Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[madengland_] 24/11/2015 14:09

Thanks Riv, today's market mistake is an opportunity imo

[rivaldo] 24/11/2015 13:35

The price is bouncing now, and rightly so. H2 is always seasonally better, and the new client wins including Vodafone, British Airways, Sony etc should start to kick in.

Liberum have retained their Buy and 190p price target:

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/119643/creston-s-growth-slows-but-long-term-strategy-on-track-says-liberum-119643.html

"But Liberum Capital remains upbeat on the stock despite the slowdown in the first half.

“Fundamentally, Creston is operationally on track with its five year strategy and new business wins are driving improved performance, and How Splendid is growing well with the Unlimited brand being on track,” the broker said.

It points to a number of new contract wins, including becoming the advisor for British Airways's data strategy as well as other contracts with Vodafone, Sony Mobile and McLaren.

“These account wins suggest Creston is building momentum in the agency space. Again the key here is that Creston strategy is very much on track,” the broker added.

The broker reiterated its ‘buy’ recommendation on the stock and has placed a 190p price target on Creston’s shares."

[johnsuwon] 24/11/2015 13:34

Where can I find the brokers forecasts ? Not just the consensus but the individual forecasts ?

[madengland_] 24/11/2015 12:56

It's also interesting the market seems to have missed the divi increase. I agree totally that Cre has over years disappointed with its acquisition strategy and lack of the elusive 'synergy' that Elgie used to harp on about, and it's disappointing that Brian has not been able to deliver a result on his strategy this time. I say this time. However a glass half full look would say that he has effectively used Cre strengths and has responded and managed to only slightly disappoint. There does seem to be underlying progress and the divi increase shows that confidence. A time to add possibly?

[nehpets81] 24/11/2015 11:59

Rivaldo - with the exception of Peel Hunt all the other brokers that I had figures for reduced over the past few months as the share price declined (I have a spread sheet where I enter them in, and the ones that go down I highlight in red and the CRE forecasts were a sea of red) - I assumed that must have been in response to a nudge from management here that their forecasts were a bit rich.

Anyway, after the mark down this morning these shares look cheap on nearly every metric and it even has a relatively strong balance sheet for a marketing company with a positive tangible book value.

[smithie6] 24/11/2015 11:14

...sadly..year after year this co. seems to keep tripping up on its own shoe laces

Invested heavily via acquisitions in USA...£20M ?...but the results imo didnt respond

Over 800 staff I think and around 50% of turnover from digital sector...& made digital acquisitions...
So...for me it seems surprising...a bit... that buying stakes in small marketing cos.....surprising to me that CRE doesnt have the skills in house or cannot add 1-5 staff to add any missing dig. skills to existing dig. teams...

[rivaldo] 24/11/2015 09:47

Exactly madengland. To prove the point, Edison have just issued a new research report, presumably discussed with management.

They have new forecasts of:

this year : 13.4p EPS, 4.3p divi
next year : 14p EPS, 4.5p divi

They've only reduced forecasts by 5% - "slightly" as indicated in the RNS, and they're expecting a net cash position by year end:



"Valuation: Substantial discount to peers

Creston’s share price has drifted back over the last couple of months and the
valuation now stands at 6.8x CY15 EV/EBITDA, a 23% discount to the marketing
services sector, with a similar discount a year further out. We would expect this discount to start to close when the newsflow becomes more consistently positive as the new business momentum gets translated into a more robustly improving earnings stream."

[madengland_] 24/11/2015 08:59

Agreed Riv, sell off well over done though, when you read the commentary.

[rivaldo] 24/11/2015 08:10

Typical - CRE have actually sorted themselves out strategy-wise, are winning clients and new business, but find themselves shot in the foot by reduced medical budgets and the weakened euro.

The markdown seems a bit of an over-reaction in an illiquid stock.

CRE are only to be "slightly" below expectations, which implies around 12.5p-13p EPS this year. Given almost 5p EPS in H1 this feels achievable as CRE report improved trading in Q2 and in H2 to date.

