Corcel Share Discussion Threads

[dukedosh] 27/2/2014 00:47

RNS at 7am probably. The news release is now on Caracal's web site:

[manni786] 27/2/2014 00:03

So looks like a rns releasing tomorrow here in the uk if its out over the atlantic?

[dukedosh] 26/2/2014 22:49

This is what RBC said about their expectations 3 weeks ago:

dukedosh 7 Feb'14 - 16:33 - 42 of 46 0 0 edit

RBC Capital today:

Caracal Energy (LSE: CRCL; Outperform, 700p Price Target)
In the week commencing 17th February we expect Caracal to release of an updated Reserves Report. Given successes at Krim and a remapping of the Badila field we anticipate that Caracal's 2P reserves could have increased to ~100mmbbl, from 86mmbbl.

[valhamos] 26/2/2014 21:58

Thanks dukedosh - but how could RBC have been only expecting 2P of ~100MMB when the Q3 2013 update has 172.3 as the comparative figure (Gross 100%)for the 179.6 new amount?

[dukedosh] 26/2/2014 21:16

RBC Capital recently noted that they expected Proved plus Probable ("2P") of ~100 MMB, we got 179.6 MMB, an increase of 101% YOY. Now that's a wow!

[dukedosh] 26/2/2014 20:36

* The long awaited reserves update. An excellent news update here too. Significant increase in reserves. I'm having a great day on the markets today. This share price should open strong in the morning.

Caracal Energy Inc. - Reserves & Resources Year-end Evaluation

CALGARY, Feb. 26, 2014 /CNW/ - Caracal Energy Inc. ("Caracal" or the "Company") (LSE:CRCL) is pleased to announce today the results of its 2013 year-end oil and gas reserve and contingent resource evaluation.

The independent reserves and resources evaluation was provided by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. ("McDaniel") and demonstrates a significant increase in volumes from our prior year evaluation with an effective date December 31, 2012.

Highlights include:

Gross Lease Reserves
Proven ("1P") of 47.4 million barrels ("MMB"), an increase of 64% *
Proved plus Probable ("2P") of 179.6 MMB, an increase of 101%
Proved plus Probable plus Possible ("3P") of 388.6 MMB, an increase of 94%
Caracal Net Entitlement Reserves
1P of 18.8 MMB, an increase of 67%
2P of 64.3 MMB, an increase of 102%
3P of 118.1 MMB, an increase of 85%
Caracal's Net Present Value attributable to Reserves (discounted at 10% before tax) - all amounts in U.S. Dollars
1P of $688 million, an increase of 24%
2P of $1,722 million, an increase of 61%
3P of $3,224 million, an increase of 71%
*All comparisons above are relative to the Company's December 31, 2012 reserves and resources evaluation, provided by GLJ Petroleum Consultant Ltd. ("GLJ") in a statement of reserves and contingent resources effective December 31, 2012 and included in the Company's United Kingdom prospectus. When compared with the GLJ report on reserves and contingent resources with effective date December 31, 2012, prepared in accordance with the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook") and National Instrument 51-101 - Reserves Data and Other Oil & Gas Information ("NI 51-101") (the "COGE Report"), issued on June 28, 2013, and as included in the Company's final long-form prospectus as dated and filed with the Alberta Securities Commission on July 2, 2013, the 2013 year-end oil and gas reserve and contingent resource evaluation represents the following percentage increases as compared to the COGE Report: For Gross Lease Reserves: (i) 64% for 1P, (ii) 119% for 2P, and (iii) 111% for 3P; for Caracal Net Entitlement Reserves: (i) 67% for 1P, (ii) 127% for 2P, and (iii) 107% for 3P; and for Net Present Value attributable to Reserves: (i) 24% for 1P, (ii) 61% for 2P, and (iii) 75% for 3P.

