Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[royalalbert] 14/4/2023 11:19

Slowly increasing production and earnings will do for now. What with the palm oil production increasing I'd expect the share price to also increase..

[chadders] 14/4/2023 10:23

Could be but seems the market has zero interest is DKL right now, so I'm not expecting any fireworks.

[mr doughnut1] 13/4/2023 14:07

The reporting date for cashews is on or around the 15th following each quarter. So perhaps Monday?

[tradertrev] 13/4/2023 13:10

More on African processed cashews tucking into the Vietnamese lunch:


Extract (Google translation):
According to the Chinese Customs, the country's cashew imports in February 2023 reached US$ 9.15 million, up 37.2% compared to February 2022. Generally, in the first two months of 2023, China's cashew imports reached 19.42 million USD, down 25% compared to the same period in 2022. In the first 2 months of 2023, China reduced cashew nut imports from Vietnam, but increased Strongly imported from sources in Africa such as: Ivory Coast, Togo, Tanzania, Benin. This shows that Vietnam's cashew industry is facing a lot of competition from other producing countries in exporting to the Chinese market.
Eurostat also said that in 2022, the EU's cashew nut imports from the world will reach approximately 207 thousand tons, worth 1.37 billion EUR (equivalent to 1.48 billion USD), down 4.0% in volume, but increasing in volume. 5.2% in value compared to 2021. In 2022, the EU imported cashew nuts mainly from external sources, the volume reached 151.62 thousand tons, worth EUR 992.2 million (equivalent to 1.07 billion VND). USD), a decrease of 2.9% in volume, but an increase of 9.0% in value compared to 2021. In which, the EU reduced cashew imports from Vietnam, India, Brazil, but sharply increased imports from the Coast. Ivory Sea.

[tradertrev] 11/4/2023 09:51

Not sure if this article is relevant to us, but interestingly the Vietnamese cashew processors are getting worried. DKL's commentary suggests they will sell direct to the international market, which hopefully means our cashews are fully processed, not "preliminarily processed" which they are trying to block.


Google translation of full article here:

According to the General Department of Customs, in the first quarter, the export of cashew nuts was estimated at 122,000 tons, worth 708 million USD, up 16.6% in volume and 14.2% in value over the same period in 2022. The average export value was 5,826 USD/ton, down 2.1%.

According to the Vietnam Cashew Association, besides the domestic supply, the cashew industry is still quite dependent on the import of raw cashew materials for processing. In the first 2 months of this year, our country imported 272,000 tons of raw cashew nuts, worth more than 360 million USD; up 78.2% in volume and 52.2% in value over the same period in 2022.

Previously, Africa completely sold raw cashew nuts to Vietnam. Now, they import machinery from Vietnam to process cashews. But because the production is still young, the country has only just removed the outer shell and the preprocessed kernels they will sell back to Vietnam.

The Association said that the story worth mentioning here is that importing raw materials to Vietnam for processing will be very good, but importing semi-finished products will cause many immediate and long-term consequences for the industry. Accordingly, the industry will lose jobs for workers, continuing to import semi-finished materials will create opportunities for businesses in Africa to improve their production levels and technical quality. From there, this country will compete directly with the world's market for buying cashew kernels from Vietnam. In addition, we also do not know if the quality is guaranteed, leading to the consequences that customers importing cashew kernels will evaluate the quality of Vietnamese businesses as not guaranteed, the cashew kernel trading market will be shrinking. clusters, losing market share.

In addition to Africa, Vietnam is also importing preliminarily processed cashews from Cambodia, the industry's worries will increase in the coming time. Therefore, many processing factories want the Vietnam Cashew Association to propose the Vietnam Trade and Industry Federation to recommend the Government to have an intervention policy in importing preliminarily processed cashews to protect the domestic cashew industry. reduce competitive pressure for businesses.

Truc Oanh
Source: People's Deputies

[rivaldo] 11/4/2023 09:16

WH Ireland have retained their 9.5p price target.

They forecast 0.5c EPS (in euros) this year and 0.9c next year.

As well as the good news on CPO production, they note that CPO prices are some 7% above their expectations, and extraction rates are also being exceeded even at the slightly lower rate last month.

They conclude:

"Pleasing update, good momentum, fair value reaffirmed

This is a pleasing update because the company had flagged the start of a return to more buoyant volumes, and this is now being strongly borne out. Coupled with the pricing advantages which it is enjoying at the moment, DKL’s opportunity is only growing as it also marshals the potential of its new activity. Bearing all of this in mind, we see the current single digit forward ratings as presenting an investment opportunity, and retain our 9.5p fair value assessment (based on DCF and relatives)."

[royalalbert] 11/4/2023 07:39

If cashew news is good, a reversal should be well and truly underway.

