Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[david1961] 20/8/2010 09:36

really stupid question but why would anyone be a seller this am - there seems to be a floor under the share price around 17.90 for those that want out now so it becomes a zero risk to continue to hold - KNOC going hostile implies they are not going to walk away so there is ONLY upside in form of a white knight.

All I'm losing by continuing to hold is the opportunity cost of not being able to purchase another share, but with the overall market looking a bit jittery at the moment then that is probably no bad thing.

Have I got that wrong or am i just a rabbit in the headlights as my finger was poised over the sell button this morning then it seemed too hasty a decision

[kirkie001] 20/8/2010 09:16

There's a part of me that thinks that Tom Cross would refuse to publicise what his view of "fair value" for a bid would be, on the basis that it might have been in an analyst's report at some stage and therefore shouldn't be made widely available to shareholders, or put on the company's website.....

Seriously thinking about selling out now that the bid's gone hostile at 1800p, and the market is now willing to pay that. Shame given I've been a holder for 6+ years, but then again, given the original entry point, then the overall result can't be bad. I don't see a downside from here - but am wondnering whether 10-15% for 'the next man' might be appropriate.

C'mon TC - if you've got a rabbit up your sleeve, then wake him up.....

[edmondj] 20/8/2010 09:16

The sum of future cash flows, discounted to a net present value.

If that helps!

[colsmith] 20/8/2010 09:10

As its hostile I wonder if the board will come out with a statment of what they think is fair value. I guess not - pity though as they must, as its hostile, have there own view on intrinsic and potential value; then it would be up to holders to decide if they considered the figure realistic and sell PDQ or hold. BTW does anyone know what "fair value means"?

[edmondj] 20/8/2010 09:07

What is the accumulated opportunity cost, from Peel Hunt to Evolution recently?!

How do these guys stay in the role, when the situation has stared at reasonably intelligent investors, so obviously?

[milacs] 20/8/2010 09:05

Where are all the doomsayers who said we've sold and the share price is on it's way back to £11.

M

[edmondj] 20/8/2010 09:02

Yes this was where Peel Hunt, Oriel etc, were urging 'sell', any long-termer has had to endure it for years - plus coverage in The Chronic Investor.

Boy have I got a lot to thank these brokers etc for, creating low prices, although it is Tom Cross & team who delivered value.

[stephanie_m] 20/8/2010 08:55

Well done to all long term holders.

Have a read of this post from March 2001


s

the hound - 17 Mar'01 - 00:18 - 11 of 76


WOW, watch it fly......NOT!

The problem with DNX is too many shares out there.

Look back at all the recent announcements they have made- Struck oil here, struck oil there, farm in deals, aquisitions etc. And the price has slowly dropped in the last 6 months from 15p to it present level.
I would hate to be in this one if they ever have bad news.

I was in DNX for ages, never saw more than a .25p gain, so got out recently,along with many others, when a broker recently downgraded them.

With the results out next month you may see 2p increase but as soon as it nears the 15p mark, get out bloody quick, there will be mass selling, too many people holding a loss on this one and will get out.

Only my opinion ofcourse.

God luck

Hound

[churchill2] 20/8/2010 08:53

Come on Sam. We need you.

[emptyend] 20/8/2010 07:56

The market price is going to be highly informed by DNX's response statement, when that emerges.....I'd guess it'll open below £18 - but it would seem that KNOC still can't buy in the market - so it may stay there for a while yet.
Counterbid suspects will be being rounded up....

[edmondj] 20/8/2010 07:40

It's a genuine arbitrage situation now, compared with the teenage media twaddle ascribing it thus, lately.

I'd expect fresh hedge fund money to enter today if possible to buy below £18.

Interesting to see where the shares trade next, as a sign of the market's 'informed' speculation?

[emptyend] 20/8/2010 07:34

if £18 is such a steal then there shouldn't be too much trouble in finding the white night........

Yes - quite right. Pressure now on Cross to produce him.

[edmondj] 20/8/2010 07:33

Indeed we have to respect that fact.

A company is ultimately worth what the market will pay for.

[phillis] 20/8/2010 07:31

if £18 is such a steal then there shouldn't be too much trouble in finding the white knight........

[emptyend] 20/8/2010 07:27

48% is a powerful weapon - though 27% are CFDs....and you can't vote CFDs!

Furthermore the acceptances can be withdrawn if there is a counter-offer.....and there is now plenty of room for a bidding war IF there is another bidder in the shadows. If not then it is game over.

I won't be doing anything until after the Bank Holiday weekend - and I guess that will be the advice of management.....so they have a week or so to potentially stitch up a deal with someone else now that they Koreans have shown a clear hand at £18. I suspect that £19.90 would be a knock-out counter that KNOC wouldn't contest - so any bidder in the wings has a call option on Anne Marie.


It might yet be relevant that KNOC haven't done a hostile bid before......

ee

[scarletpimpernel2] 20/8/2010 07:23

Bloomberg says opening price today £17.85

[phillis] 20/8/2010 07:13

got the timing wrong but promises for 48% is a poweful weapon

[thecrownsucks] 20/8/2010 07:11

VOG could go the same way..only 3p to buy...production in 3 months

[edmondj] 20/8/2010 07:10

Well it reduces to the simple matter of whether a rival exists.

[sandlab] 20/8/2010 07:07

Coincidence.

Solomon9 went hostile too...

[shevies] 20/8/2010 07:06

with all the CFDs and arbitrage and 19% acceptance of actual shareholders, is it game over now ??

[dafad] 20/8/2010 07:04

Its gone hostile at 1800p