Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 27/6/2018 13:02

Offerman,

Bonnasse wells are likely targeting GM, Forest, or some such. So therefore designed to produce from those shallow zones. They're probably all years old too like Goudron and Icacos. Some may be in good enough shape to deepen a little but again unlikely capable of drilling Herrera. As LK said Herrera wells will be $2-4m per well, why risk a $4m well by drilling it from an old one just to save a couple of hundred $k. Not worth the risk in my book and also unlikely appropriate well design (wrong primary casing diameters etc. As far as I can remember there was a Herrera well drilled in western T&T and it was 11,000ft so much much deeper than Bonasse. Herrera in central or Eastern T&T may not be as deep, not something that I looked into.

Regards,
Ed.

[offerman] 27/6/2018 12:53

Hi Ed Our last two posts crossed double posted so apologies if my last post asks questions to which your had some answers

[offerman] 27/6/2018 12:51

Hi Ed Thanks for answering my question about deepening Goudron wells. Thanks for your informative answer which knocks my question to kingdom come. Maybe they could deepen bonasse further than c sands and enter Herrera or would internal casing not be sufficient for that too? A fresh new drill right from the off then looks favourite for 3 tier zonal exploration on SWP then keep increase production from bonasse from c sands.Will bonasse c sands decline less thank Goudron ? Will there still be the sand issue kicking up on bonasse? Will bopd increase much from where it is now with stimulation in relation to Goudron?

[edgein] 27/6/2018 12:51

So in other words if they were to drill a deep well on Goudron to the Herrera once they get the rights from Petrotrin for such a well then they'd only save a few hundred K by using a suitable old well (if there is one). Better to drill one from scratch with a suitable well design. Don't focus on that though, better to focus on BOLT licences and the first target likely to be one of those 200-400mmbbls STOOIP targets. That's the best place to focus your energy. Drilling under Goudron would be years ahead. I can see LK doing a couple of SWP wells on BOLT, then after 2021 perhaps drilling a deep one on Icacos or Bonasse (Herrera not C-sands). Perhaps after that he'll chase Goudron deeps, until he starts talking about those or the Goudron lost well I'm ruling those out. More bang for his buck going for a large likely high pressure Herrera than spending too much on Goudron re-drilling or deeps. It'll be interesting to see if he gets some deeper pay on Bonnase in the mean time though or one of these material acquisitions. If he lands a big one in Colombia and/or Suriname and doubles or more our reserves the deals could snowball. Its why this is one of the highest upside oilers on AIM not just among the T&T companies.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 27/6/2018 12:42

Fellas, its all down to well design. Most of the new wells on Goudron are two strings some may be three. You'd need at least another 2 casing point to get to the Herrera and by then diameter may be no more than a geoprobe rather than an expo or deve well. C sands are something like 1500ft, haven't looked back, Herrera is likely 6000ft-11,000ft perhaps even deeper. Unlikely well design on these shallow wells could support a deep multi string well. A deep well is likely to have a casing point below the GM another below the C-sands so that they can be developed similtaneously or kept behind pipe while drilling to Herrera. So they'd need several more casing points to TD. They wouldn't risk keeping long sections of hundreds of feet of C-sands pay open hole until the Herrera that's for sure. Anyway this is all a rather moot point as LK hasn't ever mentioned drilling plans for Goudron deeps. He has however mentioned being in talks in Colombia and Suriname and deeping wells on Bonasse (likely down to C-sands or something rather than Herrera). They or possible targets in the SWP are more relevant than chasing the large light oil field feeding Goudron, it'll be for a later day.

Roseann,

You seem to be assuming that I hadn't looked at TRIN or TXP, wrong again. I've held practically all AIM oilers at one point or another, well the ones that have been worth holding. I've been investing in this sector since I was a teenager, so that's about 26 years now. There are still a few good oilers out there, CERP is definitely one of them due to one RNS is all it'll take for the transformation (possibly Colombia, possibly Suriname or we may even have to wait until next year for the SWP to do it). Will you get a lucky spike before dilution on TXP, who knows AIM is still a peculiar place and often folks don't see what's right under their nose until its too late and they've went off to chase some other duff and miss out. TXP like TRIN its only a matter of time before drilling costs, production decline and their debt catches up with them. The worst thing of all about them is their liquidity. It took me 3 times before I could get the volume to sell my holding there and it was on a volume spike too. At least after a placing their liquidity might improve. Those two should follow LK's lead and get some assets in Colombia and their progressive tax regime. Did you wisely read that link I provided. Year on year to 2014 Colombia has increased its production and reserves and has massive reserves yet to be discovered.

Regards,
Ed.

[h van der h] 27/6/2018 11:18

TG
very true! although i did pick up by chance EQT from his posting history, nice little earner, albeit left too early..