[pugugly] 11/4/2023 07:38

Only negative I can see is crash in PKO price per tonne
Average PKO price per tonne €973 €1,486 -34.5%

[mr doughnut1] 11/4/2023 07:30

There's not a lot of news around today so here's hoping for a positive response. Also quarterly update on cashews due in the next few days.

[rivaldo] 11/4/2023 07:19

Much, much better. And crucially:

"The increase in production has continued into early April and our early guidance for April is we expect to report higher production in April compared to last year."

"With CPO prices remaining strong, we are currently capitalising on this period of strong production. FFB quantities in early April have continued to look promising setting the Palm Oil Operation up for a potentially strong Q2 2023 performance compared to last year."

Plus we have the first quarterly cashew production report coming in the next few days.

Time for a bounce.

[mr doughnut1] 11/4/2023 07:09

All looking very positive

[chadders] 06/4/2023 15:24

Fairly quiet day today considering the two bank holidays are now upon us. Should think the update will be Tuesday and hopefully we will be back on the straight and narrow...

[ptolemy] 03/4/2023 15:19

A Tweet from DKL.

[chadders] 30/3/2023 10:23

In my view yes, we've turned a corner. Good to see the Sp ticking up but a long way to go before all the pain will have been worth it.

[royalalbert] 30/3/2023 08:20

News on cashews in the next few weeks also, turned a corner???

[rivaldo] 30/3/2023 08:16

Great spot Mr D - and a nice accompanying video to boot. Here's a direct link:

"Fantastic to confirm as guided in our 13 March update that we have a return to a real high season this year in March.

Lets hope it sustains through Q2"

[royalalbert] 29/3/2023 20:28

Thanks for the post Mr D.

[chadders] 29/3/2023 19:34

You're not joking mr d. That looks like a lot of FFB to me.

[mr doughnut1] 29/3/2023 14:12

Looks like the high season is herehttps://twitter.com/dekelagrivision/status/1641028748823654401?s=61&t=66LHUpfeHyDafa4S9MrWbg https://twitter.com/dekelagrivision/status/1641028748823654401?s=61&t=66LHUpfeHyDafa4S9MrWbg

[rugs3] 22/3/2023 13:20

Thanks for posting Rivaldo. I will be happier when we get to one third of WHI'S ''fair value''.

[rivaldo] 22/3/2023 12:44

Cheers - the share price is certainly doing a lot better now :o))

WH Ireland restated their 9.5p fair value target after the recent update. They also forecast 0.5c EPS this year rising to 0.9c next year.

Here's some extracts:

"Recovery in palm oil production volumes as company enters high season

Today’s monthly production update from DKL highlights a recovery in palm oil volumes following a weaker start to the year, with strong pricing and conversion rates continuing to drive healthy margins. Overall volumes for February remained low compared to FY22; however, early indications in March point towards a material increase in FFB yields, with volumes currently ahead of March last year and well ahead of the previous month. While it remains too early to draw any conclusions on full year production, with CPO pricing still well over €900/tonne, a material increase in volumes over last year should deliver a strong financial performance in the palm oil business for FY23. In the cashew business, the project continues to progress positively, with further uplifts in daily production figures and strong
feedback from buyers in the US and Europe regarding the quality of the cashew product. Looking forward, DKL remains well placed, with a growing and cash generative contribution from its cashew operation and favourable pricing in the CPO market combining with improving volumes."

"FY23E forecasts well underpinned

Our FY23 forecast for the cashew business is premised on conservative assumptions for cashew production and pricing, which we believe are now well underpinned. Once in full operation, we expect the cashew project to contribute over €12m of revenue in FY23, with strong positive cash flows and potential for over €24m p.a. in the
longer term at 25%-plus gross margins.

• Forecasts / Valuation

Notwithstanding strong prospects as an increasingly diversified and significantly larger business, DKL’s shares have underperformed since the start of the year, with
the company now trading on P/E multiples of just 4.8x and 2.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively. While, inevitably, uncertainty remains around palm oil volumes and pricing, the business is both more broadly based and, by today’s evidence, performing increasingly strongly. As such, it is well positioned to reduce its debt balance as it becomes increasingly cash-generative. We retain our 9.5p fair value assessment (see our initiation note : DKL Note)."

[ga_dti] 17/3/2023 09:21

Latest interview with Lincoln Moore "doing a lot better than people realise"

[chadders] 16/3/2023 19:58

Yo mr d, yep still here, still holding, fingers still crossed.Expectations managed down the way though.

[mr doughnut1] 16/3/2023 13:49

Nice to see you still here Chadders. This one's enough to test any one's patience, with a good dose of Prozac thrown in for good measure. If you read the other thread it is easy to see why the share is unloved. LM always promises jam tomorrow.I still retain my holding.

[chadders] 16/3/2023 10:00

True redy123, but it's unloved and it's taken a while to get it to this position. Unfortunately it happens after months/years of overpromising and underperforming. Intrinsic value still there though.