Coro Energy Share Discussion Threads

[currypasty] 15/11/2021 16:18

i think i need a 10 bagger though!

[currypasty] 15/11/2021 16:16

id agree on that..

so if some of your calcs are on the money, what price could we expect here..

Im feeling more confident of getting my money back... and some

[lazarus2010] 15/11/2021 15:39

Curry - Boris Johnson is a tw*t...ok maybe that's not a rumour, it's a fact ;-)

[currypasty] 15/11/2021 14:04

any rumours ?

[helpfull] 15/11/2021 11:54

News next week? Maybe. When you guess 52+ weeks continually it may be time to change to "news next year".

On 15 November 2020 (that's one year ago to the day) you might have read on this bulletin board:

"Why the hell anyone would sell now is truely baffling. News incoming that is potentially game changing for company and enable them to ramp up green energy diversification at just the right time imo"

"based on EME comments their share could be $30m, which would give coro about £46m, less £27m (debt+fees+interest+running costs), leaves about £19mil, when mcap is just over £2m Good money onsale of Duyung and possible 10 bagger... surprised more gamblers arnt looking at this"

"19m divided by 790m shares = 2.4p"

"That's just for cash. No debt and funded for major move into green energy should see move past 3p high if Duyung is sold for suggested figures"

All very familiar posts and posters. Come back next year and nothing will have changed. Be careful.

[johnswan193] 15/11/2021 10:10

The 3.7m this AM was mine, that's all that was available at 0.25.

[lazarus2010] 15/11/2021 07:57

Potential Value to EME for 8.5% of Mako (Coro has 15% of Mako)

Based on a calculation by Zengas from 2017 valuing EME stake at $70mln when EME held 10% (since when PoG has increased and resource estimates have increased)

$70mln*0.85 = $59.5mln/577mln shares = $0.1033 per share

$0.1033/1.34 = 7.7pps

If Zengas valued the stake based on $7 then a quick calc shows every additional $1 on the GSA is worth an additional $8.5mln or £6.34mln or c. 1.1pps

Therefore

@ $8 = 8.8p
@ $9 = 9.9p
@ $10 = 11pps

As mentioned previously and by Safi again, this excludes any potential step out, increased field size to join up with Medco or any deeper plays

From the EME board and then my take on the potential to Coro...

Safiande14 Nov '21 - 15:20 - 42298 of 42301
0 18 2
Here is Coro´s presentation from last Thurs by Mark Hood. He appears to be a bit out of date as the upgraded POD ( 2C Bcf495 - 3C Bcf817) was approved in Sep. In any event he has promised a new Q & A with latest info this week.
In terms of valuation, Zengas has a figure of US$70m for EME´s wi ( 10% at the time )in his post dated Jul 2017 hiding in plain sight in the header. This is based on 3 horizontal wells. The current field development plan involves an initial six vertical well development scheme ( 5 producers and 1 back up) in 2023 along with a small platform housing the compression facilities, which would be tied into the WNTS pipeline. A further 2 - 3 wells are planned for 2027 to maintain plateau production of 150 mmscfd ( ca.28,330 bbl eq. ). This will produce substantial revenue over a long period, even allowing for typically one off capex and fixed annual operating costs of US$32m and a US$0.45 per Mscf WNTS tariff charge for transporting the gas to Singapore & Jakarta.
The above currently excludes the shallow step out prospect to the SE of the Mako field which has a mean on site recoverable reserve of ca.100Bcf & a POS of 75%, which is effectively in the bag from an exploitation perspective on a problem free drilling basis. Also obviously excludes the deeper drill ready prospects and any extension of the Mako single tank reservoir to Medco´s oil & gas production field at Natuna sea Block B.
Align Research provided a valuation for Coro in Dec 2020 based on the current POD Mako field of 2C 495Bcf i.e. excluding the step out of 100Bcf. They determined the Net Present Value using a 10% and 12% discount factor which gave figures of US$48.5 million and US$40.8 million respectively. In their analysis they chose to use the NPV determined with a 12% discount factor rather than the more commonly applied 10%, 8% or even 5%. This was in order to more heavily risk the project as they wished to remain conservative. As we know in Sep,Tom mentioned in "Share Talk " that EME´s NPV has increased " substantially " compared to the pre pandemic late 2019 NPV.

