Cluff Gold Share Discussion Threads

[selkirk69] 02/2/2012 14:03

Seems a bit of resistence at 90, lets hope we can punch through soon.

[capt bligh] 02/2/2012 11:28

Semafo is an interesting comparison company for CLF ( SMF TSX ) basically three west african operational units c 50, 50 and 150k oz /year about 8 mill oz res. so pretty much where we will be in two years or so with a bit of luck ... market cap 1.8billion

[amargosa] 27/1/2012 11:25

From the Telegraph, via Moneyweek:

The Yaoure mine in the Ivory Coast should make a pretty penny as the method being
used to target gold has changed. With cheap power on tap, the upside is considerable.

[chapat] 26/1/2012 19:49

IC - a million oz @ 3g/t - If this is confirmed then sky is a limit. The price will shoot above 150. Watch this space.

[nottud] 26/1/2012 16:41

Its nice to see the share price rising again!

[dnair28] 26/1/2012 09:48

Thanks Amargosa. It's nice to see a Finance Director get down and dirty with technical info!

[amargosa] 23/1/2012 17:13

Just had a listen to Pete Gardner on Minesite - pretty good presentation - he's very excited about IC - a million oz @ 3g/t he believes:

[amargosa] 22/1/2012 10:19

Take a look at Endeavour - they made the approach a couple of years ago (blimey!); they have since grown through a merger; look at their footprint in the region - adding Cluff's assets would be a game-changer for them.

Two years ago Cluff would have been able to persuade the shareholders of the great potential which would be realised if they rejected the bid and stayed independent. However, Cluff's dismal performance over the past 2 years may speak to a different outcome were another bid to appear now. They have made a better start to 2012; they will need to keep up that momentum if they are to stay out of the bid danger zone.

[paulisi] 21/1/2012 09:38

Thanks for the background, if i'm understanding corectly,the potential good news in the pipeline may have some effect on the price, but takeover speculation may be the key influence.
I can see this being a nice add on for a bigger player.

[ppidkw] 20/1/2012 17:21

Libra Advisors up their stake by 3 million shares to 10.3 million

[inside building] 20/1/2012 17:20

NEW RNS
Libra Advisors add 3m shares to move to 7.8%.
However, this would suggest that they were an unannounced seller and have bought back shares cheaper than they sold for probably prior to Xmas. Or the RNS is wrong and they have sold 3m!!

IB

[inside building] 20/1/2012 17:09

Paulisi,

The share price has risen to £1.30 in the past. It has dropped for a variety of reasons:

1. general sentiment towards small miners
2. West African political situation in IC and BF which impacted both Cluff mines
3. Cluff's mines do not have a long mine life based on current resources/plans
4. Cluff's failure to deliver on promises/statements made in last 18 months (for a variety of reasons)

Cluff were subject to a bid approach by two or three companies who supposedly were bidding towards the £1.50 mark but this did not meet internal valuations under a hostile basis. Golden Star Resources were in the frame back then.

Cluff have in the last 12 months had two investors take stakes or increase their holdings. Macquarie bought in at £1.16 or so and recently it is my estimation that Citi Group paid circa £1.10 for the 3m shares that Sprott sold and they bought in excess of 1m on the open market just before Xmas.

The question is are Cluff on paper worth more than £1.50. Different analysts get to different numbers but in general their is a view that Cluff were worth about £1.25 to £1.40 per share and are being discounted heavily based on the uncertaintities of all of their operating assets and the Baomhaun funding.

Cluff are a prime candidate for a takeover at these low share price levels. Whatever measure you use they are at the bottom of the London listed producer tables.
I personally think they are on the radar of Endeavour Mining.

So going back to the £1.50 and is it unreasonable by the Summer. By then they could have announced:

Baomahun
1.increased resources in primary area
2.Environmental permit issued by SL government
3.Resource extension drilling results in all other target areas
4.Hydro power results and BFS

Kalsaka
1.qtr and 1st half production
2.drilling results and sulphide resource upgrade from 2010/11 drilling campaign
3.drilling results from 2012 campaign
4.Oxide resource upgrade to extend mine life
5.Yako resource upgrade
6.High grade K zone and existing 500k tonne stockpile to support 2012 60-70k oz target

Yaoure
1.Significant Sulphide resource upgrade
2.Oxide resource upgrade to allow mine to start up and be self financing
3.Aggressive drilling campaign results

Mali
1.News on drilling

The bottom line is good news in all of the above will SIGNIFICANTLY impact the share price

The finance can be raised in several different ways and is not needed all at once. By about August we will know exactly where we are.

The company is worth £100m today but could be worth £400-£600m if they achieve 2014-15 target production of 250k ozs.