[the guardian] 27/6/2018 10:37

Just because he says it doesn't mean it will happen, although I have my fingers, toes and eyes crossed, so hope it does

[h van der h] 27/6/2018 09:36

wish i was mates with bigmj, i'd follow his footsteps very closely i think:-)

[nexus7] 27/6/2018 09:24

From bigmj Today 08:34
-------------------------------------

RE: cheap top up opportunity

Like.i said before I have never sold a single share, I have my original holding plus started adding more , trust me what you say is laughable people at my level of holding don’t sell out at 5p to buy back in the low 4s , if you did your homework properly you might see that I have justbdont a much larger deal and made Circa the full MC of CERP in profit , I don’t mess about for small sums of money and am expecting 25p plus before selling any shares

[offerman] 26/6/2018 18:28

Feeling your pain TGI bought loads at 3.6-3.4 old money Then more 5.75p new money Then 5 ooThen more 4.75I'm going to get more if I can when account sorted as encryption issues today Hopefully top up 4.3 if I can

[carpadium] 26/6/2018 17:46

TG appreciate how you feel, we're at the lowest price since Sept '17 having started this year at 5.4 bid.

Keep the faith, LK is meeting his adoring faithful at the AGM 13/7 and has the habit of having a fully prepared rabbit to pull out of his hat on the day or just prior.
We'll come good, it's just the restless pi$$ed off brigade moving on (with quite probably Lind not helping matters).

[h van der h] 26/6/2018 17:45

From lse earlier

Today 16:40 Price: 4.40
bigmj 1,529 posts
RE: cheap top up opportunity
today could be a great cheap top up opportunity, I wonder who the large trades might have been ;-)

No doubt not everyone feels so happy about it 🤔

[h van der h] 26/6/2018 17:35

“Well deepening is re-drilling into an already existing well in order to find a deeper more productive reservoir. Sometimes a previously unproductive well can be deepened in order to reach a location with higher flow” “Not all wells can be deepened depending on their diameter and how they were drilled and cased. If a well can be deepened it should be cleaned and then drilling procedures would be similar to drilling any other well except the beginning of the well is already completed.” “A well that is going to be deepened should have a large enough diameter required for the new well parameters needed; widening a well would not be practical. Reasons for why the existing well was abandoned should be known before trying to deepen it because there may be lost equipment or collapses down hole that would make deepening it extremely difficult.”

Something that LK has indicated will happen on bonnase and if Deep license becomes available at Goudron why not! But not until swp kicks in imo..

[the guardian] 26/6/2018 17:26

Everything is just guesswork until we get the next quarterly update so I hope we get the full story about what has been going on. Low cost workovers are not low cost if we are paying for staff and equipment and not seeing any material gain in production. I bought my last tranche of shares after the open offer finished at 6.4p. I can't tell you how happy I am to see the share price dripping further and further down. :-(((

[offerman] 26/6/2018 15:26

What about deepening current Goudron wells instead in to the reservoir beneath ? ( license permission )

[edgein] 26/6/2018 14:52

Offerman,

It all depends on how patient LK is and what he's planned and what the owners of the assets want too. Your ideas are fine, however it doesn't tie in with the company statement in that they are confident they can complete one acquisition in '18. We're not drilling SWP until H1 '19. Even more free cashflow in the kitty by then even if Goudron does no more than 600bopd let alone 800-1400bopd planned, up to that point just more cheap workovers. Heaven forbid that happens with no debt and a modest work programme Roseann will be throwing a hissy fit. Perhaps spend a little on deepening one or two on Bonasse wells, who knows what they'll produce by then. Live within their means and all that, much less risk than those others.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 26/6/2018 14:44

Roseann,

Then want after Goudron, Icacos, Bonasse, SWP-1? More workovers, more reactivation, more production, more cash flow, perhaps SWP-2, stranger things have happened in the oil sector. Potentially a material acquisition which means material cash flow especially in an oil production friendly country like Colombia. As explained to you on here previously $10s of millions of USD buys production and reserves in SA. Crown Point for example bought around 1700boepd from AEY and around 10-11mmboe for around $20-25m. Similar in Colombia would do nicely, or Suriname, either, or preferably both.

Don't tar all these companies with the same brush. CERP has £600k debt, soon to be zero, those others have debt on the verge of being out of control, although TRIN have averted disaster for now and may become self financing in the years ahead, but may not if history repeats itself there. CERP's free cash is reinvested, those others use free cash to pay off debt. They use debt to drill wells.

Regards,
Ed.

[offerman] 26/6/2018 14:41

Now you have hot something that was my previous thoughts in some of my comments before . If we could drill first one alone hit the jackpot then any material deal after that would be in a much better placed position to achieve at a higher share price so that 20–% purchase becomes so much more valuable to CERP holders from the buyer. Ironically I had also mentioned about giving away at a guess 20% so in time tune. Personally the later the better imho for a material deal to maximise capital for us and as you said quoting LK pretty much oil everywhere so one of the three zones could get lucky 20mbo or more maybe much more

[edgein] 26/6/2018 14:35

Here's a bit of light reading for you fellas, its worth noting too that TAQA took over Shell's NS assets (before Roseann has a conniption fit) I'm not saying they'll raise $bns to take over Shell Colombia, but one or two old marginals might do. I wonder if LK has still some of his old Shell contacts to take a peek in Colombia. Shell bought Occidental's large fields in Colombia near the Vene border many many years ago. But this link will provide you fellas with some light reading as to why LK's looking at Colombia:



Regards,
Ed.