Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[nurdin] 18/4/2017 13:40

Yes results probably at the end of June.Can companies really hold back results for that long? Thats Aim for you I guess.

Thanks for that Riv.

[rivaldo] 18/4/2017 09:50

FYI here's Optiva's update from last week - they have a 32p target and have DKL on a current year P/E of just 4.5:

"The Ayenouan project is proving to be a cash cow

Ticker: DKL LN
Mkt Cap: £38.5m
Shares Out: 296m

Q1 Production Update:

DekelOil (“Company̶1;) has reported record production and material sales growth in Q1 2017.

Total revenue in Q1 2017 was significantly higher by 37% at €9.7m, when compared to Q1 2016 and beat Optiva’s estimates of €9.1m. Record quarterly CPO production at 16,398 tonnes, which is 8.3% higher when compared to Q1 2016 and surpassed Optiva’s estimates of 14,335 tonnes. PKO production was reported at 996 tonnes, which was flat when compared to Q1 2016, however the average PKO sales price was 35% higher at $1,008 per tonne. The management believe they are set to move forward with the expansion phase.

Strong revenue has been predominantly driven by higher palm oil prices and to some extent the optimisation of their ground operations. CPO prices have surged significantly since June 2016 where it was trading around $550m/t, but moved higher and recently traded around $750m/t back in February 2017. We maintain our bullish stance on palm oil prices in the short term on the back of tight supply, weaker ringgit and higher biodiesel mandates. The management has done extremely well to optimise operations by boosting the extraction rates of CPO and PKO. The acquisition of an Empty Fruit Press (‘EFP’), which became operational in March 2017 could boost underlying profits by at least €500k in in first full year of operation.

The financial year-end results for 2016 are expected to be announced over the next 8 weeks and we estimate total revenues of around €26m, EBIT of €4.8m and underlying profits of €3.7m. In 2017, we forecast total revenues of €32m, EBIT of 11m, and underlying profits of around €10m. The management’s recent announcement of a progressive dividend policy and a maiden dividend of £500,000 will put the Company on a dividend yield of around 1.4% based on the current share price.

Based on our 2017 forecasts, Dekeloil trades on a P/E of 4.5x, compared to London peers trading on an average of 17x. In our view, this is unjustified based on how much the Company has advanced from a palm oil developer to a sustainable profitable producer. DekelOil presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking a balance of capital and income growth. We maintain our price target of 32 pence per share."

[empirestate] 17/4/2017 16:47

Should see finals in next two weeks. It did appear that there was no seller weight on the share price on Thursday as the share price was allowed to drift higher from the early discount, on relatively small volume buy side. The chart is certainly in break out territory so hopefully we should improve from here.

[nurdin] 17/4/2017 09:40

Room for improvement? Must be the understatement of the year lol.

[rivaldo] 17/4/2017 08:15

Good to see Friday's closing highs.

And DKL has been given a push over the weekend by Malcolm Stacey as an "ethical palm oil company", concluding:



"Palm oil prices have risen during February and March. In a trading statement this week, Dekel confirmed that production was up on last year. The news has already kicked the share price upwards, but there is still room for improvement".

[here and there] 16/4/2017 11:04

rea was tipped by simon cawkill…hence the rise on low volumes.

The seller was cleared out at the end of last week, unless another one tips up, this should move on steadily.

In a recent podcast Lincoln Moore indicated that they were ahead of forecasts which had the company operating on a PE of 6 for this year. Contemporaries operate on valuations 3 times this level.DKL could well be on a PE better than 5 this year. Those Q1 numbers smashed all forecasts

[empirestate] 13/4/2017 16:42

The close of higher high is a decent signal. Did anyone notice today the share price gain of REA holdings epic RE., looks like cpo producers are in vogue.

[empirestate] 13/4/2017 14:23

took another 40k at 13.9, looking promising again

[chadders] 13/4/2017 14:06

Empirestate, agreed hopefully the seller will clearr soon.

I recall getting into SPE when all the signals were there alongside broker upgrades, share tips the lot but it bumped along for ages then suddenly went gang busters

Hoping for the same again here.

[empirestate] 13/4/2017 13:47

surprising move back up on the share price considering very few volume buys, looks like a decent sign, as have said a few times before, but this one looks a little different.

[empirestate] 13/4/2017 12:55

Nurdin, you will be fine, patience will be rewarded.
Chadders, it hasn't helped that the company were giving shares to advisors and also purchased FBB by giving shares to the seller of the FBB. I presume this has been the reason for the constant drip feed of sell side shares.