Gary Guidry, Chief Executive Officer of Caracal, said:
"We are pleased to report another year of significant growth in oil reserve volumes on our Production Sharing Contracts ("PSC") in Chad. Since 2011 when the PSCs were awarded, we have grown gross lease 2P Reserves volumes by 439%. We look forward to delivering further growth as we continue to execute on our extensive exploration, appraisal and development programs."

The following tables summarize certain information contained in the independent reserves and resources report prepared by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. ("McDaniel" as of December 31, 2013 (collectively, the "McDaniel Report" or the "Report"). The Report was prepared in accordance with definitions, standards and procedures contained in the COGE Handbook and NI 51-101. Additional reserve information as required under NI 51-101 will be included in the Company's Annual Information Form which will be filed on SEDAR on or before March 31, 2014.

Unless otherwise specified, all dollar values are in millions of US dollars ($MM).

Summary of Oil Reserves and Resources:

The Net Present Values included in the table below were based on oil price forecasts, effective July 1, 2013, provided by McDaniel.

SUMMARY OF CRUDE OIL RESERVES
AS AT DECEMBER 31, 2013

Summary of Reserves (in MMB)(1)
Gross (100%)(2)(5) Company's Net Participating
Interest(3)(5) Company's net
entitlement(4)(5)
PDP 1P 2P 3P PDP 1P 2P 3P PDP 1P 2P 3P
Asset
Mangara Field - 22.2 69.9 145.5 - 11.1 34.9 72.8 - 9.6 24.9 45.0
Badila Field 9.1 21.3 44.7 95.3 4.5 10.6 22.4 47.6 3.8 7.5 14.1 25.3
Krim Field - 3.9 19.0 42.7 - 1.9 9.5 21.4 - 1.8 7.7 15.2
Kibea Field - - 45.9 105.0 - - 23.0 52.5 - - 17.6 32.6

Total Reserves 9.1 47.4 179.6 388.6 4.5 23.7 89.8 194.3 3.8 18.8 64.3 118.1
Notes:
(1) All of the Company's proved, probable and possible reserves have been classified as light and
medium crude oil. The Company has no heavy crude oil. Based on current market conditions in
Chad, neither reserves or values have been attributed to gas or natural gas liquid volumes.
However, the Company has rights to monetise gas volumes and is currently discussing and
assessing this market potential for the future.
(2) Gross is the total marketable reserves assigned to the Company's concessions.
(3) The Government of Chad initially elected to acquire a 25 percent participating interest in the Badila
and Mangara EXAs before selling 10 percent to Glencore. McDaniel has assumed, for the purposes
of estimating the Company's participating interest in any future EXAs which may be granted under
each PSC, that the Government of Chad will elect to acquire a 25 percent participating interest in
each EXA. Accordingly, the Company's and Glencore's participating interests have been assumed
to be 50 percent and 25 percent, respectively, of the gross lease interest in future developments.
(4) Net reserves are the Company's share of Cost Oil recovery and Profit Oil. A portion of the reported
reserves will increase as oil prices decrease (and vice versa) as the barrels necessary to achieve
cost recovery change with prevailing oil prices. Under the COGE Handbook, using the economic
interest method, "Net" as depicted above is equivalent to "company net" and, in the particular
case of the Company's PSCs, "company gross".
(5) Columns may not add due to rounding.
SUMMARY OF CRUDE OIL CONTINGENT RESOURCES
AS AT DECEMBER 31, 2013

