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DNA Doric Nimrod Air One Limited

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Doric Nimrod Air One Investors - DNA

Doric Nimrod Air One Investors - DNA

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Doric Nimrod Air One Limited DNA London Ordinary Share
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Posted at 12/1/2017 10:01 by danieldruff2
It may be that they never sell them, just keep leasing for the lifetime of the aircraft, by which point most of us will be old or gone, only pinch point is if major investors request a wind up of these vehicles and there is a forced sale.
Posted at 15/12/2010 13:11 by davydoo
A new thread to follow the performance of a new Special Purpose Vehicle that is planning to buy and lease one Airbus A380 to Emirates Airlines and provide an income and capital gain to investors.

My personal interest is how this company performs in comparison to Avation (AVAP) and Capital Lease Aviation (CLA) which have portfolios of leased aircraft.
Posted at 03/3/2009 15:05 by grupo guitarlumber
Roche Gains as Genentech Talk Eases Price Concerns (Update1)
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By Dermot Doherty

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Roche Holding AG rose the most in almost three months in Zurich trading after analysts said a presentation by Genentech Inc. didn't turn up new evidence that could push the Swiss drugmaker to overpay for its partner.

Roche climbed as much as 7.2 Swiss francs, or 5.8 percent, to 131.3 francs, the biggest gain since Dec. 8. Genentech shares fell 4.6 percent yesterday.

Genentech executives, trying to show Roche should raise its $42.1 billion bid, said yesterday the biotechnology company may begin selling 15 new drugs by 2015 and introduce 24 new uses for existing medicines, including the cancer drug Avastin.

"There were no surprises in Genentech's presentation," said Carri Duncan, an analyst at Sal. Oppenheim in Zurich. "They had the platform and I don't think they impressed."

Roche shares dropped 6.7 percent yesterday on concern about Genentech's presentation.

Duncan and investors say the Swiss drugmaker will need to raise its bid. A shareholder survey by Citigroup Inc. last month found that 92 percent of Genentech holders won't tender their shares at the current price of $86.50. The concern centers around how high Roche may need to go.

"What Roche investors are worried about is if they overpay," said Duncan, who expects a deal at $90 a share or above. Genentech estimates the company is worth at least $112.

Roche last year extended a tender for a fifth time and increased its offer by 19 percent to buy U.S. diagnostics company Ventana Medical Systems Inc. for $3.4 billion.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dermot Doherty in Geneva at Ddoherty9@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 3, 2009 07:26 EST
Posted at 01/2/2009 20:47 by waldron
Why the Drop in Roche's Genentech Bid?
by: Mike Huckman February 01, 2009 | about stocks: DNA / RHHBY.PK
Mike Huckman
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Become a Contributor Submit an Article Font Size: PrintEmail TweetThis Genentech (DNA) shares dropped three percent Friday or $2.85 to $81.24 after Roche showed some chutzpah and lowered its bid for DNA. Recently, there'd been reports that the Swiss drugmaker, which already has a majority stake in the California biotech, was going to raise the offer to around $94. So, it was surprising and, some might say, shocking when Roche (RHHBY.PK) announced Friday morning that it was willing to pay $86.50 a share instead of the original $89.

Late Friday, Genentech put out a press release urging shareholders to tell Roche to take a hike. Dr. Charles Sanders, the chairman of the special committee of the DNA Board of Directors that's been set up to deal with Roche, called Roche's move "unilateral and opportunistic...in an attempt to take advantage of current market conditions."

But in a research note to clients, Bill Tanner at Leerink Swann said investors should take the money. "We believe the shares are fundamentally overvalued." Leerink Swann may trade in DNA.

Other analysts and investors believe Genentech's stock could rally this spring when test results are expected on the cancer drug Avastin as an add-on treatment for colon cancer. If the data are good and the drug gets approved for that use, it could substantially increase Avastin sales. Genentech recently announced that the numbers could be available in April. I'm guessing it'll unveil the so-called topline data at that time and save the details to make a huge splash at this year's American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting.

