Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[12bn] 18/7/2018 09:21

offerman18 Jul '18 - 09:15 - 5329 of 5329
0 0 0
Morning Holly

Recently you and I have been touching on the subject of the big seller.

I just wanted to know your opinion of who you think could be selling as there’s been so many sales over the last 2 to 3 months for outnumbering any buys and it does look like the seller isn’t finished yet.

But the strange thing is no notifications have come up at all.

Who do you think is offloading all of these shares?/////// Good question,who indeed could it be? Schroders,Lind,DL,NR,or ANOther?

[offerman] 18/7/2018 09:15

Morning HollyRecently you and I have been touching on the subject of the big seller. I just wanted to know your opinion of who you think could be selling as there's been so many sales over the last 2 to 3 months for outnumbering any buys and it does look like the seller isn't finished yet. But the strange thing is no notifications have come up at all. Who do you think is offloading all of these shares?

[12bn] 18/7/2018 08:48

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. I did warn you all. Mystic 12bn strikes again! :)

[arrynillson] 18/7/2018 08:46

12bn - if you are such an expert on shorting how come you didn't recognise the signs leading up to the KOD 0.13 Placing - you kept urging people to buy that Shyte right up to the announcement claiming the spiralling share price decline was presenting better opportunities - what's worse is we told you daily and you just wouldn't listen - very sad 12bn!

[12bn] 18/7/2018 08:06

08:02:18 4.8000 8,000 O 4.8000 4.9000 Sell 0 8,000/////MMs only paying the bare minimum right on the bid,I guess that the bid will drop to 4.7p soon. With little news expected here for a long time the share price is likely to drift ever lower imo.

[12bn] 18/7/2018 08:00

Never heard of short selling Northpole2? What a fool you are! There is a big seller out there,eos.

[offerman] 18/7/2018 07:21

Thanks JCGLet's hope it brings new investors onboard.

[northpole2] 17/7/2018 23:11

You idiot again 12bn. The deal has not been completed (read the RNS!) so Steeldrum's shareholders won't get their 92m shares until it does and CERP will have to issue a RNS when that happens and update their public shares in issue on their website. How can anyone sell shares they haven't got yet and could be months away? Bit risk that.
Surely even you with your continual conspiracy theories might be able to work that one out. Put your brain in gear before spouting total and utter rubbish. Again! Now that you know the answer to that no doubt you'll come up with another theory. Can't wait. No doubt it might involve the word Lind. Yawn.

[jcgswims] 17/7/2018 21:54

From npwharf

RE: FeedbackToday 18:48 Lse are recording event so video will be up in 24 hours. Leo going through the a selection of agm slides. Strong performance from him but no new news.

From JohnnyG12

Investors Evening..Today 20:35 Strong performance as expected/always from LK. The majority of the presentation was going over AGM points.. however a few questions thrown in about M&A with companies such as TRIN, TXP etc going forth in 2019 but he didn’t say much apart from his big grin. Really think 2019 is the year for CERP. Also, worth noting (because I never quite understood this) but different parts of Goudron have different tax regimes and that as long as the WTI is about 61 it’s all smiles for CERP.

One of the viewers collapsed half way through Malcy’s presentation so the speach was paused. Hope his ok!

[plasybryn] 17/7/2018 20:26

Presentation tonight. Feedback?

[offerman] 17/7/2018 20:14

Nice post Carp after with that I knew we wouldn't see 80 p as there has to be sacrifices I was envisaging 50 possibility because of SWP came in big 20-400mbo per structure possible and 14 identifies so far who's to say what could happen with that company changer to the spI'd be very very content with 33p

[carpadium] 17/7/2018 16:27

Northpole2 ...Why is everyone so apparently depressed?...let me assure you I am not!

offer, replying to 5313, whilst issuance of shares is the chosen way to fund acquisitions, albeit of the smaller variety, future larger deals may well involve debt but that's not to say it will be non-accretive to shareholders. It will be judged on what value it brings to the company and therefore us shareholders and should not be feared. The latest Steeldrum deal, let alone BOLT, strike me as tremendously complex in structure with a whole host of parties to satisfy. No mean feat. But with the deals to date it's hard not to have confidence in LK and TH coming up trumps in future dealings.

The target, as we all know, is to make CERP a £500m company in 2-4 years. I have always worked on 1 billion shares being in issue at this valuation date but, if they double from now to one and a half billion to reach their target market cap then a share price of 33p in that timeframe from the current 5p will still be a remarkably good investment and one you'd find hard to achieve elsewhere imo.

[h van der h] 17/7/2018 16:17

You could look at it another way, south erin and cory moruga snowcap could be the fields LK would like to keep, although Predator had visions of purchasing CMH as well as TI. so off loading TI for cash is a means to an end.. definitely not crystal clear deal going on here for us sh'ers to understand without the full ins and outs of the deal. worth noting there is a Touchstone/Primera link to those fields two fields

[the guardian] 17/7/2018 15:44

Without rose tinted specs, the following scenario keeps going through my head..........