It will finish soon considering the recent buy side volumes soaking up the stock so shouldn't be too long before a re-rate to high teens or early 20's.

[chadders] 13/4/2017 12:00

Added a few more. This is a very compelling case and to be honest I'm at a loss as to why this isn't flying (a background seller but why?). Fantastic Q1 production update and year end results due with a promised maiden dividend. Can't be under the radar because it's being tipped by every man and his dog! Brokers all targeted between 23p and 32p. Methinks it will wake up soon.

[nurdin] 13/4/2017 11:29

My timing wasnt that brilliant here lol

[empirestate] 13/4/2017 11:28

sp having another hang over day.

[the accountant] 12/4/2017 15:23

Last year results came out on 14th April, so maybe next week.

[nurdin] 12/4/2017 15:15

Thanks.I am particularly interested to know how much their debt has come down by.The reduction of debt was their main priority when they last reported their interims, if I am not mistaken.

Looks like the seller here is still around.Easy to buy stock well within the spread right now.I have taken advantage with a token buy.

[empirestate] 12/4/2017 15:04

Nurdin, reckon 2 to 3 weeks, should get confirmation of new cpo storage unit up and running prior to results

[nurdin] 12/4/2017 14:55

Anyone know when the annual results are due please?

[empirestate] 12/4/2017 14:15

We are at breakout point on the chart so let's hope she holds overnight

[empirestate] 12/4/2017 13:53

Big move up again boys, bloody hope this is it this time. Cheers

[a2584728] 12/4/2017 13:20

No still there I believe might see another shake soon, I hope not .

[cheshire man] 12/4/2017 12:04

Let's hope so shauney :-)

[shauney2] 12/4/2017 12:01

Seller gone?

[rivaldo] 12/4/2017 09:28

Cantor have a 29p target price - here's their post Q1 update summary FYI:

"DekelOil (BUY) – Q1 shows total sales up 36.6%

DKL LN (12.63p, TP 29p), Market Cap: £37m

(Corporate Stock)

Our view: DekelOil’s Q1 output statement shows strong overall growth with total sales up 36.6%. Importantly the low availability of fresh fruit bunches seen in Q4 is now past with a significant rebound in collections and record production. Prices are well ahead and while this has had a demand response on CPO sales this is expected to be short lived. Recent operational improvements are beginning to be felt and shareholders will now benefit from 100% ownership of the Ayenouan mill. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 29p.

• Production at record and collections rebound – DekelOil has issued its Q1 output statement for the three months to 31 March 2017. Total sales, excluding nursery sales, were up 36.6% on the same period in 2016, reflecting continued production expansion at the Ayenouan mill and a greater proportion of palm kernel oil (“PKO”) in the mix. Fresh fruit bunches collected were up almost 10% on Q1 2016. This is a relief following the drop in the availability of FFBs in Q4 2016 and it is good to see that this phenomenon has past. Production was up 8.3% slightly behind the FFB growth rate reflecting loweroil content in recent FFBs also reflected in an extraction rate of 22.8%. However towards the end of the period extraction rates have pickup significantly with the daily extraction rate at around 24%. The new empty fruit bunch press became operational in March and is contributing an additional 0.5% to the extraction rate.

• Prices strong – The average price achieved was very strong at €736/t, ahead of our forecast for year of €717. These high prices are good but have resulted in customers delaying purchases and as a result sales volume dropped slightly, down 1.7%, and inventory has risen. This would have been a 6.5% increase had 1,000t of stock pre-sold at March prices been included. New buyers are emerging in the country and it is expected that inventory levels will unwind at the beginning of H2.

• PKO also ahead – PKO extraction rate has risen to 42.3% from 39.9% and the achieved PKO price has been particularly strong, averaging €1,008/t up from €743/t and again ahead of our FY17 forecast of €930/t. The company is looking to store approximately 550t of nuts and process these during the high season in early Q3. This should maximise mill efficiency and yield 275t of kernels. The new 3,000t oil storage tank is expected to be operational in the next few weeks adding to the company’s ability to be flexible in its key markets.

• Valuation reflects cashflows – We value DekelOil on a DCF basis with a cost of equity of 15% and cost of debt of 10%. This gives us a target price of 29p. The principal risk to our valuation remains volatility in the CPO price."

[adorling] 11/4/2017 12:27

Really like the numbers on this Company and after hearing the CEO on Vox markets have taken an initial stake of 34,771 shares.