Summary of Contingent Resource (in MMB)(1)
Gross (100%)(2)(4) Company's Net Participating
Interest(3)(4)
1C 2C 3C 1C 2C 3C
Asset
Maku Field 0.3 2.2 4.7 0.2 1.1 2.3
Sako North Field 0.1 0.7 2.0 0.0 0.4 1.0
Tega Field 0.2 1.3 3.6 0.1 0.6 1.8
Total 0.6 4.2 10.3 0.3 2.1 5.2
Notes:
(1) All of the Company's contingent resources have been classified as light
and medium crude oil. The Company has no heavy crude oil. Based on
current market conditions in Chad, neither contingent resources or values
have been attributed to gas or natural gas liquid volumes. However, the
Company has rights to monetise gas volumes and is currently discussing
and assessing this market potential for the future.
(2) Gross is the total marketable contingent resources assigned to the
Company's concessions.
(3) The Government of Chad initially elected to acquire a 25 percent
participating interest in the Badila and Mangara EXAs before selling
10 percent to Glencore. McDaniel has assumed, for the purposes of
estimating the Company's participating interest in any future EXAs
which may be granted under each PSC, that the Government of Chad
will elect to acquire a 25 percent participating interest in each EXA.
Accordingly, the Company's and Glencore's participating interests
have been assumed to be 50 percent and 25 percent, respectively,
of the gross lease interest in future developments.
(4) Columns may not add due to rounding.
Oil Reserves Evaluation Summary:

SUMMARY OF CRUDE OIL RESERVES
AS AT DECEMBER 30, 2013
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS

Light & Medium Crude Oil(1)
Reserves Category Gross Lease(2)(5) Participating
Interest(3)(5) Company's Net
Entitlement(4)(5)
(MB)(6) (MB)(6) (MB)(6)
Proved Developed Producing
Mangara - - -
Badila 9,076 4,538 3,750
Krim - - -
Kibea - - -
Total Proved Developed Producing 9,076 4,538 3,750
Proved Undeveloped
Mangara 22,217 11,109 9,559
Badila 12,204 6,102 3,749
Krim 3,886 1,943 1,783
Kibea - - -
Total Proved Undeveloped 38,307 19,154 15,091
Total Proved 47,384 23,692 18,840

Probable
Mangara 47,678 23,839 15,321
Badila 23,450 11,725 6,591
Krim 15,143 7,571 5,907
Kibea 45,916 22,958 17,640
Total Probable 132,187 66,093 45,459
Total Proved plus Probable 179,570 89,785 64,299

Possible
Mangara 75,627 37,813 20,083
Badila 50,540 25,270 11,255
Krim 23,699 11,849 7,539
Kibea 59,127 29,564 14,927
Total Possible 208,993 104,497 53,805
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible 388,563 194,282 118,104
Notes:
(1) All of the Company's proved, probable and possible reserves have been classified as light and medium
crude oil. The Company has no heavy crude oil. Based on current market conditions in Chad, neither
reserves or values have been attributed to gas or natural gas liquid volumes. However, the Company
has rights to monetize gas volumes and is currently discussing and assessing this market potential for
the future.
(2) Gross lease are the total marketable reserves assigned to the Company's concessions.
(3) The Government of Chad initially elected to acquire a 25 percent participating interest in the Badila and
Mangara EXAs before selling 10 percent to Glencore. McDaniel has assumed, for the purposes of
estimating the Company's participating interest in any future EXAs which may be granted under each
PSC, that the Government of Chad will elect to acquire a 25 percent participating interest in each EXA.
Accordingly, the Company's and Glencore's participating interests have been assumed to be 50 percent
and 25 percent, respectively, of the gross lease interest in future developments.
(4) Net reserves are the Company's share of Cost Oil recovery and Profit Oil. Under the COGE Handbook,
using the economic interest method, "Net" as depicted above is equivalent to "company net" and, in the
particular case of the Company's PSCs, "company gross".
(5) Columns may not add due to rounding.
(6) "MB" refers to thousands of barrels.
SUMMARY OF NET PRESENT VALUE OF FUTURE NET REVENUE (US$)
AS AT DECEMBER 31, 2013
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS

Before and After Taxes Before and After Income Tax(1)(2)(3) Discounted at
(millions of dollars) Unit Value Before
Deducting
Income Taxes
Discounted at
10%/year
Reserves Category
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ($/boe)
Proved Developed Producing
Mangara - - - - - -
Badila 222 208 196 185 176 52.30
Krim - - - - - -
Kibea - - - - - -
Total Proved Developed Producing 222 208 196 185 176 52.30
Proved Undeveloped
Mangara 411 337 281 237 202 29.42
Badila 224 203 185 170 157 49.36
Krim 44 33 25 20 15 14.29
Kibea - - - - - -
Total Proved Undeveloped 679 573 492 427 375 32.59
Total Proved 901 782 688 612 551 36.51

