Cradle Arc Share Discussion Threads

[baton] 25/11/2014 10:44

Interesting theory. Who knows?

The Oil Price Crash: Who Dunnit?

hxxp://www.theglobalist.com/the-oil-price-crash-who-dunnit/

[septblues] 25/11/2014 07:59

Good note Nick2412

It suddenly occured to me reading your note that perhaps we should focus our attention on the right issues as far as the DGC is concerned.

We know that DGC works well for extended periods in gas at high temps, and we know that the electronics works well ""PC's massive achievement" comment from you I think".

But it did encounter worse than expected oil presence.

It's been designed to deal with 18%? i think.

So the real technology advancement required is not in the DGC itself but in that required to predict the characteristics of the well so that it can operate within its design parameters. Call it well characterisation.

But that aside I think all is progressing well and can see a comfortable multiple uplift (despite the dilutions) on my initial investment to justify staying the course and better than benchmark Small co funds.

Nimmo of Standard Life who tipped Corac as his top prospect either the beginning of this year or last, clearly decided to rebalance his portfolio away from O&G in the last quarter (would have been a house economic view bearing in mind OPEC oil production, oil prices, US shale gas progress and oil now landing on US coast through new pipes) against a ytd performance which is 4th quartile. He needs to get back into 1st quartile rankings for various reasons and the process and his team may have concluded to go elsewhere for performance against the O&G economic backdrop.

if Russia is losing $25 per barrel on each oil barrel shipped ($100 break even and $75 actual) which stops arctic exploration etc, and, is haemoraging $bn's dealing with sanctions ($100bn annually and $40bn to date according to Russian finance minister), its going to need every possible way to get more revenues from its gas. I dont think it can afford not to supply.

Barclays broker forecasts shows £21m revenue and £3.4m loss this year and £23m revenue and £1.7m loss next year (2015) and continues to indicate "strong buy".

[itchycrack] 24/11/2014 23:19

I added significantly over the past couple of trading sessions. IMHO we've seen the bottom, the price drop mainly due to the overhang and lack of buyers. I think the tide is now turning so I've put some dosh where my mouth is :-) I cannot see why we can't be back in the 10p to 14p trading range in a few months time, particularly if the price can take out the September high. All IMHO of course, DYOR etc.

[timmbo] 24/11/2014 18:26

It might be worth sending your post to the man in charge, give them a reminder!

[timmbo] 24/11/2014 18:17

Thanks Nick, a lot going on I agree, just looking forward to the day CET announce a deal on the same scale as ACI

[nick2412] 24/11/2014 18:07

"We anticipate being ahead of market expectations with reduced losses and in a robust financial position." (Sept '14) Since then CRA have announced the £10m contract for ACI and a revenue producing deal with Spirax. I think we can safely say that ACI and HG are doing well and the CET project with BP (Trinidad and Tobago) and the Spirax contract are both moving ahead well.

Hopefully we will get a full update on CET and the following projects:-

IGC :- Could be a bigger market than the DGC although it's never captured the imagination of investors in the same way the DGC did.

DGC :- probably on the back burner but any upbeat statement to the contrary would cause a significant uplift.

Fu Sheng, OMV, LMF, Tullow - probably no continuing prospects / discussions.

Shale gas: this from a cenkos note a couple of years ago:- "The drawback of source gas from shale deposits is that each small-bore week produces limited gas at lower pressure and flow rates than conventional gas wells. CRA's technology can address this issue.

Water treatment::- again from Cenkos over two years ago " We expect relatively quick development of CRA's footprint in this market. Water utilities are an established market. Corac can make an immediate operational impact."

I don't think either of these opportunities have progressed.

So in summary for CET I'd say they are moving forward as planned with BPTT for offshore compact compressors, developing useful although not initially large revenues with Spirax, moving slowly but surely with Aramco for the IGC (never easy dealing with these large companies) and will only move the DGC forward if ENI or the Texan partner will cough up for another test or if they make a breakthrough when their new testing facility becomes available.

I suspect they are also keeping costs down in CET and that in tandem with the positive news for ACI should make for improving financial figures.

The earlier Cenkos notes make interesting reading and Cenkos habitually referenced the likes of Wood Group's sale for $1.7b of its submersible pump with the inference that CRA's tech could ultimately sold for similar figures. They also cited 7 similar sector acquisitions by GE for prices ranging from $0.56m to $3b.

[timmbo] 24/11/2014 17:45

What CET deal of magnitude do we have? £££'??

[timmbo] 24/11/2014 17:44

Several CET deals? What are they if you don't mind me asking.

[the_doctor] 24/11/2014 16:08

Consolidation around 6p for a while would be healthy and give a firmer platform for a move upwards.

[the_doctor] 24/11/2014 15:16

A progress update likely before any deals there IMO
They've got several deals already, so it's a case of running with those, although there may be follow-on deals, or some new ones of course

[timmbo] 24/11/2014 14:46

Just waiting for a fair sized CET deal now.

[timmbo] 24/11/2014 05:34

I can see 10-15p before Christmas then push on in the new year.

[the_doctor] 21/11/2014 14:37

CRA is due to give an update before year end

Here's one aspect
'a gas let down expander is in the build phase at the technology centre, and is expected to be delivered before the end of the year for customer testing'

in 2013 they said this
'Following this, there is an option for CET to produce a further five units and then provision for an ongoing licensing arrangement on volume units to be produced by the manufacturing partner. This would take total contract value to circa GBP4.4m over five years with ongoing royalties per unit thereafter.'

and this
'We understand there are thousands of application sites in the United States, and further opportunities to open other markets and applications using our core technologies; this has the potential to have a major impact on the global renewable energy market.'

That's perhaps more exciting than the DGC ever was, yet there's very little in the market cap for it!



With the BP project
'On concluding this phase in early 2014, CET expects to progress to system build and testing which will be covered by further orders.'

Have we had those further orders yet?
In the last update CRA said the project was going well technically and financially

[the_doctor] 21/11/2014 13:19

10p seems an obvious next target

[itchycrack] 21/11/2014 13:16

I added this morning and yesterday, good entry point for the medium term IMHO.

[the_doctor] 21/11/2014 13:12

I did try to tell shareholder, but his mind was made up!

[theuniversal] 21/11/2014 12:36

Bought a few at 3.75p judged the candlestick reversal. Hoping this stays above 5p now as a new support and a slow climb to 10p for Christmas. 7p-8p will be a good finish also.

[bullster] 21/11/2014 12:35

Thanks TP.

[the prophet] 21/11/2014 12:26

well done to those who managed to buy in at what looks like being the bottom.

[empirestate] 21/11/2014 12:24

looking nice an keen and well bid for, which is nice

[azalea] 21/11/2014 11:55

DOC
My mistake, I did not read the rns carefully enough(it crossed the 5% level) it's now 8.52%.

[the_doctor] 21/11/2014 11:32

Interesting that an already exposed holder has essentially doubled down
(37m is 8.9%)

That just leaves the 4m lump, which we may not see if that doesn't take the holder over a certain %

[azalea] 21/11/2014 11:26

Hargeaves buys 19.75m share. Total 37,396,590(5%)

[timmbo] 21/11/2014 10:05

Fantastic growth story developing.