At some time before the end of the year, we complete the Steeldrum deal.
92 million shares are issued. The share price may or may not increase. In all honesty, some people may see the additional shares as a reason to sell or buy, who knows!

Predator still has a legal right to take the IT acquisition from us for $42 million, so do we spend money from production to start working on our new acquisition or do we leave IT alone until Predator no longer has the option to buy? At the end of the day, the sale price is fixed so adding additional production won't result in a higher fee from Predator, should they wish to take IT from us.

Come February, Predator decide that they want to buy IT after all. We now have $42 million and still have the additional 92 million shares issued.

At this point, all looks good because we now have the cash to spend on another deal without issuing more shares.

Unfortunately, Steeldrum decide that they no longer want to hang onto the shares because we no longer own IT and so they start selling them. 92 million shares could cause havoc to the share price

Alternatively, they like Leo's way of working and so retain their shares to sell way in the future. Everyone happy?

I simply do not like the idea that there is a possibility of clinching and then losing the deal. Surely we could have found a deal that was more robust?

[12bn] 17/7/2018 15:35

15:10:23 4.8000 150 O 4.8000 5.0000 Sell 104,687 218,933
14:22:30 4.8000 200,000 O 4.8000 5.0000 Sell /////// Is the 200k sell a one off or just the first installment of many more? With 92m 4.7p shares recently issued it could be either,we shall see.

[holly day] 17/7/2018 15:10

Northpole2, Please don't misunderstand. I have never once said I don't approve of the acquisitions thus far, nor have I been against making acquisitions through placings, especially as I see everything done so far is designed to be value enhancing. Hopefully those that expected 80p for a 1/2 bill mcap will now see differently.

The Dilution topic will always divide opinions. My concern is that % holding allows a % participation in any voting, dividends and discounted placings. Depending on how much dilution occurs, my participation will reduce accordingly. However, if value enhancement is achieved through growth and higher SP, it becomes almost academic.

[northpole2] 17/7/2018 14:48

Holly

But I think the market automatically factors in a deal from Day 1 to some extent, whilst providing a certain amount of risking on deal completion. LK was clear at the AGM he was comfortable this deal would complete and even then he wouldn't wait until then to get after their operations, he will chase this very soon. The market isn't ignoring the Steeldrum deal or the fact 92m shares will come into play upon completion, I believe they are already in play to some degree. Two other observations:

There is always a debate about "dilution". I've worked with investors who like to hold a certain % of a company. They like to hold a minimum of x% at all times. I knew one who would rather hold 30% of a company with a MC of $50m rather than 15% of the same company with a MC of $200m (a macho thing). That is total madness. Do the maths but some people simply want a certain % number, makes them feel great when in reality I'd much rather have the latter and more value. Schroders will be in this for value, they won't be concerned their 14% is reduced to 12% if their value holding increases and the chance of growing further is increased.

Using your dilution logic, CERP would never ever acquire ANY new assets. To buy something (car, house, oil company) you either use cash in hand/savings, or you raise new cash (equity/loans) or use some other means like shares - or a mixture of all of these. But you don't get things for free, certainly not producing barrels.
You can grow organically but that can take time so to acquire something to grow faster you have to pay for it somehow. Presumably, CERP wants to use its cash for production growth, clearly didn't want to do a new raise (a placing would have resulted in real dilution, share price at a discount) so they used shares they had for no cash upfront. The alternative would have been to buy nothing and just grow organically. This acquisition de-risks, provides more assets to grow and gives CERP more credibility in Trinidad and the market. There has to be some sort of "dilution" if you are to acquire new things ... money for these doesn't come free. It's a question of finding the right balance when acquiring things. But my view on "dilution" to grow seems to be different from other people. It has its place at the right time to stimulate the growth we all seek.

[holly day] 17/7/2018 14:14

Northpole2, Sorry, but I don't see it as 'apparently depressed' posting on this BB. It's a debate to find out how each holder perceives things going forward, short, medium and long term.

I don't see anyone saying it's NOT a good deal. We all accept it as an excellent deal...... as accelerating this acquisition, I am sure Leo will want to pull all stops to bring it forward to our benefit.

I am not sure I agree with your "How is this deal dilutive" comment and you go on to talk about production numbers...not sure what production has to do with it. Dilution by definition is diluting your ownership of the company. It's only an SPA at this stage, so no shares issued. However, once the deal is completed, the issuance of shares will dilute everyone's holding, including Schorders'. I don't have an issue with preserving cash and using shares to grow the company. However, if there was ever a discounted placing, due to my reduced (diluted) holding, my entitlement would be lower, as are my voting rights. So, you can't escape from the fact that is IS dilutive.