IB

[paulisi] 20/1/2012 16:26

Inside building - can they not raise the capital required without getting the share price up to around £1.50? Historically this number looks very unlikely and to double in price in 6 months would be very difficult
An asset sale is a more likely option in my opinion.

[inside building] 20/1/2012 15:23

Cluff got a lot of coverage across the pond yesterday.
A lot of US news agencies posted news on Cluff which in my mind is very unusual for a small British company to get such high profile mentions.

The potential of selling one of the assets to fund development of the others of course exists. However, i believe Spivey will want to develop all 3. If they can get the share price up to circa £1.50 by the Summer they have a chance of raising the capital needed ($180m) in a staged process and with the potential to do this without giving away too much.

12% of the shares are owned by the Directors so they will not want to damage their own holdings.

They actually might have more potential of developing Yaoure quicker and cheaper than Baomahun. This could then give them the capital to develop Baomahun with a slight delay.

If Yaoure drilling results historic and current are in by September they could have two BFS projects on the go.

IB

[lucky_punter] 20/1/2012 13:12

Gold sulphide drilling results from Cluff Gold's (LON:CLF, TSE:CFG) Ivory Coast acreage indicate a lot of future potential, brokers said today.
Shares rose 8% to 86.75p as Cluff itself described the results from the Angovia project - now called the Yaoure project - as "very promising".

[ppidkw] 20/1/2012 07:29

Got another mention in the Telegraph...

[p@] 19/1/2012 21:36

IB-Oil (energy) is up,and salaries/wages.

[inside building] 19/1/2012 21:34

Hydro power could reduce cash costs by $100 per oz.
Gold is at $1600 per oz so that is $600 per oz extra profit potential which is double the PFS profit number. If this is the case then surely the NPV doubles to $344m.

IB

[amargosa] 19/1/2012 21:19

Interesting, a similar strip ration was in the pre-freaibility study from 2010, yet the consultants still came up with a $500/oz cash cost and a healthy project value @$1100/oz POG of $172M (NPV).

[inside building] 19/1/2012 19:47

Very interesting times and each project has potential ups and downs.

Libertas Capital Corporate Finance statement about yesterdays presentation:

28.35 meters (m) from 35.3 m grading 3.24 grammes per tonne (g/t) gold, and 31.6 m from 31.8 m @ 1.97 g/t is rather special. These results give the company confidence that existing sulphide Joint Ore Reserves Committee compliant resources at Yaoure, consisting of 169,000 ounces (oz) (3.4 million tonnes (Mt) at 1.6 g/t) in measured category and 123,000 oz (2.2Mt at 1.7 g/t) in indicated category, can be significantly increased during 2012.
The Minesite presentation itself, wasn't actually particularly inspiring, production from their 78% owned Kalsaka gold mine in Burkina Faso is flat to declining, Angovia is in the Ivory Coast which is in political risk rehabilitation, while their 100% owned Baomahun gold project in Sierra Leone might show tricky economic numbers due to a very high strip ratio. We weren't excited by PMI Gold's (PMV-TSX/PVM-ASX) National Instrument 43-101 compliant Preliminary Economic Assessment of their Obotan gold project in Ghana, because of a significant pre-strip. If Obotan has issues with a 7.1 strip ratio, Baomahun's 12.6 to 1 strip ratio may be even more challenging. That said this further good news from Yaoure should help sustain the forward Cluff Gold share price momentum.

It would appear that the jewel in the crown could end up being Yaoure.

Existing cash and cash from 2012 production will make sure that the company can increase resources and reserves at all 3 projects. Will they sell Baomahun? Can they raise finance in 6 months without giving away too much?

Time will tell.

IB

[inside building] 19/1/2012 15:25

If they can get Yaoure to 100k ozs per annum at 90% ownership and reduce production costs to those that are being banded about for Baomahun then we have a VERY promising and profitable future ahead.
Yaoure resources could be extended to 1m ozs and perhaps an 8-10 year mine life. Capital investment would be knowhere near as high as Baomahun and potentially could be internally funded through Kalsaka cash flows. Then all of a sudden you have an extra 90k ozs per annum nett at maybe $1,000 per oz profit. That is an incremental $90m per annum profit.
2014 we have the potential of 3 production mines as follows:

SL = 135K OZS at 100%
IC = 100K OZS at 90%
BF = 70K OZS at 78% (based on extending existing resources)

By the end of 2014 Cluff could be producing circa 275k ozs per annum all attributable to Cluff.

I have been here more than 3 years now and this is at last starting to look as though we now have a plan.

IB

[killing_time] 19/1/2012 14:56

No, they still need to raise funds for Baomahun.