Cloudcall Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 01/11/2002 11:38

Waldron, your prays have been answered.

Chirac call for France Telecom aid. He urged Brussels to take action to ease the European telecom debt crisis. EU Governments had inadvertently asked too much for the mobile phone licences.

to be continued

[waldron] 30/10/2002 22:32

You might say beg to differ, but i don`t think they`re talking to each other these days.

No real news out there on this subject. i wish they would get their finger out.

[maywillow] 29/10/2002 07:15

yet to see anything tangible,apart from Chirac and Blair seemingly falling out.

or should i say begging to differ.

[maywillow] 24/10/2002 23:08

perhaps there will be a press statement from the eu heads tomorrow

[ariane] 23/10/2002 10:38

French President Chirac is to discuss the Telecoms woes with EU Leaders on 24/25 October 2002. This initiative will no doubt be most popular due to France and Germany both making bailout arrangements for their own preferred Telecoms Companies.

What i am not certain about is the impacts on non governmental Telecoms companies.

Colt,CW and Vodafone spring immediately to mind.

i am also not sure where the UK Governement stands on this issue. It was the first to extract vast sums of money from the telecoms industry. Perhaps its about time that it gave something back.

The EU Rebate of £3 Billion due to the UK from the Thatcher negotiations in 1984 might only be made on condition that the UK accepts the Chirac view and uses the refund to aid its own Telecoms industry.

imho, any constructive comments will be quite pleasing.

SEE ALSO EPIC 3G

[yz426] 11/8/2002 19:05

Ignore 'em energyi, they go away.

Keep it up. Like your posts

[energyi] 11/8/2002 18:59

hv,
Do you make money on the market? (i doubt it). Have you not something
better to do with your time than post drivel?

[swager] 11/8/2002 18:58

jerry favors..give twenty senarios...and yes one of them has to be right....

[energyi] 11/8/2002 18:39

For the WEEKLY cycle, I notice:

1. Strong tendency for a Rally each Wednesday afternoon

[energyi] 25/7/2002 17:33

Analysis - Wednesday, July 24, 2002 8 p.m.

We have been looking for a market low this week. We stated that low
would be followed by the strongest rally since the May 17 highs. The Count
from the Middle Section, discussed in our July newsletter, called for some
sort of low this week. We stated in that newsletter, that given the Cycles
forecast for this week, that low was most likely near July 23, plus or
minus 1 day. The Dow reached a closing low of 7702 on Tuesday, July
23. The Dow reached a print low today, July 24, of 7532, and an intraday
low of 7489.54. The Dow then began a rally of 669 points, to a print high
for the day of 8202.02. At the highs the Dow was up almost 500 points for
the day, and closed up 488 points, which we hear is the second-largest one
day point gain in history.
The press will undoubtedly credit today's rise to such things as a possible
lowering of rates by the Fed, the arrest of such corporate executives as at
Adelphia, Congress trying to bolster investor confidence, or some other
such nonsense. The fact is that even if the Fed rumors prove true, if
lower rates from the Fed were truly the solution to the market's problems,
the Dow would be well above 11000 right now. You must train yourself to pay
no attention to the news or the rumors which are occurring coincident with
the swings up or down in the market. They are normally of little real value
when it comes to predicting what the market will do in the future.
While today was a good day, at some point tomorrow we would expect
another nasty decline, a decline that will probably scare most of the
street once again, and call today's strong rally into question. If that
decline holds above today's lows, the odds will be high that a wave 3 low
has been seen.
We have discussed the wave structure, and that we were now near the
bottom of wave 3 down, several times over the last two weeks. However, we
have received several questions about this the last few days, so it is
obvious we have not made our position clear.
The current decline began from the March highs of this year. That
decline will unfold in 5 waves down to the low we expect this year. The low
we looked for this week should be the bottom of wave 3 of that 5 wave
decline. It should be followed by the strongest rally since the May highs
of this year, which will be wave 4 of that 5 wave pattern. Once wave 4
peaks, another decline to new lows should follow, and that will be the
final 5th wave down, which will create the final bottom for this decline
from the March highs of this year. Keep in mind, we are in no way saying
that the 5th wave low, which is most likely in August, will mark a final
bottom for the entire Bear Market. Since the Gann Year Chart turned down in
March of 2001, it has been our position that no final Bear Market bottom
was likely before the year 2006, and we explain our reasoning for this
position in our July 15th newsletter. But we believe the 5th wave bottom
in August will be followed by a major rise in stock prices, in both the Dow
and the Nasdaq, into the year 2003. From the high due next year, the next,
and worst phase of the Bear Market will begin. However, we do not want you
to spend too much time worrying about what will follow the top due in 2003.
That is too far in the future, and worrying about it now will only detract
from your ability to profit during the rise into next year.
Assuming the overseas markets respond favorably overnight, which we
believe they will, there should be some spillover rally tomorrow before a
stronger correction sets in, as we discussed earlier in this update.
However, if we are correct about a wave 3 low this week, the rally should
ultimately continue higher next week.