Probable
Mangara 805 616 484 389 319 31.62
Badila 346 296 258 227 203 39.13
Krim 195 142 104 78 59 17.65
Kibea 490 306 188 109 56 10.66
Total Probable 1,837 1,361 1,035 804 637 22.76
Total Proved plus Probable 2,738 2,143 1,723 1,416 1,188 26.79

Possible
Mangara 1128 786 577 442 350 28.75
Badila 738 540 414 330 270 36.81
Krim 366 248 173 123 90 22.88
Kibea 836 518 337 228 158 22.60
Total Possible(3) 3,068 2,092 1,501 1,123 868 27.91
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible(3) 5,806 4,235 3,224 2,539 2,056 27.30
Notes:
(1) The Government of Chad initially elected to acquire a 25 percent participating interest in the Badila and Mangara EXAs
before selling 10 percent to Glencore. McDaniel has assumed, for the purposes of estimating the Company's participating
interest in any future EXAs which may be granted under each PSC, that the Government of Chad will elect to acquire a 25
percent participating interest in each EXA. Accordingly, the Company's and Glencore's participating interests have been
assumed to be 50 percent and 25 percent, respectively, of the gross lease interest in future developments.
(2) Pursuant to the terms of the DOB/DOI PSC and the Doseo/Borogop PSC, the Government of Chad's Profit Oil allocation
is inclusive of income tax.
(3) Columns may not add due to rounding.

TOTAL COMPANY FUTURE NET REVENUE (UNDISCOUNTED) (US$)
AS AT DECEMBER 31, 2013
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS

Category Capital and Future Net Future Net Future Net
Operating Abandonment Revenue Income Revenue Revenue
Revenue Costs Costs Before Tax Tax After Tax Discounted @
($000's) ($000's) ($000's) ($000's) ($000's) ($000's) 10% ($000's)
Proved Reserves 1,619,300 405,200 313,400 900,900 - 900,900 687,800
Proved Plus Probable Reserves 5,416,100 1,516,200 1,162,300 2,737,600 - 2,737,600 1,722,400
Proved Plus Probable Plus Possible Reserves 10,484,200 3,044,200 1,634,300 5,805,700 - 5,805,700 3,223,900
Note:
(1) Pursuant to the terms of the DOB/DOI PSC and the Doseo/Borogop PSC, the Government of Chad's Profit Oil allocation is inclusive of income tax.
FUTURE NET REVENUE BY PRODUCTION GROUP (US$)
AS AT DECEMBER 31, 2013
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS

Category Production Group(2) Future Net Revenue
Before Income
Taxes (discounted
at 10% year)
($000's) Unit Value(1)
($/boe)
Proved Reserves Light and Medium Crude Oil
(including solution gas and other
by-products) 687.8 36.51
Proved Plus Probable Reserves Light and Medium Crude Oil
(including solution gas and other
by-products) 1,722.4 26.79
Proved Plus Probable Reserves
Plus Possible Reserves Light and Medium Crude Oil
(including solution gas and other
by-products) 3,223.9 27.30
Notes:
(1) The unit values are based on the Company's net reserve volumes.
(2) All of the Company's proved, probable and possible reserves have been classified as light and medium
crude oil. The Company has no heavy crude oil. Based on current market conditions in Chad neither
reserves or values have been attributed to gas or natural gas liquid volumes. However, the Company
has rights to monetize gas volumes and is currently discussing and addressing this market potential
for the future.
PRICING ASSUMPTIONS

The forecast cost and price assumptions assume changes in wellhead selling prices and take into account inflation with respect to future operating and capital costs. McDaniel has employed the following price and inflation rate assumptions as of July 1, 2013 where evaluating the Company's reserves data:

