Coro Energy Share Discussion Threads

[grannyboy] 16/3/2022 12:41

Being buying into these over the last couple of days, the last time I was in these the share price trebled in less then three weeks!..

[pavey ark] 16/3/2022 10:49

Aware of the debt/bond situation but the circumstances surrounding their assets have certainly improved in the last month or so.

The Italian gas update seems to have been ignored here ....anyway...just in for a little punt at 0.38p......"he who dares wins".....sometimes !!

[helpfull] 16/3/2022 09:51

Always been at 384 Bcf. And the £ value of that figure, pro rata, needs to double to be able to pay the debt in 2 years time.

Be careful.

[blueblood] 16/3/2022 09:32

So you have now moved from 276 BCF to 383 BCF at least. Suggest you now need to move to the still conservative 495 BCF and recognise reduced risk and risk and massive increase in underlying commodity price. Slowly getting there and glad to be helpful to you. Be careful you don't leave it too late before closing your shorts...

[currypasty] 16/3/2022 09:27

so 5p on "best estimate "

[helpfull] 16/3/2022 09:27

"so based on this alone the value of Coro's stake the way you value it, has almost doubled"

Doubling of the Coro stake would be the equivalent of the debt in 2 years time. Plus nothing. The value of the stake would have to quadruple for Coro to receive $34 million. And that's based onthe 384 Bcf resource. Not going to happen. Note also the value per MMBtu paid in the RNS:

"representing an effective acquisition price of $0.34/MMBtu on a 2C basis"

Might be a useful aid in in giving the resource a value.

Be careful.

[ride daice] 16/3/2022 09:25

Did he end it with be careful ?

[lazarus2010] 16/3/2022 09:15

copied from the Good Newz thread set up by perennial pessimist Helpfull in reply to his pathetic valuation of Coro's stake

so 15% of 495Bcf = 74.25Bcf which at just $1/MMscf = $74mln x 0.77 = £57mln

At a conservative $3.MMscf it is worth £171mln

Take off maximum £30mln for loan notes = £141mln.

Take off 20% that loan note holders will be entitled to = £113mln

Current market cap = £8mln

113/8 = 14 bags

14 x 0.36 = 5pps!!

That is just for Best Estimate of recoverable resources.

The high estimate is over 700Bcf

The potential to be a much larger field, say 1Tcf means 10pps for Coro at just $3/MMscfg

[lazarus2010] 16/3/2022 09:14

so 15% of 495Bcf = 74.25Bcf which at just $1/MMscf = $74mln x 0.77 = £57mln

At a conservative $3.MMscf it is worth £171mln

Take off maximum £30mln for loan notes = £141mln.

Take off 20% that loan note holders will be entitled to = £113mln

Current market cap = £8mln

113/8 = 14 bags

14 x 0.36 = 5pps!!

That is just for Best Estimate of recoverable resources.

The high estimate is over 700Bcf

The potential to be a much larger field, say 1Tcf means 10pps for Coro at just $3/MMscfg

[lazarus2010] 16/3/2022 09:07

This is why it is now worth so mch more than when Coro bought in...79% increase to the 2019 audit...so based on this alone the value of Coro's stake the way you value it, has almost doubled!

Deluded muppet!



Conrad Petroleum, the operator of the Duyung offshore block in Indonesia containing the Mako gas field, has said that an independent resource audit has shown that Mako is one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in West Natuna Basin.

Following the drilling campaign completed in late 2019, Conrad carried out an internal, comprehensive field review that was concluded in April 2020. The review covered all subsurface and surface aspects of the development of the field and indicated significantly higher overall
resource volumes than previous estimates, along with the potential for considerably higher daily production rates of high-quality dry gas.

Subsequently, Conrad engaged Gaffney Cline and Associates (“GCA”) to complete an independent resource audit for the Mako Gas Field.