Geoffrey Meacham at JPMorgan says if that Avastin study goes well that Genentech shares could be worth more than a hundred bucks. "We do not expect the majority of shareholders to participate in this tender offer, where most of the core holders have held the stock for several years and are believers in the adjuvant (add-on Avastin colon cancer treatment) opportunity and the long-term value of the company." JPM has done and wants to do more investment banking for DNA and it makes a market in DNA options, which were apparently active Friday.

And another Geoffrey...Geoffrey Porges at Sanford C. Bernstein writes, "This is clearly another high risk hardball negotiating strategy by Roche. We believe it has a significant risk of failing to impress sufficient Genentech independent shareholders to close the deal." A part of Bernstein owns at least one percent of DNA.
Posted at 23/1/2009 17:22 by waldron
Roche Faces Big Decision On Genentech Bid As Key Data Loom





By Thomas Gryta
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) has consistently reiterated its devotion to buying the 44% of Genentech Inc. (DNA) that it doesn't already own, but the potential early arrival of a key study means the company may have to decide its next step soon.

If the Swiss drugmaker waits for the data regarding Genentech's flagship cancer drug Avastin, possibly coming in mid-April, and the results are considered a success, Roche risks paying significantly more than the already rejected offer of $89 a share. If the study fails, it could pay less. Roche can also decide not to take the gamble, but it needs to move soon to cut a deal with Genentech and get financing amid tight credit markets.

"I honestly think it could be any day now," Robert Baird & Co. analyst Chris Raymond said, referring to his expectations for a higher bid.

If a deal is reached soon, Wall Street generally expects it to be higher than $95 a share. A successful study could drive Genentech's value above $100, excluding any premium from a Roche offer, while its failure may actually bring Roche to lower its rejected offer from July.

Shares of Genentech, recently at $83.94, have traded below the offer price since late September, after hitting a high of $99.14. The drop reflects doubts about Roche's ability to close the deal amid tight credit markets, rather than concerns related to the forthcoming study. Roche shares recently fell 1.22% to $36.30.

Neither Roche nor Genentech would comment on the acquisition offer.

Genentech's next few years will likely be driven by Avastin, which is approved to treat advanced breast, lung and colorectal cancer and had 2008 sales of $2.69 billion.

The drug's future trajectory will be determined by its potential use in the adjuvant setting - when it is administered after cancer is surgically removed.Currently, Avastin is only used on cancer that has spread beyond its original site. Its use as an earlier treatment could add billions of dollars in sales, and the so-called C-08 study will be the first view of the drug's adjuvant use in colorectal cancer.

The trial is being run by a third-party cooperative group and Genentech had expected the data to come in the middle of the year, but earlier this week disclosed it could be as early as mid-April.

Most Wall Street analysts see colorectal adjuvant usage adding at least $1 billion in annual sales. Lazard Capital Markets recently estimated that adjuvant usage in breast, lung and colorectal cancer could ultimately bring more than $9 billion in additional annual sales.

Genentech has acknowledged the importance of Avastin's adjuvant use to the drug's growth over the next three to five years, but also asserts that approval isn't essential.

"I think people get understandably focused or even obsessed by the adjuvant result," said Ian Clark, executive vice president of commercial operations, in an interview last week. "I'm confident that we can continue to grow the business even without a positive adjuvant study."


Back To The Wall

The shorter timeline for the data's release puts Roche in the position of either raising its bid before such monumental data, or waiting to see the results and riding the inevitable shift in the value of the Genentech.

"It's my view that both parties are incentivized to get this thing done before the data comes out," Raymond said.

Roche recently said that the deal is on track, despite the ongoing financial crisis, and that it always expected the process to take a year from the original bid, according to The Wall Street Journal.

