Close Enhanced Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 21/11/2009 17:51

SKYSHIP,

lol

Highly unlikely, but it's not the total embarrassment it was. Add Glitnir back, and it would have performed well.

tiltonboy

[skyship] 21/11/2009 13:40

Tilts - nice rise last week - you'll be in the money at this rate!

[tiltonboy] 21/11/2009 12:41

jzd,

The company announced recently what will happen if there is a future payoout from Glitnir.

[jzd] 21/11/2009 11:12

Sharpshare & Tilton thanks for the explanations. But when will Glitnir payout? We may have to wait for years. Could this potential payout give Close Bros a reason to delay any payout?

[tiltonboy] 20/11/2009 09:41

Sharpshare,

Agreed, would be an added bonus.

[sharpshare] 20/11/2009 09:26

187p + potential Glitnir payouts.
Every 1p in the pound that Glitnir pays out equals about .45p per share so if 10p in the pound payout means another 4.5p. Shareholders should get something, but how much I do not know.

[tiltonboy] 20/11/2009 09:19

wolstencraft,

You missed this bit, which is important:

Based on the average daily value of the Commodity Portfolio over the Calculation Period to 18 November 2009, and assuming the End Value+ of the Commodity Portfolio is the same, the Final Capital Entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be approximately 211 pence+ subject to there being no counterparty default or any unforeseen circumstances, and in the event of Glitnir Banki HF defaulting and having a zero recovery rate and there being no insolvency of any other issuer of Debt Securities held by the Company or any other event of default or any unforeseen circumstances, the Final Capital Entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be approximately 171 pence+.

Given we are 38 weeks into the final year, the calculation works out, roughly, as:

38 x 171 + (14 x 231)
---------------------
52


tiltonboy

[wolstencroft] 20/11/2009 09:08

thanks - forgive me but I cannot reconcile these

1. "Based on the value of the Commodity Portfolio as at 18 November 2009, and
assuming the End Value+ of the Commodity Portfolio is the same"..."in the event of Glitnir Banki HF defaulting and having a zero
recovery rate and there being no insolvency of any other issuer of Debt
Securities held by the Company or any other event of default or any unforeseen
circumstances, the Final Capital Entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date
would be approximately 231 pence+"

Which seem to state that assuming prices stay the same as now the payout is 231p

2. March WTI and Gold futures are basically the same as spot, maybe a little more. So is copper (spot 3.09 March 3.12). I don't have prices for aluminium and Zinc but surely they would have to drop significantly to cause the final payout to drop by 42p.

Of course I am missing something probably obvious - what?

[wolstencroft] 20/11/2009 08:32

tilton: Where do you get 187p from? thanks.

[tiltonboy] 19/11/2009 13:20

Big jump in potential terminal NAV this week. Now at 187p given no change in the underlying. Only 14 weeks to go...not that I'm counting.

[tiltonboy] 12/11/2009 17:30

SKYSHIP,

The terminal value is taken as an average over the final year, so each week's figure is important. I'm not particularly looking for the NAV to go much higher, rather to protect the current projected NAV, and as each week goes by, any fall will have less and less of an influence.

Whilst it will still produce a loss for me, it is still a damn sight better than it could have been.

tiltonboy

[skyship] 12/11/2009 17:26

Tilts - wake me up when there are just 3 weeks to go - 15weeks is a hell of a long time in today's commodity markets!!

[tiltonboy] 12/11/2009 17:04

Not much change in the likely terminal value this week (182.25p), if the basket remains constant over the next 15 weeks.

[tiltonboy] 06/11/2009 08:58

Nice pick up in Oil and Gold this week has helped the NAV.

16 weeks to go, and at present values, we are looking at a payout of 184p. Be nice to think we might get a few coppers on top for Glitnir as well.

[sharpshare] 01/11/2009 11:25

On track to receive about 180p in just under 4 months (assuming stable commodities) time plus any lucky Glitnir payout. Looks like Glitnir balance sheet might support about a 20% payment although even 10c in the dollar would be nice.

pg 61

[tiltonboy] 29/10/2009 13:13

Just hope that commodities don't weaken too much in the final 17 weeks. Was quite looking forward to CED paying out somewhere in the 180's, but that may be be a bit optimistic.

[tiltonboy] 22/10/2009 15:42

Another good week for commodities means:

34 down, 18 to go. At present values we are looking at a payout of 182p.

[tiltonboy] 19/10/2009 19:22

badtime,

Agreed, although another couple of weeks of these commodity prices, and I will pay the full offer.

tiltonboy

[badtime] 19/10/2009 19:10

Horrible spread...tried limit buys of 163.5 and 164..nothing took the bait

[tiltonboy] 16/10/2009 08:47

The big spike in commodity prices this week has helped the profile.

33 down, 19 to go. At present values we are looking at a payout of 179.3p.

[tiltonboy] 08/10/2009 14:08

My weekly run-down to expiry:

32 down, 20 to go. At present values we are looking at a payout of 174.7p.

[tiltonboy] 06/10/2009 16:48

Picked a few up at 162p this afternoon.

[davebowler] 06/10/2009 15:46

Gold all time high today should help.