===================================================================================

Re EME valuation based on 8.5% stake

$70mln*0.85 = $59.5mln/577mln shares = $0.1033 per share

$0.1033/1.34 = 7.7pps

If Zengas valued the stake based on $7 then a quck calc shows every additional $1 on the GSA is worth an additional $8.5mln or £6.34 or c. 1.1pps

Therefore

Let's say conservatively we get $8 in the GSA = 8.8pps

Let's double that for increased field size = 17.6pps

Lets add 50% for deeper plays = 22pps

let's add another 50% for the fun of it (actually for future potential increases in price of gas, oil discoveries in the lower formations, the extra 100bln mentioned by Saf etc)...33pps just for 8.5% stake in Mako.

Note that Coro has a 15% stake, almost twice that of EME, and the current market cap is c. £6mln. If Mako is eventually worth close to £150mln to EME, Coro's stake could be worth close to £300mln for a £6mln market cap company!!

AIMHO DYOR NIAI GLA

[steelwatch] 13/11/2021 11:08

Proactive presentation:

[the donald] 12/11/2021 08:00

Should see some interest here soon then. Market cap of £6m seems very low considering all the short term news due.

[the donald] 12/11/2021 07:59

Cheers Laz, appreciate your take on these things with working in the energy sector.

[lazarus2010] 12/11/2021 07:57

TD, the online questions will be submitted and I guess another Proactive presentation will take place to respond to the questions.

I like the comments re 'GSAs' as this had never been mentioned before, it was always just (one) GSA previously. This suggests they have been negotiating with more than one offtake party which I guess provides added security in that they will always have a buyer and maybe those buyers will even have to compete over prices.

I'm hoping there is some sort of minimum offtake price and that prices are also related to spot prices, maybe less some form of discount for the buyer hedging with guaranteed amounts to be bought for say 3 months in advance, which would help to maximise prices during high market price volatility but still provide the buyers with a healthy discount to make them more competitive in their markets.

I'm also hoping 'relatively soon' does not stretch beyond the end of November!!

[the donald] 12/11/2021 07:30

A more detailed summary of presentation from Laz on the EME thread. Lazarus201011 Nov '21 - 22:09 - 42247 of 42247
0 13 0
Coro presentation...

Mentioned looking at how to release value from the Duyung asset.

Also

'...the next step for us is to work alongside the operator to to finalise those gas sales agreements (plural) which are progressing at pace and should have news coming through relatively shortly'

He said they have updated the PoD which HAS been changed and updated due to the increase in the reserves.

Will export direct to Singapore.

Not much else.

Key points:
- more than one GSA (Which might explain the delays to EME being able to issue an RNS?)
- Expecting news on GSAs relatively soon
- PoD HAS been changed and updated (didn't say submitted?)
- Looking to release value from the asset.

[the donald] 11/11/2021 22:07

I missed that Laz. They did Q&A with all the other presenters and while Mark was presenting, Proactive allowed online questions to be submitted during the presentation. Oh well, Duyung seems very positive,

[lazarus2010] 11/11/2021 21:38

He didn't do a QnA because it was pre-recorded due to time difference, I'm sure they said at the start

[the donald] 11/11/2021 21:02

Not at all. Recently bought in for multibags on Duyung. That asset just gets more and more valuable.

[mrzippo] 11/11/2021 20:59

Only seeing innocent investors mugged off by professional con men irks me. I guess you are in too far to admit that to yourself.

[the donald] 11/11/2021 20:56

Mrzippo, do you have some issues here?

[the donald] 11/11/2021 19:47

Mark was the only presenter that didn't do a Q&A. Shame but is that because there is news imminent?

[the donald] 11/11/2021 19:42

Proactive update. Covid has delayed matters in Duyung but now progressing at speed. Development plan has recently changed due to potential increasing. Expect to entering into GSA soon.

[helpfull] 10/11/2021 14:09

Trying again. Apparently there is a presentation tomorrow. All muggings needs to do is buy the shares and sit back and await the revelations. Because that is what happens. Always. Or muggings gets left holding the shares as they fall back again. It's a simpletons game. Be careful.

[the donald] 10/11/2021 13:27

Coro presentation tomorrow evening with Proactive. I've registered as I'm sure Duyung progress will be talked about. Some updates on the green projects too.

It's free to join on the proactive web site

[i love blautix] 10/11/2021 12:28

You really are not very helpfull after all

[helpfull] 09/11/2021 08:57

Did all that promised news happen last week? Duyung? Green Energy? New projects? Renewables? Italian assets sale? Those in the know from the Empyrean board jumped across to make a quick buck(or not). Perhaps they know less than the average mug punter. There are 800,000,000 million shares at 0.4p from the last placing looming. Be careful.