UKCM/BBOX's agreed merger has just had a PUSU extension, can imagine we may get the same thing with 3-way API, SHED, CREI..
Edit - a reminder the current PUSU is a week today, Friday 15th. |
@pharmaboy |
Do you have a link, please nick |
At least CREIs plea to API shareholders this morning hasn't included any extra cash which is good as we don't need to pay anymore. |
@Sky that struck me as it has with others that single sale assets are achieving on average above most recent valuations. Also here one of the buildings sold recently is in my neighbourhood and has been empty for years to a developer given planning application has appeared for the site. |
nick - thnx for that - YES - missed it due to the interminable broker dealing declarations.
It was a pretty noteworthy statement that deserved more comment. Yet more evidence that valuers are being over-conservative and not reflecting true marketable values. |
@Sky yes
but if your like me the inbox is getting flooded with RNSs galore from all the reits i have email alerts set up for due to the wave of mergers so easy to miss them. At least LXI/LMP will done this time next week. |
"CREI seem to be building up a cash sweetener?"
How come? Has there been an RNS of a property sale? |
CREI seem to be building up a cash sweetener? Do hope not.
Nice premium tho. |
BoDs should recommend neither unless they have no faith in Baggley |
ii's likely to plump for enhanced liquidity and that indicates SHED.
Potential opportunity in SHED shares, particularly if they get shoved lower. |
API trades at a discount because the acquirer will fall further, and it's all-share. |
Can't remember one like this before - every time the market thinks one might have got it, the share price of the other rises, and then they're in the diving seat instead :)
PUSU is 15th March so a while to go yet.
Wonder if the key is if API switches its recommendation from CREI's offer to SHED's. That dialogue is surely ongoing.
Whoever chucks some cash in, or chucks some jobs to the API lot, or ups a little, may get it. Find it hard to see API staying independent. |
API trading at a discount to both bids... |
* increasing the bid an unlikely option - the share price of that company would face further downward pressure.
Might be too rudimentary a take, but that's how I see it - and yes, neither may end up with API. |
Trying to work out the odds of staying in CREI & SHED. One may be successful (and fall), one may be correspondingly unsuccessful (and rise). Or neither succeed, and both rise.
But what if the successful, faller, is successful by increasing their bid...
CREI is the better fit, SHED has more firepower. |
The last logistics asset CREI sold was 7% Above NAV, from memory - would need to double check. |
Specto - yr comments re NAV fly in the face of all evidence. Why do you think ALL the REIT bids you were posting about earlier this week base their offers upon NAV - ALL, without exception. NAV relates to the underlying values of the business. Your blind spot on this issue is frankly bizarre.
Still; if you can profit by ignoring the facts, then power to you!
Over & out on this non-issue. |
I agree NAVs not perfect, but in trying to gauge the relative value of the 2 bids, I think reference to NAV is a much better guide than the fluctuating share prices. SHED has consistently sold properties in line or above NAV which suggests it's a reasonable measure. Earnings yield also a good guide and take that into consideration. |
Thank you for your kind words, @Skyship. I've endlessly pointed out the fallacy of trusting NAV, and dare I say have been proven entirely correct.
NAV relevant for LTV, but little else.
But no point me repeating the evidence again. I'll save my 50 post limit for elsewhere.
None so blind as those who won't see. |
riverman - Specto makes many well-researched and insightful posts; but in his personal quest to achieve 50 posts/day, he often posts, to use his words - Utter bunkum.
His 294 above in the latter category.
I agree with your comments re NAV - a useful tool; though at the moment I'm majoring on those income streams which are providing so many secure 8%+ yields. |
I think reference to NAV is a much better way to gauge value than the current share prices, which can just randomly move around. NAVs aren't perfect but pretty good measure of underlying value for REITs. Put it this way, if SHED share price falls 10%, it doesn't mean the underlying value of its portfolio is suddenly worth 10% less. GROW is completely different and no idea what relevance that has. |
"As it stands SHED is the better offer as (based on current API share price) it gives access to SHED at a 30% discount to NAV, while CREI offer gives exposure to CREI at a 27% discount to NAV."
Utter bunkum. Why not have GROW bid for them, there's an even better discount there? |
As we know uncertainty is kryptonite in the stock market. Might be another trading opportunity here, let's see.
On a medium term buy and hold the current price looks reasonable risk/reward, barring something significantly adverse hitting.
Perhaps fair to say the former CREI narrow discount to NAV may be gone for sometime, but as the attraction for those holding (rather than trading) is regular income, investors may not be too concerned. |
If CREI are so desperate to get API then make a better offer. As it stands SHED is the better offer as (based on current API share price) it gives access to SHED at a 30% discount to NAV, while CREI offer gives exposure to CREI at a 27% discount to NAV.
SHED also has a better portfolio in terms of rental growth prospects, albeit lower income than CREI (would happily sacrifice a bit of income for better growth so I would vote for SHED). |
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