The interim divi implies a 4.4p or so divi for the year - a handsome yield.

However, this company always seems to take one step forward and then another one back. Given the new wins with the likes of Vodafone and British Airways etc, it's time the performance matched up to the quality of the client list and the 20 year average longevity of those clients.

[madengland_] 24/11/2015 07:50

Well looks like it will be a bumpy start. Having only had time to skim read the results, it strikes me that there is good monitoring and competent response within the business. Outlook positive. May well average down on the inevitable drop today. GL

[madengland_] 24/11/2015 07:24

Well I didn't call that one right. No major problems but can't see the share price gaining today

[madengland_] 23/11/2015 09:30

Great news Riv, am looking forwards to the outlook statement. There is a lot of potential as we all know

[rivaldo] 23/11/2015 07:26

Brilliant news - CRE have won a British Airways account.

This is only a month after winning a Vodafone account.

It seems the new management and strategy is doing very nicely:



"British Airways picks Creston Unlimited for CRM strategy
November 20, 2015
by Omar Oakes

British Airways has picked Creston Unlimited and data analytics consultancy Aquila Insight to handle the airline's customer relationship management work.

In August Campaign reported British Airways was looking for an agency to manage analytics for its CRM programme without an intermediary.

Milk, the customer strategy agency, is the incumbent on the account, which will be transferred to Creston Unlimited and Aquila Insight on 1 December.

Creston Unlimited will manage the CRM strategy, while Aquila will work alongside the airline’s analytics team.

Bartle Bogle Hegarty has looked after British Airways’ above-the-line advertising and customer loyalty business since March 2014, while Carat handles the airlines' media planning and buying.

Sara Dunham, the head of marketing, retail and direct, at British Airways, said: "CRM is critical to differentiating British Airways for our customers and engaging effectively with them.

"It enables us to place them at the heart of our marketing by delivering messages that are relevant and personal.

"We believe that the best way to deliver that personalised approach is to have data planners and analysts working hand-in-hand with CRM strategists.

"Creston Unlimited and Aquila provided us with a solution that delivered exactly that and played to both their strengths."

[madengland_] 20/11/2015 19:22

Well I topped a few today.My money is in because I am expecting results to beat expectations. On the day of results the chances are it will be too late to add.

[madengland_] 20/11/2015 16:05

Pre results shake out over

[rivaldo] 19/11/2015 15:39

Consensus EPS forecasts have remained rock-solid, having increased over the last 12 months to 13.95p this year and 14.63p next year:



Peel Hunt's forecasts yesterday were 13.98p EPS and 14.73p EPS, with 4.66p and 4.91p dividends respectively.

[nehpets81] 18/11/2015 14:47

I have noticed that EPS estimates for the year have edged down from N+1 Singer, Edison and Sanlam over the past couple of months. I am not sure whether this is due to some sort of external factor or whether the company itself has guided expectations lower?

[rivaldo] 17/11/2015 15:49

The share price is moving back up easily on a better day for the markets, just as it moved down on some small selling.

The long term trend remains upwards.

[toffeeman] 16/11/2015 16:46

Normally does!

[johnsuwon] 16/11/2015 16:04

I don't get this one. Net cash and forward PE of 9.5. Is the chart trying to tell us something ?

[madengland_] 16/11/2015 09:24

Looks like a pre results shake affording an opportunity to buyers

[madengland_] 11/11/2015 12:46

Time to buy!

[madengland_] 05/11/2015 18:46

Thanks Riv I bought couple decent chunks today. I am hopeful of a top end set results......agree Mgt have started to get act together, and expectations to me are low. If the strategy is working expect upside :-)

[rivaldo] 05/11/2015 12:09

Liberum today reiterate their Buy and 190p target:



Hi madengland. Consesnus is now 13.75p EPS with a 4.63p dividend for this year. I can see plenty of share price upside from that and looking forward to next year's 14.6p EPS.

The main plus for me is that the new management have made all the right moves so far. And there have been some significant new client wins recently (see above posts).

Results are on 24th November - steady as she goes will be fine for me!