Coats Share Discussion Threads

[manurere] 29/8/2023 08:42

Yes, Friday's trading did see a big dump. But three observations:
1. There has not yet been any notification of a change in major shareholders' holdings. This implies that those responsible for the dump are on the fringe.
2. There appears to have been no shortage of buyers in the low 70s; further, by the end of Friday's trading the share price was moving back up.
3. I know that it is early, but thus far Tuesday's trading suggests that buyers see the share as good value at around 74p.

As EI has often noted, this share does jump around a bit, but on Friday's and Tuesday's trading, there is little indication that the share price is going to sink back into the mid-60s.

[theoriginalwonderstuff] 28/8/2023 13:33

Agree EI...Anything lower than 65 is a pretty good bet if there isn't anything materially affecting the outlook...

[essentialinvestor] 27/8/2023 12:19

Around 67/68 is a a nice entry point - on the proviso trading continues
to develop inline.

[theoriginalwonderstuff] 27/8/2023 12:08

If this drops any further I wouldn't be averse to buying a few... Yo yo's nicely with a margin of 10% to be made...

[my retirement fund] 25/8/2023 16:27

Big dump today

[essentialinvestor] 16/8/2023 06:14

SP UP over 16% YTD, in a tough market. As mentioned it moves around a fair bit.

[manurere] 16/8/2023 05:22

I was also surprised. Tuesday's trading was quite solid in terms of both volume and support for a 77p+ share price. Such trading suggests to me that some bigger players dive in when they perceive the share price to be too low. Brokers' forecasts keep suggesting a peak between 80p and 105p. That noted and even though I am bullish on the longer term trend, I am not confident that 77p will be sustained over the rest of this week. I am expecting the share price to drop back to low 70s by closing on Friday. My own horizon for some real movement beyond 100p now remains after the results for either FY2028 or FY2029.

But, as I have observed previously, when it comes to Coats I now have a long track record of getting my projections wrong.

[justiceforthemany] 15/8/2023 19:33

Very surprised by this move up.

[manurere] 02/8/2023 02:33

I am, as EI knows well, a long time, bullish Coats investor. My partner and I each have, for private investors, quite large holdings.

I was very pleased with the half year results, given the Q1 report. As EI has noted, costs continue to be trimmed, acquisition integration seems to be on track, and market share is growing.

My particular focus is on performance materials, rather than footwear and apparel. Over the past decade I have watched every video and studied every statement Coats has produced on performance materials, including industrial materials. This is cutting edge manufacturing with good margins. It also provides some insulation from the ups and downs of consumer spending. I believe that the medium term outlook for performance/industrial materials is very, very positive.

As for Tuesday's trading, on opening the share price dropped a couple of pence on small volumes, but then the smarter money arrived and the price went up. That buying might have over-reached a little, but I suspect that this time we have left 70p and below behind us. (Mind you, I've said that before and ended up with egg on my face!).

Finally, while it is only 15%, the increase in the interim dividend tells us that a very conservative board--when it comes to rewarding shareholders--is confident that Coats is on track to be able to sustain regular, small increases in dividends. I am confident that we will hit US5 cents a share this decade, probably in FY2028 or FY2029, but maybe earlier.

If you own Coats shares, hang on to them. If you are thinking of buying, jump in.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2023 15:43

Dave, if you have any current views on SDG would be interested to hear on the SDG
board, tempted to buy a few for a longer term tuck away. Might well be taken
out at some point, but a highly speculative reason to buy obvs.

Apologies as off topic.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2023 15:38

Would say look at the YTD share price and what happened following the last update,
SP in the low 80's a bit before this.

May be some relief not an out and out profit warning?.

[justiceforthemany] 01/8/2023 15:36

Still holding but surprised this is up today

[theoriginalwonderstuff] 01/8/2023 15:33

I'm not invested here at the moment but lurk quietly as have dipped in and out here previously.I'm confused by the share price response today in response to what seem, ostensibly atleast, to be sub-par results with a potentially negative outlook. Am I missing something??

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2023 15:23

Dave, $10 million on extra efficiency savings and they say.. continue to
take market share - that's difficult to confirm unless a company analyst.

Assume COA have some data to back that up. Significant revenue fall if
it's just de-stocking.

As the rating is modest may be reduced expectations already in the price?.

[disc0dave45] 01/8/2023 14:58

Although in line they are now saying it will be at the lower end of forecasts, and the share price goes up!, I must be missing something?.

[essentialinvestor] 11/7/2023 19:13

Need to see the H1 before considering buying back, net debt and how the (multiple)
recent acquisitions are bedding in. Not overly impressed by the last update as mentioned.

[justiceforthemany] 11/7/2023 10:29

10% down in a week.
Glad I sold majority of my position.

[manurere] 14/6/2023 09:08

Given how often my bullish sentiment has turned out to be misplaced, I should stay off this chat for a few months. However, thus far this week's trading has been quite encouraging. It looks like we have some steady interest from buyers and no indication of any large sellers. Further, given previous suggestions of well-informed, possibly insider trading, one can only infer from the steadily rising share price that Coats's Q2 sales are tracking well. The litmus test will be the half year results. These are usually released in the first week of August.

[manurere] 31/5/2023 05:49

It's a buy right now. I just banked my dividend. With a very positive exchange rate in my favour, I remain very happy with my holding and anticipate better returns, year-on-yea, for the rest of the decade.

[theoriginalwonderstuff] 30/5/2023 09:35

At what price do we think this becomes a buy??

[essentialinvestor] 18/5/2023 23:52

Medium to longer term may still be positive,
just highlighting the short term performance.

[manurere] 18/5/2023 23:41

EI, thanks for the analysis. It certainly is a stinking blip. And it caught me by surprise.

[essentialinvestor] 18/5/2023 10:45

manu, if you subtract the growth from the same Q in 2022, apparel revenue is down approx 2% in constant currency, however this takes no account of inflation.

What is the year over year inflation number for apparel ?, it would be 10% plus
would expect, it might be significantly higher than this, so inflation adjusted
that is a fat revenue drop and one having already disregarded Q 2022 revenue growth.

Yes it may be a blip, but it's a striking one.