GCA’s audit, dated 22nd May 2020, confirmed Conrad’s internal resource estimates and provided a significant upgrade for the Mako Gas Field compared to their previous audit of January 2019, Conrad said Tuesday.

The 2C (contingent) recoverable resource estimates have been increased to 495Bcf, an increase of approximately 79% compared with the 2019 audit. In the upside case, the 3C (contingent) resources have increased by approximately 108% compared with the 2019 audit.

"With the latest upgrade, Mako has been shown to be one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in West Natuna Basin, and is currently by far the largest undeveloped resource in the immediate area," Conrad said Tuesday.

Miltos Xynogalas, CEO, commented: “The GCA audit results are extremely gratifying not only because they confirm the large resources of the Mako Field, but also because they endorse the high-quality technical work performed by Conrad. Over the last three years, the company drilled
three successful wells and undertook numerous rigorous technical studies.

"Our efforts, supported by our joint venture partners, have proven the high value resources of the Mako accumulation and have brought the field closer to development. It is a tremendous achievement for a relatively
young company such as Conrad to be able to identify and mature almost 0.5 Tcf of gas resources at Mako, resources that lie close to existing infrastructure and well-established gas markets. The Company is now positioned to take the project to FID, the next and very critical milestone in our road map to production.”

David Johnson, Executive Chairman, said: “Mako has the potential to deliver gas to address both the aspirations of the Indonesian government and pipeline gas needs of the Singaporean market. We look forward to the development of a domestic Indonesian market for West Natuna gas and
are excited to work with Singapore to extend the fruitful partnership between Indonesian-based West Natuna producers and Singapore-based gas users.”

[blueblood] 16/3/2022 08:46

They hadn't drilled it then ffs how thick and unhelpful can you get...

[lazarus2010] 16/3/2022 08:28

they didn't pay $15.3mln, they paid $13.45mln with the rest in shares. They also paid 10.5mln of the $13.45mln by way of contribution to the 2019 drilling campaign.
Not sure if they ever paid the full amount. They bought their stake before the 2nd well had been drilled and only after the first well had been tested at 10.8MMscfgpd.

So for the 2nd well they got in before the asset had been fully proven with regards size and potential flow rates and hence best estimate of original gas in place.

They did not buy a stake in an oven ready asset. There is a huge difference in the value of a proven asset compared to the value of 2D and 3d seismics with a single well and only 10.8MMscfgpd test production.

The huge uplift in value has been created by the 2nd well being proven and the gas prices increasing dramatically. Then add potential increased size and potential deeper plays (which they could keep the rights to and just sell the already drilled gas formations.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Under the terms of the binding conditional agreement, Coro Energy will pay a $4.8m cash and shares consideration, which consists of $2.95m in cash and $1.85m in shares.

“The operator, Conrad Petroleum, has done a great job in bringing the project forward and advancing the technical understanding of the field and the surrounding prospects.”
Coro Energy will also contribute $10.5m toward the drilling campaign for 2019 to acquire the stake in the Duyung PSC.

The Mako gas field’s commercial viability was demonstrated by the Mako South-1 well drilled by WNEL in 2017 to the core and test the Mako reservoir, flowing up to 10.8MMscf/d of dry gas on test.

[helpfull] 15/3/2022 20:59

Not so ludicrous. Simply pro rata.The $15.3 million "buy in" to a 276 Bcf asset was the real world.If Coro Energy wants to sell, it will do so in the real world. It is important to remember that Conrad sold the mainpart of that 15% to Coro Energy and they will have to be just as realistic when/if the asset is sold on. Realistic, as in how they valued Duyung when allowing Coro Energy on board. They didn't try to value the 276 Bcf in the same manner you want to. They would not have used aggressive swear words either.

Be careful.

[lazarus2010] 15/3/2022 19:28

2. 384 Bcf would be worth $21.3 million at the time.