But some believe that Roche always intended to close the deal before the announcement of the C-08 results, and now the timing shift has backed it into a corner.

Some speculate that Roche will make a bid before releasing 2008 financial results on Feb. 4.

Besides getting the approval of Genentech's independent board and from shareholders, Roche will have to line up financing amid the financial crisis.

The deal would be huge: The original $44 billion offer goes up $500 million for every dollar added to the original $89-per-share bid. Analysts expect a deal somewhere above $95 per share, and many are aiming closer to $105 a share.

The price to Roche is also higher as the U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Swiss Franc, adding 14% to the original bid in July, when Roche cited the weak dollar as a motivating factor for the deal.


Rolling The Dice

If Roche either can't get the deal done prior to the data, or it decides to take its chances, it is sure to provide a wild ride for Genentech shareholders.

"If data are positive and Roche has not closed the deal, we suspect the price of Genentech will become too expensive for Roche to finance," said Morgan Stanley analyst Steven Harr.

But success is not guaranteed, and negative data will likely have the opposite effect, possibly making Roche's previous $89-a-share offer look too expensive.

"I don't know where Roche would come out in valuing Genentech at that point, but definitely it would be below $89," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Jason Kantor, noting that the original offer won't necessarily be on the negotiating table after the C-08 data because the independent board already rejected it.

Any deal before the data release will likely include a large breakup fee or some other mechanism to avoid a renegotiation after the news comes out.

In the meantime, until the data, most on Wall Street don't expect major changes to Genentech's share price as most investors are well aware of the risks regarding the deal and the study.

"You are kind of crazy to own the stock if you don't think that the data is going to be positive," Kantor said.

-By Thomas Gryta, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2053; thomas.gryta@dowjones.com
Posted at 17/1/2009 11:47 by ariane
J.P.Morgan: Analyse de Roche

16/01/2009 - 11:48 - (Bolsamania) - Roche

Genentech cautious 2009 Guidance should strengthen Roche's negotiation position – ALERT

Yesterday, Genentech provided 2009E earnings guidance significantly below consensus. This should reduce the scope for Genentech's board of Directors to push for a significantly higher bid from Roche than the $89 they have already rejected.

Importantly, the gap from guidance to consensus estimates can be attributed largely to well known headwinds that are already reflected in our current published Roche and Genentech estimates. In our view the shortfall of the guidance compared to consensus does not point to an unexpected deterioration of the Genentech operating performance, but rather to expectations by biotech investors that may have run ahead of themselves (to justify a request for a higher bid from Roche?). Reiterate Overweight rating for Roche.

Genentech reported 4Q'08 results broadly in line with consensus (if retention payment are stripped out) but provided a relatively cautious outlook for 2009, guiding towards a 2009 non-GAAP EPS range of $3.55-3.90, implying y-o-y EPS growth ranging from +4 to +14%.

2009 guidance is in line with our Genentech projections in our published Roche model (2009E: $3.58), but significantly below consensus of $3.92.

It appears that Genentech bulls may not have taken into account several known headwinds affecting Genentech's 2009E bottom line:
(1) lower Rituxan royalties from Roche,
(2) lower Herceptin collaborator sales to Roche,
(3) FX headwinds on the royalty line (rather than the tailwind seen in recent years),
(4) retention payments of $0.11 per share.

Importantly, those headwinds have no effect on our Roche estimates:
Rituxan royalty and Herceptin payments don't affect the Roche consolidated group figures whereas FX effects and retention payment are already reflected in our Roche estimates. (Note, Roche IFRS numbers do not add back either stock option expense or retention payments to earnings, in contrast, Genentech adds back stock options expenses to non-GAAP earnings, but deducts retention payments from non-GAAP estimates, due to their cash nature.)

