Domino's Pizza Share Discussion Threads

[techmark] 25/7/2007 08:54

trt,

How can you have any credibility, clearly all you posts before the results where a blatant attempt to try and ramp the price at the expenses of others.

[trt] 25/7/2007 08:30

Still here but shorting now to £2.40ish then going long again !!!

[hybrasil] 25/7/2007 08:27

TRT
You have gone very quiet all of a sudden.

[hybrasil] 25/7/2007 08:27

TRT
You have gone very quiet all of a sudden.

[stevepaulcarr] 24/7/2007 15:36

hybrasil.

I have recently added to my holding of Dignity (DTY) shares, just before they bounced off their 200 day ma. I like the fact they are quite a defensive stock, very cash generative, the only listed funeral related stock (as far as I know), reasonably priced (though maybe not exactly cheap) and one of those 'boring' growth stories.

As for potential increasing of holdings in other stocks I own, top of the list is Dawnay, Day Carpathian (DDC) (great dividend payer, very cheap on potential future earnings, recent director purchase, albeit only £13k). Also considering more in Anglo Irish Bank (ANGL) although I may wait for this to settle down somewhat. Both these shares have been hit by the recent property downturn fears, so may be worth waiting in the wings further. Stanley Gibbons (SGI) is another share that's done me proud, and any weakness in this, may well tempt me (PEG of 0.7 for this year's forecasts and 0.4 for next year's. Also a niche company with plenty of room for growth still).

[hybrasil] 24/7/2007 11:17

stevepaulcarr.
What other shares are you looking at?

[theeagle2] 24/7/2007 10:29

stevepaulcarr
Agree with your thoughts on DOM. I've been here since old £1.92.

[stevepaulcarr] 24/7/2007 09:51

For me, this is one of those situations where I don't want to buy any more shares in DOM as I too think they are expensive, but I don't want to sell as it is such a great company (great accounts, directors, prospects, charts) who continue to exceed expectations and most likely will carry on doing so.

I think that the belief the shares will continue to rise even though the shares are potentially expensive is as eqaully valid as the possibility that they may fall because they are possibly over priced - by which I mean that I believe that buying at these levels is as equally risky as shorting whilst the momentum is so good. This is why I am holding for the time being (i.e. not increasing my holdings or selling out - yet!).

I've held since 2001, and this is the first year that the rating for DOM has been so high. With growth shares such as this, I tend to place a fair amount of importance on the PEG ratio, which, at the moment, is just below 2 for this years forecast, indicating that DOM is indeed a tad pricey. That's not to say the price will not rise - the charts indicate the bull phase will continue for some time. However, we could now see a drifting in the price for a while, whilst this share catches breath and evens itself out over the next six months or so. This is why I continue to hold, as I think this is the most likely scenario.

I personally don't want to expose myself (oo-err missus) any further to DOM when there are other, better value companies out there to put my money into.

However, I must say that shorting this stock is as equally risky. Unfortunately, being fearful when everyone is greedy and be greedy when everyone else is fearful, has worked for me when taking some profits or bagging bargains, but usually takes some time before you're proved right either way. Shorting stocks that look like they should fall, but have such momentum, has rarely, if ever, worked for me when dealing with quality companies like DOM.

Short term trades, you go with the flow - long term, watch out for those potential pitfalls very closely.

[techmark] 23/7/2007 22:26

Trt,

That's rich coming from you. You post practically the same nonsense everyday.It's the greater fool theory. You are simply hoping that there are even bigger fools out there who will pay more for the stock.

[trt] 23/7/2007 20:44

You have kept on about the rating ever since £2.60ish and look where we are now. Investors will pay for growth there is no doubt, look at all the trades after 15.30hrs for evidence.

Anyway tomorrow is another day lets see what happens.

[techmark] 23/7/2007 18:48

Soulman08,

I don't have problem with the company or business. It's a great business and I invested in it a couple of years ago to great effect. The problem however is the rating that the market is now attaching to the shares. It is in my opinion very high and the bar is continually being raised with relation to expectations. At some point I suspect there will be a disappointment, for instance, say 12% growth instead of 20%, ordinarily not a bad achievement but when you are on 36 times earnings it's not enough. The market being as fickle as it is will quickly unwind any such premium under these circumstances and that is why there could be a 30-50% fall in the share price. At 300p the risks are very much greater on the downside than the upside in my opinion.

Regards.

[soulman08] 23/7/2007 17:41

Alot of the people who waited for the results before selling have done so today, which is very good. The price had a good day, with press coverage and a better insight into the company which go forward to the next level which is i feel 3.15 - 3.20 range.
Techmark i do understand what you are trying to base your short on, you have your view and i have mine, but you must agree the results were v.good indeed and barring a market crash this is on the way up, punters who shorted this are mostly out (i dont think there are many anyway).

[techmark] 23/7/2007 15:37

Because it's overvalued that's why. Nobody can finesse their trades perfectly and anybody who tells you they can is lying. If the shares get fluffed up some more tomorrow on the back of media hype, then I will sell another batch short, and then I'm done and it's just a case of waiting for reality to dawn. I expect to see the directors taking the opportunity to sell at these prices.

"Be fearful when everyone is greedy and be greedy when everyone else is fearful"

Regards.

[trt] 23/7/2007 15:30

But why did you short at £2.90 it was quite obvious the results were too good for the price to drop ?

I have said before PE ratios are a waste of time just go with the market flow !!

[techmark] 23/7/2007 15:13

trt,

Do you like making yourself look stupid?

You topped up this morning, then had targets of 330-350p, then at 300p you thought it was a short, now the shorters are getting squeezed. It's laughable and sad at the time.

Regards

[trt] 23/7/2007 15:09

Shorters getting squeezed !!!

[trt] 23/7/2007 14:36

My trading costs are minimal due to the fact I trade at least 35 times a month, so I get special prices.

[techmark] 23/7/2007 14:33

Trading costs??????????

Spread ????????

Stamp Duty ?????????

[trt] 23/7/2007 14:32

Whats stopping me going long today and benefitting from a 6.5% gain which I have done and then going short tomorrow if I think short term its worth it ???

Yes this will reach £3.35 - £3.50 but not tomorrow !!

[trt] 23/7/2007 14:25

No, its just that the market reaction to the results is exactly what I expected it to do, however I do concede it might be worth shorting at £3.00 in the short term if the price doesn't hold at £3.00 or above by the close - 16.30hrs

[techmark] 23/7/2007 14:22

Those sort of comment just show what type of person you are. It's not painful, it only moved a few pennies. Those sort of moves may be painful for you with all you top ups and trading costs but not for me. I'm here for the long term not 1 day. Carry on ramping now, which is illegal by the way.

Oh by the way what happened to the special dividened and the move to the FTSE 350? More trt ramping BS.

Regards

[trt] 23/7/2007 14:18

How are you feeling now techmark - painful isn't it.

I suggest you open another short at £3.00 short term you may have a good chance of making money

[trt] 23/7/2007 14:08

Well DOM currently has approx £9m in the bank at this half year stage so that pays for the expansion at Penrith which is £4m. Second half will bring another huge amount of excess cash - Remember DOM is a highly cash generative business.
Much of the following years expenditure will again come from increased profits etc.I am sure a certain amount of moey will be borrowed as it is most years, but it just goes to show how the board are so confident of the future.

lets not forget that the takeaway delivery business will be worth £1.9bn come 2009 !!!

In fact I have always thought a highly cash generative business as DOM is, will one day attract a Private Equity company - they just love cash generative businesses !!!