Year Brent Reference
Price(1) (US$/bbl) Realized
Price(1) Inflation
Rates(2)
%/Year
2014 105.00 90.87 2
2015 102.50 88.91 2
2016 100.20 86.55 2
2017 97.70 82.00 2
2018 98.00 80.24 2
2019 96.60 81.11 2
2020 98.50 82.77 2
2021 100.50 83.82 2
Thereafter +2%/year
Notes:
(1) McDaniel has assumed a reference price of Brent
(in US$) and utilized the McDaniel January 1, 2014
Price Forecast. The realized price is forecast to be
95 percent of Brent minus the estimated pipeline
transportation tariff of US$7.09/bbl and the variable
ITA Badila/Mangara and ITA East Doseo tariffs. The
realized price given is the average for all the
properties in McDaniel's 2P case.
(2) Inflation rates for forecasting expenditure prices and costs.
Reserves & Resources - Additional Information:

Reserves Classification

The oil reserves estimates presented in this press release have been based on the Canadian reserves definitions and guidelines prepared by the Standing Committee on Reserves Definitions of the CIM (Petroleum Society) as presented in the COGE Handbook. A summary of those definitions is presented below.

Reserves Categories

Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, from a given date forward, based on

analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and engineering data;
the use of established technology; and
specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable, and shall be disclosed.
Reserves are classified according to the degree of certainty associated with the estimates.

Proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. Other criteria that must also be met for the categorization of reserves are provided in the COGE Handbook.
Development and Production Status

Each of the reserves categories (proved, probable and possible) may be divided into developed and undeveloped categories:

Developed reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would involve a low expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of drilling a well) to put the reserves on production. The developed category may be subdivided into producing and non-producing.
Developed producing reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.
Developed non-producing reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut-in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown.
Undeveloped reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (proved, probable, possible) to which they are assigned.
In multi-well pools it may be appropriate to allocate total pool reserves between the developed and undeveloped categories or to subdivide the developed reserves for the pool between developed producing and developed non-producing. This allocation should be based on the estimator's assessment as to the reserves that will be recovered from specific wells, facilities and completion intervals in the pool and their respective development and production status.
Levels of Certainty for Reported Reserves

The qualitative certainty levels referred to in the definitions above are applicable to individual reserves entities (which refers to the lowest level at which reserves calculations are performed) and to reported reserves (which refers to the highest-level sum of individual entity estimates for which reserves estimates are presented). Reported reserves should target the following levels of certainty under a specific set of economic conditions:

at least a 90 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimated proved reserves. This category of reserves can also be denoted as 1P;
at least a 50 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves. This category of reserves can also be denoted as 2P; and
at least a 10 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. This category of reserves can also be denoted as 3P. Additional clarification of certainty levels associated with reserves estimates and the effect of aggregation is provided in the COGE Handbook.
Contingent Resources Classification

The assessment of the contingent resources in this press release were based on the resource definitions presented in the COGE Handbook Section 5 and are restated below.

Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters, or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage. Contingent resources are further classified in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status.

Uncertainty Categories

Estimates of resources always involve uncertainty, and the degree of uncertainty can vary widely between accumulations/projects and over the life of a project. Consequently, estimates of resources should generally be quoted as a range according to the level of confidence associated with the estimates. An understanding of statistical concepts and terminology is essential to understanding the confidence associated with resources definitions and categories. The range of uncertainty of estimated recoverable volumes may be represented by either deterministic scenarios or a probability distribution. Resources should be provided as low, best and high estimates, as follows:

Low Estimate - This is considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90 percent probability (P90) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate.
Best Estimate - This is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent probability (P50) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
High Estimate - This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the high estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 10 percent probability (P10) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.
Contingent Resource Categories

For Contingent Resources, the general cumulative terms low/best/high estimates are denoted as 1C/2C/3C respectively. No specific terms are defined for incremental quantities within Contingent Resources.