Potential Raptiva withdrawal is the only new element that may negatively affect Genentech as well as Roche 2009E bottom line, with a potential negative EPS impact of $0.05 for Genentech or 0.3% on Roche EPS. We expect to learn in coming weeks to what extend this risk will materialise, as discussions with regulators about two cases of PML progress.
Posted at 03/12/2008 17:01 by ariane
HEALTH BLOG
WSJ's blog on health and the business of health. Blog Search:
< Problems in Primary Care Drive ER Crowdi[...] -- Previous | SEE ALL POSTS FROM THIS BLOG | December 3, 2008, 10:54 am
Genentech Carries On, as Roche Deal Simmers on Back Burner
Posted by Ron Winslow
Roche's blockbuster bid for the portion of Genentech it doesn't own has stalled amid the credit crisis and stock market plunge, and concern persists over the impact of the proposed transaction on the biotech pioneer's culture and productivity.

Not to worry - at least for now, said Stephen Kelsey, the company's VP for clinical hemotology/oncology. The Health Blog dropped in on the Genentech presentation this morning at Piper Jaffray's annual health care conference in Manhattan where Kelsey said Roche's $44 billion offer hasn't had any discernible effect on employee retention or morale.

People come to Genentech because it's a good place to work and because they believe the work is important, he said. "Until that changes, they'll continue to work there."

A big employee retention program the company announced shortly after the bid may have helped. Kathee Littrell, VP for investor relations, added that business development deals haven't been affected either.

A special committee of Genentech's board rejected Roche's $89-a-share bid in August as substantially under-valuing the company, but opened the door to a higher bid. With the company's shares currently trading at around $73, the market seems to be saying there won't be a deal anytime soon. Neither Kelsey nor Littrell had any comment on the status of the proposed transaction itself.

Perhaps more pressing is how biotech-friendly, or not, the incoming Obama adminstration and a heavily Democratic Congress will prove to be.

One worry, Kelsey said, is the details of expected legislation to pave the way for approval of generic biotech drugs - the industry likes to call them follow-on biologics. (We still call them generics.) Genentech, like its biotech brethren believes companies companies wanting to bring, say, a Herceptin knockoff to market should be required to prove its similarity to the real McCoy with data from a substantial clinical trial-not just a relatively simple lab analysis that is required to get conventional generics to the market.

High on the list of other concerns, Kelsey said, are the potential that medicare would be allowed to negotiate prices with drugmakers and whether NICE in the U.K. becomes a model for assessing value of drugs in the U.S.

Photo: Associated Press
Posted at 15/5/2008 07:31 by grupo guitarlumber
Global market expected to drive cancer drug growth




WASHINGTON (AP) - The global market for cancer drugs will grow twice as fast
as that for all other pharmaceuticals as the developing world spends more on
health care, a new report says.
China, Brazil, Russia and other emerging countries are becoming bigger
customers for pharmaceuticals as they invest more in treating and diagnosing
cancer, according to a report issued Thursday by IMS Health.
The health care research firm expects pharmaceutical spending in countries
such as India, Mexico and Turkey to grow by 12 to 13 percent over the next 15
years, compared with single-digit growth for more developed nations.
Cancer drug spending is expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent annually
through 2012 to $75 to 80 billion, according the report. The overall drug market
is expected to grow at 6.4 percent.
Feeding that demand are the multibillion-dollar research and development
budgets of firms like Genentech Inc., Amgen Inc. and Novartis AG.
"Oncology is the top of the bill when it comes to new products in
development," said Titus Pattel, a vice president with IMS. "Oncology R&D dwarfs
all other research efforts within these organizations."
Cancer drug sales are expected to reach $48 billion this year, led by
Genentech's breast cancer drug Herceptin, Novartis' leukemia drug Gleevec and
other blockbusters.
But the market is not immune to a slowdown. Expiring patents on older cancer
drugs and efforts to tighten health care spending could limit future growth,
according to IMS.
Some European countries have begun paying drug companies based on how
successfully their drugs treat patients. The Italian government, for example,
only began reimbursing Johnson & Johnson for the cancer treatment Velcade after
the drug demonstrated positive results in patients. IMS said that the adoption
of similar policies in the U.S. it could slow spending on cancer medications.
Pharmaceutical firms also face a tougher regulatory environment in the U.S.,
where the Food and Drug Administration has delayed several highly anticipated
cancer therapies.
Last year, the agency denied approval of Dendreon's prostate cancer vaccine
Provenge, despite an overwhelmingly positive review by the agency's outside
advisers.
"There's a tendency from the FDA to be more conservative than they have over
the last 10 years," Pattel said.
An aggressive review environment could dampen the market for between 25 and
30 new anticancer drugs currently in development, the IMS report says. At the
same time, some of the biggest blockbuster cancer drugs of the last decade will
lose their patent protection, including Sanofi-Aventis' Taxotere and AstraZeneca
PLC's Arimidex.
Expiring drug patents and an increasingly crowded market for cancer
therapies will lower spending in the U.S. and Europe. These markets are expected
to account for 65 percent of the global cancer drugs market by 2012, down from
71 percent last year, according to IMS.
The company's forecast comes ahead of the American Society of Clinical
Oncology's annual meeting, which begins May 30. Abstracts for company studies
will be released online Thursday night, giving researchers and investors a
preview of clinical results for experimental drugs.
Posted at 16/10/2007 06:51 by waldron
Genentech 3Q profit increases 21 percent




SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Genentech Inc. barely beat Wall Street estimates
for the third quarter, and many analysts are skeptical that world's
second-largest biotech company can maintain its scorching momentum amid new
competition and a saturated market.
Genentech reported Monday that net profit in the three months ended Sept. 30
was $685 million, or 64 cents per share, up 21 percent from $568 million, or 53
cents per share, in the same period a year ago.
Revenue was $2.91 billion, up 22 percent from $2.38 billion in the third
quarter last year.
Not counting expenses, including those related to the $919 million buyout of
biotechnology company Tanox Inc. last quarter, the company earned $778 million,
or 73 cents per share, up 22 percent from a year ago.
On that basis, which does not comply with generally accepted accounting
principles, analysts expected Genentech to earn 72 cents per share on revenue of
$2.93 billion.
Executives at the South San Francisco-based company said in a conference
call Monday they were particularly happy about their $597 million in
third-quarter sales of Avastin, which treats lung, breast and colon cancer.
That's 37 percent more than in the year-ago quarter and several million dollars
more than analysts had expected.
Genentech's partner on Avastin, Swiss health care giant Roche, received
European approval for the drug as a treatment for certain forms of lung cancer.
Genentech is seeking approval from the Food and Drug Administration to use
Avastin as a treatment for metastatic breast cancer, or breast cancer that has
spread to other parts of the body.
Genentech is also running tests to determine whether Avastin, also known as
bevacizumab, is effective in "adjuvant therapy," the attempt to prevent the
recurrence of a cancer after a tumor is surgically removed.
But biotechnology analysts say such new uses are incremental and Avastin may
have already saturated its primary market.
"The double-edge sword of oncology is you get rapid adoption, but you tend
to reach full saturation quickly," said Lehman Brothers equity analyst Jim
Birchenough. He is forecasting net income growth of around 10 percent per year
for several years -- far lower than the 20 percent or more that many investors
are hoping for, based on the company's relatively lofty stock price-to-earnings
ratio.
Avastin -- which the FDA approved in February 2004 as the first drug to
thwart new blood vessels from developing and carrying nutrients to a tumor -- is
facing more competition.
Britain's GlaxoSmithKline PLC announced in March that its Tykerb was
approved for treatment of patients with advanced or metastatic breast cancer who
have received prior therapy. New York-based ImClone Systems Inc.'s Erbitux was
also approved in 2004 to treat advanced colorectal cancer that has spread to
other parts of the body.
Analyst Eric Schmidt said Genentech is relying too heavily on Avastin, the
company's only drug with a year-over-year growth rate of at least 30 percent.
Total U.S. product sales were $2.16 billion, up 18 percent from the third
quarter last year.
"Avastin had good growth, but the others have hit a wall," said Schmidt, who
works for equity research firm Cowen & Co. "The hope is that Avastin can lead
the charge, but that's dependent on whether Avastin works in adjuvant therapy."
Genentech's second biggest source of revenue, Rituxan, approved to treat
rheumatoid arthritis and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, brought in $572 million last
quarter. That's up 12 percent from than a year ago.
Sales of its breast cancer drug Herceptin rose 6 percent to $320 million.
Genentech's macular degeneration drug Lucentis, approved in June 2006, had
sales of $198 million, a 29 percent jump. Lucentis is designed to inhibit the
formation and leakage of new blood vessels in the back of the eye, the primary
cause of central vision loss.
Sales of asthma drug Xolair increased 13 percent to $121 million. Xolair is
designed to control asthma triggered by year-round allergens, and executives are
bullish that the drug will soon be used to treat the growing incidence of
pediatric asthma.
Genentech spent $578 million on research and development, up 38 percent from
the third quarter of last year.
The company reaffirmed its outlook for full-year profit between $2.85 and
$2.95 per share, excluding charges. Wall Street analysts were predicting
earnings of $2.95 per share.
Shares of Genentech gained 25 cents to $77.50 before the results were
released at the end of regular trading. Genentech shares lost 70 cents
after-hours.
Sales leader Amgen Inc.'s shares fell 50 cents to $57.67 for a market
capitalization of $62.7 billion. In after-hours trading, Thousand Oaks-based
Amgen regained 50 cents.
Genentech is the biggest biotechnology company based on market
capitalization, valued at $81.6 billion. It has a price-to-earnings ratio -- a
common measure of Wall Street's bullishness for a stock -- of 31.8.
By contrast, Amgen's ratio is 16.6.
Posted at 11/1/2007 06:30 by waldron
Biotech group's profits up 75%
By Rebecca Knight in Boston

