The short position is certainly interesting, if CRS manage to block-place with eg a bidder (DLAR seems a possibility for that).
Admire your optimism on ALM :) And hope FW comes through eventually. But CRS been the only buyer on a few of their holdings. |
My personal view is that it will be easy to sell 18% of Allied Minds at a premium to current price shortly and still at a huge discount to NAV. There's a few possibilities with AM and one should probably look into the tax loss position as it could be attractive to corporate buyers... unlikely the AM leadership will do anything to help CA ...but they don't seem to do much to help any shareholders anyway! Think it works out on its own.Some stocks like De La Rue and Equals are already suffering discounts anticipating position sell down in the market ..however if strategic buyers are found there will be some big jumps as Saba are short. I do hope Crystal Amber have a few deals in the pipeline and catch them short. |
Citywire say "50p back by June 2022". CRS looks uninvestable still. Only thing that would change that is some significant bulk disposals to other major shareholders - you'd never get any of those stakes out in the market otherwise.
@kooba - imagine trying to sell 18% of ALM.......... |
But interesting that over 50% of votes cast were supporting continuation.it is extremely rare to see a shareholder vote that can be won by a minority but that is no doubt why the vultures landed at crystal amber door.The control these shareholders can exercise on the proposals resulting from resolution 10 though is somewhat limited so cannot force through an accelerated monetisation.We must see the proposals , some time guidance already given..if Saba don't like the proposals their only route would be a general meeting to change the management for that they need over 50% which i think they would not achieve , since they are not aligned with other holders it does matter on some holdings how low shares are sold and they positively wouldn't necessarily want strategic sales or takeovers that would boost the price as they would be left short and squeezed. Hope holders think this through if it comes to such a vote. |
Extraordinary Resolution 10, THAT the Company continue as constituted, required a 75% majority of votes cast to pass and did not pass. |
Many thanks thirty fifty twenty.
That all makes sense and I agree with your overall % per annum.
I suppose I am somewhat jaundiced by past investments in 'winding down' companies which found every reason under the sun to hang onto their fat fees.
I was indeed thinking that 2 will take the longest to sell, and that this might slow things down overall. |
 hi Centipede
Saba have given themselves a 'guaranteed' profit.
i.e. they have bought shares (say DLAR for example) at a c.30% discount to the market value. then they hedge their position with a short in the market.
thus whatever happens to the DLAR share price they have a c.30% profit as their effective buying and selling prices are so different.
i considered doing the same myself but when i looked at the individual holdings i felt that they all had upside potential so my own strategy was to use the 'safety net' of the CRS discount as a way to play the upside in the stocks.
DLAR, HUR, EQLS are (IMHO)each interesting + potential bid candidates.
it all changes because CRS are now a seller of transformative stakes,
so a competitor would never have considered making a hostile bid,
but now with a willing seller it can 'easily' make a friendly bid to extract value.
of the 5 quoted stakes i am hoping that just 1 will lead to corporate activity at a 20% premium to the market price. this is also likely to happen within 6 months rather say 2 years. i am hoping that 2 will be liquidated/sold on at close to market value. and i am expecting 2 to be part of a tail that will take 12mths plus to sell (at maybe 20% less than market value)
this scenario gives me >20% returns p.a. with very little downside
time will tell.....
certainly the recent 10%+ move in DLAR a few dyas before the vote is interesting.
i rather like SUH. it is backed by property assets and marinas.
as a stand alone it is risky but i do think that CRS selling their stake could lead to value being crystalised (excuse the pun)
All IMGO, DYOR + BoL
CRS is in my top5 |
Saba are long DLAR by virtue of their holding in CRS and have part hedged their exposure through a direct short in DLAR - all par for the course in the trust busting playbook |
I wonder what is really going on. According to this article,
‘Saba has significant short positions – bets that the shares will go down – on Crystal Amber’s biggest holdings, De La Rue (2.21%) and Allied Minds PLC (LON:ALM), and that a sale of Crystal Amber’s De La Rue stake would likely lead to Saba taking a bath on its short position.’