Risks and Uncertainties

The recovery of resources is subject to significant risk and uncertainty. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources reported herein. The contingent resource estimates in this press release are not currently classified as reserves primarily due to economic considerations. In order to develop Kibea, Maku, Tega, and Sako North construction of a pipeline of approximately 500 kilometres at an estimated cost of US$381 million is required.

BOE

This press release includes references to BOEs. References to "BOE" may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil is based on an approximation of energy equivalence conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the well head.

Cautionary Statements

Certain information contained in this press release constitutes forward-looking information or statements including, without limitation, information and statements respecting: drilling operations, anticipated cash flow, future investment objectives, anticipated oil and gas pricing, expected inflation and future foreign exchange rates. Statements relating to "reserves" and "resources" are forward-looking information as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that, among others, the reserves and resources described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated. Forward-looking information and statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "seek", "believe", "expect", "hope", "plan", "intend", "forecast", "target", "project", "guidance", "may", " might", "will", "should", "could", "estimate", "predict" or similar words or expressions suggesting future outcomes or language suggesting an outlook. By their very nature, forward-looking information and statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks that predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking information and statements will not be achieved. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause the actual results to vary materially from the forward-looking information or statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: the volatility of oil and gas prices; production and development costs; capital expenditures; the imprecision of reserve and resource estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, natural gas and liquids; the Company's ability to replace and expand oil and gas reserves; environmental claims and liabilities; incorrect assessments of value when making acquisitions or dispositions; increases in debt service charges; the loss of key personnel; the marketability of production; defaults by third party operators; unforeseen title defects; fluctuations in foreign currency and exchange rates; inadequate insurance coverage; compliance with environmental laws and regulations; changes in tax and royalty laws; the Company's ability to access external sources of debt and equity capital; and the Company's ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities. Further information regarding these factors may be found under the headings "General Advisory", "Reserves and Resources Advisory" and "Risk Factors" in the Company's final Canadian prospectus dated July 2, 2013 available under the Company's profile on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and the final UK prospectus dated June 28, 2013 available on the Company's website (to non-Canadian viewers). Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive. When relying on these forward-looking statements to make decisions with respect to the Company, investors and others should also carefully consider information set forth in the section "Forward-Looking Statements" of the Company's prospectuses respecting the assumptions upon which the Company bases certain forward-looking information and the uncertainties inherent in such assumptions. The Company does not assume responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking information or statements and such information and statements should not be taken as guarantees of future outcomes. Subject to applicable securities laws, the Company does not undertake any obligation to revise this forward-looking information or these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. This cautionary statement expressly qualifies the forward-looking information and statements contained in this press release. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same level of confidence as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation.

For more information about the Company including further risk factors, please consult Caracal's public filings at www.sedar.com and for certain foreign investors at Caracal's website www.caracalenergy.com



SOURCE Caracal Energy Inc.

For further information:


Caracal Energy Inc.
Gary Guidry, President and Chief Executive Officer
Trevor Peters, Chief Financial Officer
[phone]

Longview Communications - Canadian Media Enquiries
Alan Bayless
Joel Shaffer
[phone]
[phone]

FTI Consulting - UK Media Enquiries
Ben Brewerton / Ed Westropp
+ 44 (0) 207 8313 3113
[e-mail]

[marvelman] 24/2/2014 09:25

Certainly looking after themselves with those options

[dukedosh] 07/2/2014 16:33

RBC Capital today:

Caracal Energy (LSE: CRCL; Outperform, 700p Price Target)
In the week commencing 17th February we expect Caracal to release of an updated Reserves Report. Given successes at Krim and a remapping of the Badila field we anticipate that Caracal's 2P reserves could have increased to ~100mmbbl, from 86mmbbl.