Published: January 11 2007 02:00 | Last updated: January 11 2007 02:00

Genentech yesterday said its fourth-quarter profits rose 75 per cent, driven by the successful introduction of its new eye-loss treatment and strong demand for its cancer drug.

The San Francisco-based company, which is the second-largest biotechnology company by sales after Amgen, said its net income increased to $594m, or 56 cents a share, from $339.2m, or 31 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose 43 per cent to $2.71bn, beating analysts' average estimate of $2.5bn.

Geoffrey Meacham, JPMorgan's US biotechnology analyst, said in a brief note that, "as expected", Genentech posted "strong top andbottom-line performance" on the strength of two key drugs, Avastin and Lucentis.

Lucentis, which is co-marketed internationally with Novartis of Switzerland, is Genentech's newest drug, approved and launched last June.

US sales of Lucentis, a treatment for leaking blood vessels in the eye that can cause blindness, were $217m in the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $159m.

Mr Meacham raised his outlook for 2006, 2007 and 2008 sales of the drug.

US sales of Avastin, the colon cancer drug, rose 36 per cent to $490m. Avastin, the company's fastest-growing product since its approval in 2004, won US approval last October as a lung cancer treatment. The solid growth of Genentech's other cancer drugs - Rituxan and Herceptin - also helped boost performance.

In a research note, Steven Harr, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said the results were strong across the board. "Most importantly, demand for Avastin, which is the major source of investor dispersion, grew . . . We expect the Street will like these numbers."

Arthur Levinson, chairman and chief executive officer, said he was pleased with the company's pipeline and that he planned to "continue to focus on R&D projects".

Shares of Genentech, majority-owned by Swiss drug-maker Roche Holding, dropped 97 cents to $83.72 yesterday but were up in after-hours trading. The company reported results after markets closed.

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