Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[medieval blacksmith] 17/5/2022 11:52

It was never likely to be the case that earnings covered the dividend in the early years. This is a startup company.

[pyemckay] 13/5/2022 16:16

Another downgrade today for this years numbers . About 22p EPS now. Doesn’t cover the forecast dividend of nearly 30p .Really disappointing but as its involved in insurance it requires a lot of luck.

[topvest] 25/4/2022 20:30

Yes, 37p EPS forecast I think. Short-term its a bit disappointing. Hopefully, H2 starts to improve as they start hitting critical mass.

[pyemckay] 25/4/2022 20:00

CRE dont announce downgrades/upgrades themselves. They do it through their broker but it costs to see these notes.I get any changes to the forecasts delivered every morning to my inbox. The cost is worth getting updated forecasts. Profits for this year were forecast at $100m only 4 months ago. They have been downgraded 4 times now to $79m.
I still think its a decent business hence why I am still a shareholder.

cheers

[thetrotsky] 25/4/2022 11:30

Four profit downgrades? Where? In their February preliminary results they said:

"In our Trading Update on 19 January, we reported a strong start to 2022 with $268.2 million of estimated ultimate premiums written, an increase of 74% from 2021. Net rate increases (including the impact of claims inflation, changes in exposure and other relevant terms and conditions) in the 1 January portfolio were +5%. Pricing and terms and conditions continue to improve across our core classes which we expect this to continue throughout 2022. Management believes that Conduit Re remains on track to deliver on its five-year business plan."

I've not seen any subsequent annoucments from CRE to suggest any downgrades

[pyemckay] 09/4/2022 15:58

the profits for the coming year have been downgraded 4 times in quick succession. I have a decent holding here and feel it wont be rated correctly until it has proven growth in next year or so. Early days but director buys always welcome.

[richardly] 09/4/2022 00:09

What? No postings for Conduit (CRE); someone's got to know something about this? And why it's not doing so well? In spite of those director buy's. To say the least. Any info or analysis would be more than welcome!

[professor john koestler] 10/11/2021 12:48

And huge previous buys by the FD, ex Lancashire.

[houseofpain1] 09/11/2021 09:17

A few director buys in the last few days post trading update including most important a significant buy from the CEO announced this morning. Follow the money...

[professor john koestler] 30/9/2021 16:14

Started building a holding here.

[pixtel] 14/9/2021 14:37

Anyone know why this has slipped below the IPO price? Bermuda corporate tax rate pressure maybe?

[riverman77] 04/6/2021 12:03

Also added a bit here as been a bit soft recently - probably just too under the radar for most investors so not expecting any fireworks here, but confident this will do very well over next couple of years. I agree insurers such as this look a good steady place to invest in right now. Also hold BPM which is a fund of mainly insurance companies, which are all performing well, and trading at big discount.

[topvest] 03/6/2021 12:57

I've doubled up. With all the hot money flying around decent insurers are being overlooked.

[riverman77] 27/1/2021 23:33

Yes, targeting a 5-6% dividend payout from this year. If they deliver 15% ROE, coupled with a rise in the price/book value, you could see a very decent return over next 2-3 years. Should also be largely uncorrelated to the wider market/economy which is another attraction.

[topvest] 27/1/2021 18:15

Yes, it’s certainly interesting. They have put together a quality team straight away and have already underwritten lots of business so should be profitable and pay a dividend in year 1. I purchased because Aberforth backed the IPO. That was good enough for me and so I did less due diligence than normal.

[riverman77] 27/1/2021 11:27

Thanks for setting up. It's been mentioned in a few recent factsheets from some very decent fund managers - Miton, JO Hambro and Merchants, so I've had my eye on it.
Sounds very interesting proposition - insurance rates have increased a lot over past few years, and especially since Covid, as capital has left industry. Future returns from this point of the cycle have previously been very attractive (around 20%and ROE). However, the listed names in this space trade at around 1.5x book value and have a lot of liabilities (existing claims) which limits their ability to capitalise on the opportunities. Conduit allows you to get in at book value and with a clean balance sheet. Sounds very interesting in theory. I guess as long as start up costs aren't too high and they get the right people/infrastructure in place it should do well.

[topvest] 11/1/2021 19:24

Thought I would start a thread on this new insurer. I swapped out from Helios Underwriting PLC into this today as I think it has better prospects. Thanks to Aberforth Partners LLP and their latest factsheet for bring it to my attention, as I seem to have missed this listing. If its a good enough IPO for Aberforth to back, then its good enough for me. Excellent industry veteran board, Ken Randall as a Non Exec and chunky fundraise in December looks good. Any thoughts?

[toffeeman] 23/12/2016 09:18

I feel sorry for all those managers who bought options at 160!

[rivaldo] 23/12/2016 08:27

Farewell then Creston:



You brought me reasonable profits, much boredom and disappointment overall. I had hoped that your blue chip client base and decent fundamentals would bring in first stronger growth and latterly a competing bid, but sadly it was not meant to be.

On to the next bid :o))

[rivaldo] 25/11/2016 12:16

Interesting to see the mid-price now above the 125p offer price. Hopefully indicative of something happening...

[rivaldo] 18/11/2016 11:55

Exactly Graham. As I said in an earlier post, DBAY are not a trade buyer - they are an "investment value advisor".

I daresay if someone else came in with a decently higher offer they wouldn't be averse to taking the money and running.

[grahamburn] 18/11/2016 10:49

But with DBAY already holding a significant amount, the chance of another offer is relatively low - unless DBAY are playing the market and trying to flush out an offer high enough to make it worth their while to unload.