In addition management may provide an operating update. In early January Caracal was producing 12,000bbl/d as the company maximised the production potential of the Badila facilities. The 14,000bf/d EPF was operating at capacity at year-end but the nearby 11,000bf/d Southern Processing Terminal (SPT) is scheduled to be fully commissioned in early H1/14. We anticipate a steady increase in output from Badila through 2014, as the field utilises all the available processing capacity, and the company completes a new 40,000bf/d central processing facility in Q3/14.

Given that management is focusing rig time on development activity, we do not expect a result from the Bitanda-1 well test until Q2/14; we include upside/risk of +137p/-23p for a 90mmbbl prospect in our 710p/share Caracal PV12.5%.

[dukedosh] 06/2/2014 17:08

Caracal Energy news due this month:
Reserve update on 18th February 2014.
Presenting at RBC E&P Investor Lunch Series, London on February 26th 2014

[dukedosh] 05/2/2014 17:25

Next news catalyst here should be the reserves update due 18th February, according to RBC. That's too early for a news leak, it's just a fund seller as stated earlier. I'm adding at these low levels.

[valhamos] 05/2/2014 15:07

Had been looking into this a couple of weeks ago, was about to buy then the update took it higher so held off. Finally bought a few this morning at 409p

[marvelman] 05/2/2014 14:53

Clearly a significant seller here and the challenge is on to hold your nerve. The recent update did not indicate anything other than things are going to plan. Those directors and others that bought at £4.50 must be well cheesed off. Plenty of news flow to come.

[valhamos] 05/2/2014 14:42

Fall seems odd after a good update and after we seemed to passed through the worst of the general market volatility.

[dukedosh] 30/1/2014 16:38

RBC note earlier today:

Caracal (CRCL.L): Chad Chat

Our updated Caracal NAV is 710p/share; this PV12.5% comprises of a Tangible NAV of 460p and risked upside of 250p/share. The company is steadily growing production and cash flow, and pushing the Badila and Mangara developments 'up the value curve'; its portfolio also provides exposure to significant exploration upside.

Newsflow is set to increase from February, with the publication of a reserves update (upgrade?) and possibly the signing of a new RBL facility. Drilling news is set to pick up from April with the spudding of a well on a first appraisal well on Kibea.

Our NAV includes only the prospects that are scheduled to be drilled in the next 18 months; totally unrisked this campaign could add a further ~930p/share to our NAV.

Deliberately/prudently focusing on the bottom end of management's production guidance we calculate that the company will generate ~$215m of post tax cash flow. Combined with year-end 2013E cash of $180m and a final $100m Glencore carry payment, Caracal looks set to finance its 2014 exploration and development campaigns organically. Company guidance is 11-13,000b/d and $220-270m, respectively.

The market is very focused on production and cash flow growth, so any slip ups could be costly – Caracal is scheduled to delivery its first crude cargo in March. The company is exposed to any oil price weakness – a $10/bbl oil swing changes our PV12.5% by 15%.

[dukedosh] 30/1/2014 10:15

Good to see L&G and Fidelity buying into the story this and last week.

Directors and insiders have plenty of skin in the game, they piled in at 450p back in November.

Current share price looks real cheap under 450p, specially after reviewing 2014 guidance.

[dukedosh] 28/1/2014 09:53

A week old but worth the read if you haven't seen these.

RBC Capital Markets Note on 20.01.2014

Caracal Energy (CRCL.L): Encouragement, but more details required

We initially expect a muted share price reaction to today's update as water handling issues resulted
in slower than expected production growth from Badila (14,000b/d now targeted by month-end), and
additional data are required to assess the impact of the Bitanda-1 and Mangara-6 wells.
Downhole logs indicate the Bitanda-1 exploration well encountered 38m of net reservoir in an Upper
Cretaceous M sand and 66m meters in the Lower Cretaceous D sands. The company plans to test the
well in Q1/14. The 650mmbbl P10 case required oil to be encountered within numerous staked sands,
therefore we expect and any guidance to be towards the lower end of pre-drill estimates - we currently
include 36p/ share, risked, for a risked 140mmbbl (P50) prospect in our 733p/share Caracal NAV.
In December and January (to date) production has averaged 11,274b/d and output is currently averaging
12,000b/d. The year-end exit rate of 14,000b/d was not achieved as the development experienced water
handling issues; management says these challenges have been resolved with additional tankage and
the commissioning of the SPT. Caracal expects to produce 14,000b/d by the end of January and remains
on schedule for its first lifting in March 2014, some 560,000bbls. Mangara is due on stream in March.

