Diamondcorp Share Discussion Threads

[tiger60] 03/10/2015 15:40

Look at northland capital's latest report. Whilst upgrading its sp, it mentions some interesting assumptions.
they mention an upgrade of estimated output for 2017 and 2018, but a reduction for 2015 (understandable as pdn delayed to later in the year than first predicted) and 2016! That the fractured ground will persist throughout the next year. I assumed it was localised issue that once addressed was no longer an ongoing concern.

Also the grade estimate being lowered baffles me. Management have stated that if anything this should go higher and yet Northland have talked to DCP direct and lowered their predicted grades.

Confusing, and at a time diamond prices and financing issues for polishing has hit the diamond market.

And all those saying the fundamentals are the same...you are mad. The world economy has changed, the market for diamonds has changed, along with the price, and access to finance for miners is still penal. If you are saying it doesnt matter if we are 3/4 months late you are equally mad. Cash burn is critical and with costs rising we need to generate a positive revenue stream asap. We do not want another placing.

I am expecting an update soon and definitely prior to end of october. I hope Northland havent been given an inside track to soften expectations and that their note only reflects their own very conservative view of production and grades. I would prefer hearing DCPs view, maybe time for a new presentation!



Good luck all.

[ged5] 03/10/2015 15:31

Double post

[ged5] 03/10/2015 15:31

DiamondCorp (LON:DCP) – BUY*: NCP update note
Market Cap: £35m; Current Price: 9.1p; Target Price: 18.7p (from 16.4)
Markedly undervalued compared to peer group

Forecasts upgraded, BUY rating Maintained and price target increased to 18.7p from 16.4p.

NORTHLAND CAPITAL PARTNERS VIEW: We have updated our forecasts following DiamondCorp’s interim results (01/09/15) also taking into account the delays to tunnel development due to fractured ground conditions. As a result, we have lowered our run of mine (ROM) production volume forecast for FY15 by 66% to c. 50,000t. We have also lowered our grade forecast from 45cpht to 43cpht and therefore our ROM carat production forecast has been lowered by 68% to c. 20,000cts for 2015. We assume the fractured ground conditions continue into 2016 and have lowered our tonnage forecasts for the year by 13% to c. 310,000t. We also lower the grade forecast to 47cpht from 50cpht, reducing forecast carat production by 20% to c. 135,000cts during 2016. ROM carat production levels for 2017 remain in line with our forecasts but we have increased 2018 and 2019 forecasts by 40% and 10% respectively following guidance from management. Other significant developments include the Company’s plans to recommence the treatment of 80,000t of tailings per annum. This is expected to yield c. 5,000cts per annum at a value of US$63/ct. The tailings will be blended and processed with the ROM ore to reduce water consumption, as the preservation of water resources will be important at Lace. While the near-term changes to our production forecast are largely negative the depreciation of the Rand against other currencies increases margins and has a significant positive effect on our valuation that increases to 18.7p from 16.4p

[ged5] 03/10/2015 15:27

Diamondcorp Plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:DCP has had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ today by analysts at Northland Capital. Diamondcorp Plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within AIM. Northland Capital have set their target price at 18.7 GBX on its stock. This indicates the analyst now believes there is a potential upside of 104.8% from today’s opening price of 9.13 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 1.685 points and decreased 2.045 points respectively.

Diamondcorp Plc LON:DCP has a 50 day moving average of 10.47 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 9.69 GBX. The 1 year high for the stock price is 13.38 GBX while the 52 week low is 6.13 GBX. There are currently 296,510,500 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 745,715. Market capitalisation for LON:DCP is £33,992,337 GBP.

DiamondCorp Plc is a United Kingdom-based focused on the re-development of the Lace Mine located 200km southwest of Johannesburg in the Free State Province of South Africa. The Company is developing the Lace underground mine to access the kimberlite pipe known to extend to depths below 850m. The project comprises the Lace kimberlite which has the potential to support a 25-year underground mining operation and tailings from previous mining operations.