HTF do you get such a ludicrous valuation? 384bcf at $1/scfg to is $384mln. With Indonesia having to pay $14 for LNG, $10/mscfg is CHEAP. If Coro could only get $1/mscfg their share would be worth nearly $60mln, which after recovery factor and paying back the loan and the 20% of remaining value comes out close to the current market cap and hence share price Do you think Coro would give away $9/mscfg for somebody to develop it or would they go for it and get $600mln instead? Bit of a no brainer,, add in the potential increased field size and deeper resources and I think you're barking up the wrong tree, or just barking!

[maltby2002] 15/3/2022 19:28

Even with the £25 million loan note, an £8 million market cap for a company that will generate at least £5 million p.a from its Italian assets and an imminent GSA for Duyong does look a snip at these prices

[helpfull] 15/3/2022 19:11

The simple calculation is:

1.Coro Energy paid the equivalent of $15.3 million for its 15% stake when the asset was 276 Bcf.

2. 384 Bcf would be worth $21.3 million at the time.

3. The value of each scuff in the ground is irrelevant. The price someone was willing to pay and the value someone was willing to sell at is important.

4. To receive an amount equivalent to the debt in 2 years time ($35.55 million) the value that someone needs to buy at, needs to double, as does the value someone needs to sell at. That value could come from a doubling of the price per scuff in the touted GSA. I think this is unlikely. There is a little time value. But for Coro to get an actual net profit of about $34 million the value that someone needs to pay is four times the equivalent of what Coro was willing to pay (a $568 million market capitalisation). Very doubtful.

Be careful.

[blueblood] 15/3/2022 17:08

Looks the right ballpark was thinking of c$3

[lazarus2010] 15/3/2022 16:45

An easy calculation for 384 Bcf gives a value of $21.3 million

surely at $1/1000scfg 384 bcf = $384mln so 10% = $38.4mln and 15% = almost $58mln and that's at $1 in the ground, might be worth $3-4 if prices in Indonesia for LNG are $15!!

[digger2779] 15/3/2022 16:15

Laz -
aptly entitled Good newz lol

[lazarus2010] 15/3/2022 15:58

which other thread digger?

[blueblood] 15/3/2022 13:55

Oh dear what an unhelpful post. Let's base the calculations on what we paid back before any drilling was done or any reserves increased. We have at least doubled reserves and derisked project with well results so try using 10 times original valuation for staters. $150M seems fair estimate at this stage.....

[digger2779] 15/3/2022 12:38

I see Mr Helpfull's calculations on the other thread are at odds to what is posted here. Always another side to the coin but I don't think he is being very helpful and has some other agenda.

[blueblood] 15/3/2022 12:16

Getting GSA signed in next couple of weeks likely to secure price maybe 15-20% higher than before Xmas. Pure profit to bottom line of project!

[helpfull] 15/3/2022 12:12

Tickety Tock! Stop that clock!

I calculate that in 2024 that the bond holder debt will be $ 35,550,000.

Coro Energy bought a 15% interest in Duyung for $15.3 million. That's $15.3 million for 276 Bcf. An easy calculation for 384 Bcf gives a value of $21.3 million for the Coro share of Duyung today. The Coro Energy debt in two years time will be $35.55 million. The $21.3 million is not enough to clear the debt after costs. So, double the cost per scuff from Feb 2019 and there will be just enough to clear the debt. Quadruple the cost per scuff from Feb 2019 and Coro get 80% of $42.6 million. That's $34 million. Or £26 million. Or 1.22p per share. If the fabled GSA ever appears it needs to be at $32-44 per scuff. Or a total value for Duyung of $568 million. That's a sale value. Some hope. And all for an imaginary 1.22p.

Realistically, Duyung might just be worth the debt Coro Energy owes. Just. Or 0p per share. Would this type of company sell out at such prices? Empyrean Energy did. 1.5% for the equivalent of about $1.5 million. Allowing for the increase in reserves it could do so again. The release of any GSA might not be the news shareholders are hoping for. A dose of reality might not be the medicine the doctor ordered.

Be careful.