"The fact the share price is higher than it was before the deal".. what?. Obviously the market clearly has failed to grasp how good this deal is as you say because the share price has hardly moved from the recent range. The volume also speaks volume, if you catch my drift! Three deals so far this year and the share price trend??

I am not counting any chickens yet. Let's see how long before this deal is wrapped up. I am sure it WILL get done some time. Past record in T & T for approvals etc is nothing to write home about.

[garnhiem80] 17/7/2018 13:52

Mark.. id imagine data the company is gathering in other reservoir sections which all lead back to the SWP will also assist in further developments! Re: well completions, rate of work overs, secondary recovering etc!

Re snowcap we’ve heard from the Goudron field that the initial flow has an effect of potential secondary recovery! We already know what decline rates are like in Trinidad!

Like Leo said the Steeldrum acquisition is a stepping stone!

[offerman] 17/7/2018 13:50

Holly nothing to debate Have a read of my posts again as some of what you mentioned I had already mentioned with regards to dilution etc I also mention about the material deal too. Have a read and you'll see I'mIn the same camp

[northpole2] 17/7/2018 13:26

My goodness, you are a depressing lot. Do you actually believe that LK will wait until late this year until he chases the extra barrels on the new Steeldrum assets? He will probably have ops people moving on that in Trinidad already, he won't wait until formal completion. He mentioned a 1,000+ bopd production company by late year and he will chase that now. How is this deal dilutive as they have added 5.6m barrels of reserves for only around $1 per barrel? Look at the numbers, that is a fantastic deal in any metric comparison. And for no cash up-front. The fact the share price is higher than it was before the deal (even with an extra 92m shares in play) suggests it is seen as accretive, CERP's market cap is now suitably higher. The de-risking introduced with 5 producing fields now (5!!), Bonasse activity which has started, chasing extra barrels at Icacos as well as ongoing Goudron activities means there will be a LOT of action. That's before we mention the SWP. LK is ticking things off his list and won't be hanging around. And he's put in an insurance policy through the Lind facility... which is basically a relatively low cost loan facility, admittedly convertible at the lenders call but only at 8.1p/share. If they ever convert any loans drawn, then that's fine as our share price will have almost doubled by that time. LK seems to have all bases covered and real growth potential. Why is everyone so apparently depressed?

[mark of the rushes] 17/7/2018 12:46

Garnhiem80, this is from the latest rns:

"Upon Field Development approval, the existing Snowcap-1 will be re-instated as the first development well and further development drilling will follow. During an extended well test in 2015, Snowcap-1 averaged 120 bopd."

I wonder what happened between 2010 and 2015.

2010...The zone was then flow tested over a six (6) day period on a three-point test, producing 37 degree API gravity oil at a rate stabilizing around 578 barrels per day and a gas rate of 4.6 MMcf/d (total of 1,345 barrel of oil equivalent per day at a 6:1 conversion).

[holly day] 17/7/2018 12:39

Carpadium/offerman,

here's my rationale behind my post.

1. We are (if not already) in the 'dip' part of the projection curve. I suspect annual shut-downs/maintenance, etc.

2. Because of above, the 3rd 1/4 production will be either as per 2nd 1/4 or most likely lower.

3. Unless WF results add to the numbers, Goudron work overs alone will make negligible difference in next two 1/4's.

4. Cash in hand is already down and with the maintenance schedule and additional expenses required to complete the formalities of acquisition, I am prepared to bet a bottle of beer(!) that LIND facility will kick in this year, despite it being arranged as an insurance. That will further dilute the share price

5. Bannase is only JUST being worked on and Icacos (no firm timing), so not expecting much, though may be some capex involved.


Therefore, IMO, all eyes on next year when SteelDrum is amalgamated, Goudron WF, Icacos and Bonnase all adding to the numbers.

Yes, we may get some buying before next year in anticipation, even Schroders will need to buy more to retain their % holding, or declare a reduced holding once SteelDrum have been issues 12 odd % of company shares.

Also, the above assumes there's no more acquisitions in 2018. If another opp arises, then 'accretive' acquisition can only be 'buy with shares', preserving cash.


BTW, throw POO in to the equation, which is not looking healthy at the mo.

Again, ALL IMO, NAI. Happy to debate.

[offerman] 17/7/2018 11:53

Morning CarpSnap As I was writing my post and posted it on here I noticed your one saying the same thing about a catalyst could be a material deal. Do agree with Holly's post not much else will shift this this side of Christmas unless a surprise upturn in production from current assets or newly taken over. I also agree with you that material deal could help but I'm just really confused how they will fund such a deal as there will have to be dilation issuance of more shares or debt facility ?