Cloudified Share Discussion Threads

[nicebut] 30/7/2016 16:59

You potentially need to put more money with IG if you use margin. That`s all.

[stephen1946] 30/7/2016 16:57

Sportbilly, neo, what exactly would be the significance of such an increase in the spread, come Monday? TIA.

[nicebut] 30/7/2016 16:41

IG seem to have increased on quite afew stocks actually....nothing CHL specific with tHAT MOVE AT ALL. OOPS

[neo26] 30/7/2016 16:37

Interesting, sportbilly need to keep an an eye on that.Another point I thought Widodo was a reformist, how come he allowed the slimeball Isran Noor to support him at the elections.

[sportbilly1976] 30/7/2016 15:14

Just here, a stock specific increase.

[neo26] 30/7/2016 14:47

SportsbillyThat's strange, u thought margins were 20%, have they increased for all aim shares?

[neo26] 30/7/2016 12:46

https://analysis.yosefardi.biz/2014/06/25/churchill-mining-vs-indonesia-prabowo/Indonesian perspective, basic article which is old..Out of court settlement likely but question is when and how much.Most likely after the forgery results...

[oggyrocks] 30/7/2016 12:43

Is that just here or on other small caps ? Might be as we are entering August and news imminent.

[sportbilly1976] 30/7/2016 12:31

Well the spread betters are expecting things shortly - overnight IG have increased their margin requirement here from 20% to 50%

[oggyrocks] 30/7/2016 12:20

Think we should have a fair run now with news getting closer. Good bet for speculators as potential massive gains here. As a long time holder I wouldnt expect it to fall in next few weeks.Maybe 30p by mid August. However sometimes small caps can be v volatile so interesting times.SXX jumped 30% in 2 days on no news, before settling on a 20% rise. 30% rise would be good here in short term. Have a big holding here. A spike might make me sell a few, but would hold 80% of holding till end.As they say - sell on news, buy on rumour.

[neo26] 30/7/2016 12:03

The only little concern i have is Sri Mulyani who is the new finance minister, she was previously working in the World Bank as managing director and chief operating officer, the number two post after the president. She was ranked number 37 on the Forbes list of the world's 100 most powerful women this year

Icsid is an affiliate of World Bank, she may have strong contact their and may sway tribunal. Thats my only concern.

[neo26] 29/7/2016 17:22

StephenThat's just to scare them, its all negotiation tactics.Well no problem, it he get most I will be shocked and happy.. :))

[stephen1946] 29/7/2016 17:19

Neo sorry you feel it necessary to say that.


D.Q. Has said "if ROI dispute the $1.3bn claim, we will raise the claim to $2bn"

That is not a quote from a man willing to accept 40% of his claim, if 40% or a tad more was acceptable, D.Q. would not have made that statemrnt.
Seems to me D.Q. Wants a damn sight more than 40%, for a world class mine, which is virtually what ROI will be doing when they pay CHL off.

[stephen1946] 29/7/2016 16:26

Reading D.Q. quotes and as much as is available on google about the gentleman, 40% at this stage and with the evidence looking so strong in CHL favour, will be readily refused.
D.Q. is not your average English gentlemen who will negotiate whilst considering the other mans feelings, D.Q. has ROI balls in his fist and will aqueeze until 75 or even 80% is agreed.
ROI have been obstinate in the extreme, D.Q. from what i have read is a 100% tough cookie, i am pleased he bats for us, imho he will get what he demands, whatever that is. Always assuming ROI see sense at this late stage and agree to settle.

[sportbilly1976] 29/7/2016 16:13

yep - 40% = c.£400mln or just under 300p a share.

i'd take that :)

[tivoliworldgaming] 29/7/2016 15:58

Another deramper called Buywell has got Churchill all so wrong, and I hope for his sake that he has changed his mind and now holds a few here.