[ged5] 03/10/2015 15:14

I've not seen any broker forecasts recently. There are 2 presentations on the website.

First from 29th September:-



Then this from yesterday:-

[tiger60] 02/10/2015 19:01

Why are northland capital lowering their grade forecast for 2016 and 2017. This contradicts management message and yet they say they have talked to dcp but upgrading their pdn rates for 2018 and 19. Sounds like more long dated promises to offset short term issues. The indication the fractured ground will also impact 2016 production is also news to me

We need clarity

[tiger60] 29/9/2015 19:20

Well i mentioned it would be a long month and it would be a matter of DCP versus the market. Unfortunately the market is winning.

It is a shame there are no further director buys, news on the conveyor belt which must be completed by now or a firmer production date.

[ged5] 21/9/2015 12:05

Late reported trade of 500K from Friday evening just shown. There was a little flurry of buying towards the close. Looks like folks have started taking positions before the October sale.

There's been a few big sales recently for other companies. Let's hope we continue the trend.

[iicb] 09/9/2015 16:16

share price gone a bit poor of late, come on PL, get this show on the road! Unconvinced how the oct sales will go after reading that recent article. then again, a few type iia and some nice coloured onesm and we could see good sales.

[ged5] 08/9/2015 11:59

Thanks rhowen.

Was a two way exchange discussed and was there anything else of interest?

I note a number of larger delayed trades are now being reported. 450K so far. I presume they're all buys.

[tiger60] 07/9/2015 16:20

Ok, after the recent open offer here it would be inconceivable that they would leave AIM.

The drop today was prior to this news anyway but it is going to be a long month.

[iicb] 07/9/2015 14:59

tiger - i read that also. was a little concerning admittedly.

[rhowen] 07/9/2015 13:45

There is no plan to move from AIM. You are referring to a way to make it easier for people to buy shares in the Johanasberg market which has very little liquidity. I went to the Dcp agm and when there is a demand for shares in SA shares are transferred from AIM and because of SA currency regulations cannot go back. They are merely trying to make it easier/cheaper to buy in JBerg.

[tiger60] 07/9/2015 11:40

Anyone got info on transfer of shares off Aim to Jse. Would be nice to have it on their own website

[tiger60] 06/9/2015 13:11

Did you read the interims? There will be no news until October at which point the resource update will be published and we should get notification of the conveyor belt completion. But the resource update better be good as it needs to offset the below;

'At de beers july auction of rough stones two thirds of the merchandise was rejected. It was the worst auction since 2008. Last months auction was better but only after it cut prices by about 10%'

As i said DCP need to help themselves. This mkt as we know is cyclical but in the here and now we need company news to outweigh macro pricing impacts.

[iicb] 03/9/2015 20:34

sell slowly moving up again thankfully. wonder how much longer we have to wait, been a month now.

[adorling] 01/9/2015 19:56

I expected worse news so pleased with the update. May top up if it stays at these levels as October is but weeks away.

[hpcg] 01/9/2015 19:38

Also at last seeing costs come down, or confirmed as coming down. Given ZAR and oil have been in the doghouse this should have been the case. Auction date helpful too.

[tiger60] 01/9/2015 18:55

I thought it was good news that they reconfirmed production this year.

[tiger60] 27/8/2015 22:36

It's not Twitter

[iicb] 27/8/2015 17:26

By end of year 2015

[tiger60] 25/8/2015 18:47

What is your insight into the company? When do you think production will start?

[iicb] 25/8/2015 17:19

not really - you keep talking the company down.

[tiger60] 21/8/2015 20:59

When have i ever said sell? In fact i have called it right. Please let me know what exactly your point is? Or as i suspect you are annoyed at the price drop and aim your pointless deliberations in the wrong direction.

[iicb] 21/8/2015 18:18

SELL DCP, SAVE YOURSELVES!!! (Well, according to tiger60/trader123!)