Source:

[hjb] 04/7/2002 09:06

2003















Not the VALUE of the index, but the YEAR in which I guess the bottom will be reached. I haven't got a clue what the value of the index will fall to. I'm planning on buying shares again in 2004.

[alexx] 04/7/2002 08:59

yes Alchemy, that's the difficult part and there is perhaps NO easy answer

I've put in stops today on my index related shorts at about 2% above current levels, just sitting on smaller company shorts, now trying to do nothing ( almost successfully, thrown away 2% of yesterdays profit playing indexes )

[teaboat] 04/7/2002 08:52

agree with you Energyi, we might have seen a bottom for a few months, or even the rest of this year, but I firmly believe there is MORE to come - 4000 or lower is certainly not out of the question.

In the short term I recall 4400 being a crucial level for the FTSE. Something to do with FSA regulations % cash to shares for insurance/life companies. Below 4400 and some of these companies may be forced to sell chunks of shares to generate cash, and this could result in a run on these companies.

However,as others have pointed out, it is a mugs game calling the bottom, but so long as you have your stops in and are flexible enough to switch your thinking ad position, then you wont get caught out if the DOW and FTSE drop 300 pts on Friday and head towards another bottom.

[moneybags] 04/7/2002 08:44

As a guess , I will say 3,450 on the F.T.S.E., but not for another 18 months to 2 years yet.

It just a game....

Regards , moneybags

[energyi] 04/7/2002 08:28

A BOTTOM (but not THE bottom) was put in place yesterday.
The market should rally nicely for several days.

Closed my Puts yesterday and went long a handful of Tech stocks.

[mbbcat] 04/7/2002 07:20

As you say its a mugs game, but the chart may give some hints - massive multi year head & shoulders pattern just completed right shoulder, theory says that the measured move down is equal to the diference to from the top of the head to the neckline ie about 1930 points down from here which would give a move to about UKX 2462 of course your figures may vary somewhat dependong on where you define the neckline & using arithmetic / log scales, but you get the idea :(

Of course some h&s patterns fail & price moves on to start a new pattern.


By the way does anyone use elliot wave software / methods? what do you think?

[alchemy] 04/7/2002 07:09

alexx yes indeed, but if you are short at the bottom and dont recognise it what siganls are you going to use to cut those shorts?
In otherwords you have at some stage to countenance that the bend at the end has happened.

[alexx] 04/7/2002 05:47

let the trend be your friend

don't know the answer, calling the bottom is a mugs game, follow the trend and let the people betting the other way call the bottom, the're nearly always wrong

[the other kevin] 03/7/2002 15:23

Roll up all you readers of runes, tech analysts, fundamentalists, guessers, gut feelers et al. Anyone brave enough to forecast the FTSE low point for 2002? I'll stick my neck out to start with 4328.