[neo26] 29/7/2016 15:53

MasarapJuly has flew by and we are already near August, you are right with regards to early settlement. If roi offer circa 40% of the award DQ should really consider it and accept.Ah well, we shall see.GL

[masarap] 29/7/2016 15:45

Neo (6951), nope just been busy but checking in every now and then to read some good posts including yours, Debbie's and many others. I bought my ticket for the show a long time back and don't intend upgrading or downgrading. I'm just content with the risk / reward whilst awaiting the finale and wouldn't want to be out this weekend or any other going forward. I'm hopeful and, to plagarise DQ, 'quietly confident' it will be a good outcome from Chl's perspective.

I reckon the best outcome for both sides would be a negotiated settlement. Obviously it would have to be a slight compromise on the optimum CHL could expect if they held out for an arbitration award, but CHL would avoid some (fairly minimal) dilution and could take advantage of the weak pound / strong dollar.

[neo26] 29/7/2016 12:21

carcosa

With ROI main witness failing to attend i cant see Roi winning any of the point in this forgery phase.

Considering the claim is for $1.3b, im expecting the share price to touch £1 quite easily.

DQ has mentioned "just compensation" a number of times, definition below

"in general a fair and reasonable amount of money to be paid for work performed or to make one "whole" after loss due to damages."

[carcosa] 29/7/2016 11:58

It may be worthwhile to remember that the expected ICSID ruling is about whether the various documents are a) Authorised and b) Authentic. That's all. Their meaning and interpretation of their meaning is not subject to the forthcoming ruling; that comes later. However by inference we, as shareholders, can be confident that when that aspect of the ruling eventually comes to pass it will be in CHL's favour.

Authorised - the point which RoI are most likely to argue in my opinion because although they can have all the local state stamps and signatures plastered all over it, if the RoI 'process' was not followed then its quite easy to confirm that inappropriate activities took place thereby rendering the documents as not authorised. This is where the inefficiencies of the RoI system will work to their advantage.

If the Authorisation argument is lost by CHL then I can see CHL legitimately claiming alternative damages.

Authenticity - Although an occasional document may not be authentic my belief is that CHL will easily win this one simply because its easier for an official to use genuine documentation than nip down to a printers and create there own!

So, assuming that CHL broadly win the Authorised and Authenticity ruling what would your share price expectations be on the day and one month later... (assuming no secret talks etc)?

Mine is: 100p / 150p

[neo26] 29/7/2016 11:44

MasarapI thought you left us, still invested I assume. :)If the forgery case goes our way its a near certainty that we will get "just compensation" for the theft of our assets.Gl

[masarap] 29/7/2016 11:34

I don't remember the exact words but DQ in his December presentation said that he was aware that Joko Widodo found the CHL case annoying / embarrassing (or words to that effect) in the context of the impact for ROI and its bid to get inward investment. I'll listen again sometime and give the precise quote.

That's an interesting article that Shaun posted on here. The more political parties that sign up to support Widodo's coalition then the less reliance he has on Prabowo. My guess is that the President might have previously been reluctant to settle purely because it would have large negative implications for Prabowo and consequences for Widodo in terms of getting the his political programme through. It might be different now.

Initially when Widodo came to office he needed Prabowo to get through any legislation, hence the forced smiles and embrace following Prabawo throwing his toys out of his pram after his initial reluctance to accept the result. Maybe a CHL settlement was not politically convenient for a while but as more parties have joined the coalition then Widodo's need for Prabowo's support diminishes. He's a pragmatist and if he can get this case resolved without a political backlash (or a trigger of similar international arbitration cases) then there are a few pointers to suggest that he would be inclined to settle.

We don't know for sure though or how much ROI would settle for - maybe too low for CHL who would take advice from lawyers of course. Certainly DQ will play hardball as evidenced by his suggestions that CHL would up the claim to over $2b based on post 30 year resource estimates if ROI dispute the $1.3b plus interest figure.

I anticipate a lot of traders coming in from mid-August onwards with T20's.

[neo26] 29/7/2016 10:43

So which officials are chl actually negotiating with in roi?One can speculate this case can be embarrassing for Widodo, esp in sept.

[daddy warbucks] 29/7/2016 07:48

They do that every three months. Look at previous RNS.