Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 09/9/2010 09:24

a little odd that KNOC have not been in the market buying up to £18

[papy02] 09/9/2010 09:04

EE It hasn't been below £18 since KNOC announced their £18 bid - and it isn't going to start now.

... well it hasn't taken long for the above to be tested!

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 08:20

Either they or the Dana board are soon to lose face!

[phillis] 09/9/2010 08:18

If nobody shows as white knight it will confirm KNOC's view that this is a full offer

[restassured] 09/9/2010 08:05

Take the money and run before it drops £5

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 08:04

It's all about tactics: KNOC's announcement has knoc-ed the shares below £18 so they can start buying, but if you consider it objectively they reserve the right to out-bid a rival i.e. they DO see long-term strategic value over £18.

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/9/2010 08:03

KNOC taking a bit of a gamble that AM doesn't deliver. Will be interesting to see what they manage to buy today

[wikkid] 09/9/2010 08:01

If this bid were to fail (which i believe unlikely), then the long term holders are left with exactly what they bought for in the first place, i.e. Dana's management and prosects which they believe will return value in the future. Only those who bought for a 'quick buck' due to the bid will be the losers.
The same management, the same prospects and the new business acquired/ acquiring now is the worst case scenario. If this comes to fruition without KNOC and increases the share price over time to 'true value' then that is a better result than selling at £18.

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 07:24

Indeed there won't have been, until potential rivals see exactly what KNOC is prepared to do. The next two weeks is all.

KNOC quite desperately needs Dana, and the hedgies need to sell. Scant chance a bid falls through now.

[restassured] 09/9/2010 07:14

Take your £18 and be grateful.
The shares were £11 a few weeks ago.

No bid and they plummet.


Note the complete lack of other bids.

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 07:11

Well, as I was saying above!

"KNOC may remain poker faced at £18 - betting on the likelihood, institutions and hedge funds will then cave in rather than see the price fall back to any extent."

Clearly they (or Merrill Lynch) are confident as to their support (or the operations of the hedge fund concert party).

[emptyend] 08/9/2010 18:31

It hasn't been below £18 since KNOC announced their £18 bid - and it isn't going to start now. See

....oh yes - and remember that KNOC would be starting from a base of perhaps 20% shareholder acceptances (assuming that Schroeders etc put their clients money where they have put their mouths).....not the much-touted 48% "support".

[papy02] 08/9/2010 18:17

He won't be worried in the slightest by what the market "thinks" at this juncture!

surely he should be - if the share price drifts down to or below 18, KNOC can start buying?

[emptyend] 08/9/2010 15:52

It doesn't matter what he or ANYONE else thinks, including the stockmarket. The only people that matter are KNOC and any other party who might have an interest!

He won't be worried in the slightest by what the market "thinks" at this juncture!

[talkman] 08/9/2010 15:05

Uncle Tom most be upset at the response to his defence document. The market seems to think Dana is not worth more than £18

[edmondj] 08/9/2010 14:50

Fair enough; I guess we are a fortnight away from such a scenario anyway!

Although I would not rule out KNOC retaining its tough line for £18 if no rival appears.

Key thing for shareholders is, downside (i.e. 'event risk', of the bid falling apart) looks negligible, while there is still all to play for...

[phillis] 08/9/2010 14:37

if they know there is no white knight and they are going down at £18 why not?

Their actions so far would probably indicate that they would probably turn down a small top up - just to protect their "reputations"

[edmondj] 08/9/2010 14:33

Until today I thought (say) a 75p a share increase might swing a board recommendation. The Dana directors lose credibility for wherever they appear in future though, if they now do so - relative to today's defence document.

The defence is probably costing seven figures; are the directors to simply turn around and imply it has no integrity, in recommending £18.75?

[phillis] 08/9/2010 14:23

No point selling at a 6p extra profit
There is a chance of 75p for a Board rec and a couple of £ from a white knight

Agree - do nothing

[edmondj] 08/9/2010 14:09

He presumably means that if no rival better offer appears, KNOC may remain poker faced at £18 - betting on the likelihood, institutions and hedge funds will then cave in rather than see the price fall back to any extent. If there is still stalemate after a couple of weeks the shares may not be trading above £18 anyway.

The Dana board has dug itself in vigorously so would not give a recommendation unless KNOC pays materially more. Right now it's hard to guess what KNOC thinks and what it may or may not get away with.

I'm content to hold and ignore the offer as KNOC needs Dana and the institutions/hedgies will likely be only too willing to hand over majority shareholdings to save their own backsides at £18 in the short term. That's all they care about. It is still possible a white knight appears.

So the risk/reward probability looks attractive: a fraction of a per cent downside versus scope for 10% to 15% upside, over the next month.

That's how I read it, if anyone wants to differ...

[2006stocktaker] 08/9/2010 13:15

Talkman,

"The bottom line is that unless a white knight appears Dana is a gonner at £18"

I don't think so, with the price at 18.06 KNOC can't buy. Unless someone is prepared to buy at 18.06 and sell to KNOC at £18 I can't see it. Surely they will pay more for a recommendation, even without a bidder.

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/9/2010 13:03

Or given they're no longer insiders, mopping up stock at £18 from all those instos who think it's such a great price ;-#))))

[emptyend] 08/9/2010 12:47

Doubt it.....if I were KNOC at this point I'd be spending a couple of days looking through the stuff, pondering the risk of a counterbid, and phoning Dana with a view to meeting at the weekend.