RBC Capital Markets Note on 22.01.2014

Caracal Energy (CRCL.L): Site visit

We expect to 'refresh' our Caracal model on the back of this week's site visit to Chad. The company
has made tangible progress at Badila and Mangara since our last visit in 2012. Recent 2014 guidance
is in line with our current forecasts, so any revisions are likely to be to our long-term view on the two
developments, the Kibea discovery, which is scheduled to be appraised in Q2/14, the Krim discovery
and a reassessment of the 2014-15 drilling plan.

We have today revised our NAV to reflect drilling news from Bitanda-1; the well encountered more sand
than anticipated and a lack of (sealing) shales prevented the formation of traps. However, two zones -
the M Sands and D sands - warrant testing and each of these zones could hold ~50mmbbl+. The key risk
with these targets remains hydrocarbon charge, as it is difficult to distinguish on logs between oil and
the fresh formation water. We include upside/risk of +125p/-31p per share for the ~90mmbbl Bitanda
structure in our revised 728p/share NAV, which is down from 733p/share.

[dukedosh] 28/1/2014 09:39

Barclays Reiterates "Outperform" Rating for Caracal Energy (CRCL)

Caracal Energy Inc. Barclays restated their outperform rating on shares of Caracal Energy (LON:CRCL) in a report issued on Friday, Analyst Ratings Net reports. They currently have a GBX 670 ($11.04) target price on the stock.

[melody9999] 20/1/2014 22:34

Hi MM - you may be right but I'm hoping for better than that. At present oilers are out of fashion but I think the economic recovery will see growing demand for oil - then those companies such as CRCL will be well placed. I am sure funders who took part in the place will be looking for larger gains than 10%.

[marvelman] 20/1/2014 14:18

A very quiet board here Melody but glad to see you on it.Low profile company keeps doing what it says on the lable and what seems to have a solid relationship with Glen.Fully funded but the placing funders will likely be happy with with 10% return from the 4.50 they paid so I don not expect the share price to be able to head up past £5.00 in the medium term.

[melody9999] 20/1/2014 07:46

All seems on track and looks like a busy year then

2014 Guidance

The Company's forecasted work program for 2014 is as follows:

- Drill and complete 20 to 22 development wells;

- Drill 8 to 10 exploration wells;

- Commission the Mangara pipeline and CPF;

- Expand the Mangara and Badila processing facilities;

- Commence the FEED and land acquisition for the Doseo pipeline.

The expected costs and production from the above program as are follows:

- Production: 22,000 to 26,000 gross bopd (11,000 to 13,000 working
interest bopd);

- Capital: $765 to $845 million gross ($375 to $425 million net to
Caracal and after the $100 million GlencoreXstrata plc carry);

- Annual funds flow from operations: $220 to $270 million, $1.50 to
$1.85 per share;

- Q4 2014 annualized funds flow from operations: $439 to $480 million,
$3.00 to $3.28 per share.

[newtothisgame3] 18/1/2014 22:05

There are two others that we talk about quite often with our international investment community.Both are listed in London, Caracal Energy Inc. [CRCL:LSE].Mercom Oil Sands [MMO:LSE]-

[melody9999] 22/12/2013 23:56

worth noting that on 5th December, 7 directors bought £1M total shares at 450p a pop. you can buy at their prices right now.... and follow their belief / knowledge that the share price will increase over time.

[11023154] 11/12/2013 09:56

Ftse250 entering

[gazza12] 20/11/2013 09:24

Dead duck this - i'm done.

[gazza12] 08/11/2013 16:21

Don't like the late sell off.