products expected to begin to contribute this year and, from the pre-close trading statement:
"Assessment of Carolite(TM) continues and consultants from Philips Technologies have been engaged to assist with this. A prospective customer is also currently undertaking performance tests on Carolite(TM)."

So all in all a little too much negativity surrounding the stock - all given the semblance of reasonableness by a seemingly endless fall of the share price on persistent tiny volumes..... Until this week.....

All IMO. As ever, DYOR. As a holder here (and sometime trader) for the last 7 or 8 years I probably can't be viewed as a neutral observer.

As I posted only yesterday morning:



garth - 23 Jun'08 - 10:25 - 2604 of 2617 edit


Up on the news now and no shares around..... Reckon we could see 85-90p before the results on thursday and expect the results to quickly take us above 100p...

IMO only though.



Well, 2 days of trading later and we are already there. I stand by 100p but my short term target remains 140p. That would put us on just 10x earnings against a chemical sector average of nearer to 16x. I see that as nice and conservative. We are bound to see some caution on 2008-9 and a 10x rating would reflect that. But come 2010 I would expect a rating closer to 16 to 20x and a share price closer to £3. That is more than 3.5x the current share price.

G.

[mdchand] 24/6/2008 21:37

garth - the volume of shares today in no way warranted the rise we got which makes me very interested. could it be that a large shorter is closing his position, or that we have a large buyer in the background or that the mm's are trying to accumulate stock in advance of the interims which will be better than anticipated, or that a bidder is in the background. either way, all arrows seem to point north......

[garth] 24/6/2008 17:14

And another rise at the close....

[garth] 24/6/2008 12:26

Just short of 10K traded on PLUS so far today and 5K on the main market. Up 11% and number 6 on the leaders board....

[shorewalk] 24/6/2008 11:28

missed out when these were 70p years ago after meeting someone who worked for company. Years later he felt at 350p it had got ahead of itself but thought 280p was fair value. He thought carolite didn't even figure in the equation. I managed to buy on recent dip and and doubt we will get that low again. I am pretty convinced that recent option awards to subsidiary directors is a clear indication of a break up with this as a sweetener to keep them on board.There a a number of companies who would fight to get the technology. Fuel costs are the cause of the recent share price drop but with emmission regulations they have much greater opportunity to pass on increases to customers.Just my views though. DYOR :-0

[garth] 24/6/2008 11:07

As we've said before, JMAT, MGCR, PRV would all be possibilities - but I'm sure there would be others. DYS gives exposure to solar technology markets, Fuel Cell Technology, air quality through catalytic converter shileds and diesel particulate filters etc.... With the current market cap at just 5x earnings and less than half of revenues the price would need to be considerably higher though.... Just goes to emphasise how cheap these have got.

G.

[clangor2] 24/6/2008 10:51

Still a long, long way to go before my head's back above the water-line.

[mdchand] 24/6/2008 10:46

Garth, want to share your optimism - lets hope there is a bidder circling in the background as that would be the best short term solution for rerating this share.

[garth] 24/6/2008 09:57

Whhooosh.... :0) Rightly so and just the start, IMO.

There have been no real volumes available since 140p levels..... And 140p equates to an undemanding 10x eps with that US legislation just on the horizon:

"The order book is growing for 2008-09 and 2010, in anticipation of stricter U.S. emissions legislation,"

New director put in place yesterday to help unlock the value in the surplus property portfolio.

Unloved and significantly undervalued in a what has been a weak market for small caps. 2008-09 is bound to contain some challenge, but that will prove temporary, IMO.

DYOR.

G.

[mdchand] 24/6/2008 09:06

and at the start.........

[garth] 23/6/2008 18:37

Rise at the end....

[garth] 23/6/2008 14:03

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The following is a compilation of UK smaller company results due out in the two weeks to July 4.


THURSDAY JUNE 26

The March trading statement from Dyson Group Plc., the materials technology group, disappointed. This indicated that Saffil volumes in the United States remain weak and that year to March 2008's pretax profits are likely to be in the region of 6.5 million pounds, marginally up on the previous year's 6.2 million pounds, but 10 percent below analysts' expectations.

The financial year was boosted by a particularly strong H1 performance, which Jon Lienard of Brewin Dolphin warn is unlikely to be repeated in the near term.

As a result, the analyst downgraded 2008-09 pretax profits by 28 percent to 6.0 million. Medium term prospects, however, are brighter and Saffil remains a market leading product.

The order book is growing for 2008-09 and 2010, in anticipation of stricter U.S. emissions legislation, and Patrick Lammers, the new chief executive, is actively seeking to capitalise on his experience and standing in the automotive industry, Lienard points out.

The conclusions of the strategic review will determine the group's future direction and clarify the medium term outlook.

Lammers is likely to report his findings with the prelims. Lienard expects the prospects for Carolite, the value of surplus land and, perhaps, the group's future structure to be areas of focus.

Meanwhile, a same-again 4.3 pence dividend will be covered by EPS of 14.0 against 12.8.

[mdchand] 23/6/2008 11:11

garth - don't get too excited about the appointment. Yes, it may mean them selling off excess land, doing sale & leaseback of certain assets - but this should have all been done a few years ago when commercial property was a hot potato. Now that the market has sold off substantially and IMO is actually oversold, I would actually be concerned if they did any material transaction now as they would effectively be doing so at the bottom of the market. I suspect that the appointment is perhaps more a sign of weakness (in terms of potentially) needing to raise additional capital, rather than being canny management looking to take advantage of market conditions.

ps I do hold these so am hoping that I am wrong

[garth] 23/6/2008 10:25

Up on the news now and no shares around..... Reckon we could see 85-90p before the results on thursday and expect the results to quickly take us above 100p...

IMO only though.

G.

[clangor2] 23/6/2008 08:06

Keep bailing Garth but I don't think this boat is going to rise out of the water very quickly ! Not long to wait now tho' before we're put out of our misery .....

[garth] 23/6/2008 07:19

Appointment of a new Director, looks like they are getting serious about unlocking their significant property assets in order to clear the debt from the balance sheet:

" In addition to her extensive corporate knowledge and experience, Honor will bring expertise, diversity and value to the Board in relation to the Company's substantial property assets."

As highlighted by WJC, in the current debt market that has to have been a significant drag on the share price. With any luck we should now see the start of further gains, IMO.

G.