Do they still have these positions ? All seems a bit strange, so I’m just having a small punt.
My bet would be a couple of years for complete liquidation. |
So how long do we think it would take to wind up? Most holds seem very liquid right |
Saba are following a well trodden path used by trust busters - prepare for winding up |
With AGM coming up are we all in agreement now that CRS will begin winding up? or do we think changes being made in the last 6-9 mths will be enough for Saba to allow it to continue? Thanks all for your input |
Hi 305020, My reference in 634 was to the previous post, by Tomps2, with the links to PIWORLD Stockslam. I read the word Slam in the name and expected something negative, but that is their way of recommending a share. They agree with you that CRS is underpriced. |
hi Wbodger... if you were referring to my previous post,
then apologies i wasn;t specific.
I was referring to the NAV of CRS which , at spot prices + adj,
now stands at 163.8p per my calcs.
thus the CRS share price is at a 28% discount to spot NAV
DYOR etc.. |
..sorry, posted on wrong board. |
with the recent tick up in DLAR i make the spot NAV (adj) at 163.8p
which makes the market at a 28% discount
despite the likelihood of wind up,
and 4 of the 5 listed shares in chart uptrends. (DLAR, EQLS, HUR, SUH)
the other is a flat/bottoming charts trends. (ALM)
all IMHO, DYOR + BoL
CRS is in my top5 hldgs |
It's actually positive about CRS immediate share price prospects because of the continuation vote.
(I have clearly lost my grasp of the English language. 'Slam' doesn't seem to mean what it used to...) |
Dee O’Hare ‘slams’ Crystal Amber (CRS) at 10m24s in the latest PIWORLD/Stockopedia Stockslam
Watch the video here:
Or listen to the podcast here: |
Saba increased to 26% of crystal amber this week. Roll on the meeting in late November |
The last two Holdings RNSs reported by DLAR have been about CA selling. They have sold down from over 14% in June to under 10%. Meanwhile CA has bought back its own shares into Treasury, and there are now about 16% there. Those votes cannot control the outcome of the continuation vote but maybe Bernstein is manoeuvring to influence the post-vote future. If he has a friendly investor lined up 16% would be a handy start as a non-diluting placement.
The list of significant shareholders is in the Final Results RNS of 28/09, Substantial Interests. Saba has over 25% and the next name Wirral BC is the Merseyside Pension Fund which may have bought most of Invesco's 20% when they exited a year ago.
Re 628 it would cost upwards of £100 million to take HUR private. Even allowing for their 26% start they don't have £75 million, besides they may look for an exit for their 26% if someone else makes that sort of offer. |
So you say the rns from 15th at DLAR was about CA selling over there? |
CA now have sub 10% shares of de la rue. Wonder how this affects Saba short position on dlr? |
So CA adding more HUR. Do they want to buy 4% more and take them priv?? |
Must say with many CA targets its often the management that is the issue but a bad management can take some shifting and can do a lot of damage before they go.. A number of the shares that went wrong are now back on very solid tracks but not necessarily fully reflecting the improved management or model pushed by CA..De La Rue , Equals both turned the corner but are both on very modest relative ratings for now , i think Allied Minds has bottomed out as a portfolio but that is no where near reflected in the market value..if it was led by Mark Lerdal as CA wanted there might be a better communication and valuation ...he achieved much at Leaf . Hurricane has been a real issue though CA took good money off the table when the company was championed as a saviour of UK oil exploration but again we had a management who misled or misinterpreted ..or just got it wrong leading to a sharp reassessment of value..then replaced by a management that seemed keen to give all the equity value to the bondholders in a restructuring ..from a poor situation CA have single handedly ( just about) defeated the restructuring and the shares have responded positively. Must say RB has not made his life easy in some of these situations but many are well through the worst and are emerging strongly on the other side which is starting to be reflected in the underlying valuations.Im sure there were some text book winners along the way like Thorntons...the ups and downs of activism !! |
The distribution was 12.62 pence in 2020 following Hawkeye proceeds. |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
