Close Enhanced Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 21/2/2008 10:10

Is that a warrant?

[zutalors] 21/2/2008 00:33

Anyone with any thoughts on LCTY ?

Soft Commodities 41.00%
Energy 39.00%
Basic Metals 13.00%
Precious Metals 7.00%

and LCNE ?

Softs 34.40%
Grains 21.32%
Industrial Metals 21.32%
Precious Metals 11.48%
Livestock 11.48%

Performance similar to CED over recent months and better than CED2.

[skyship] 18/2/2008 11:27

Mangal - thanks for that - neater than the version I'd set up; though produces the same result.

Today we are at 192%, equating to 284p, providing a GRY of 14.57% @ 216p.

[badtime] 14/2/2008 19:20

I just rely on u lot :)

[mangal] 14/2/2008 19:13

Skyship, I track the %s as follows: - oil au al cu zn Total p NAV-start(p) 33.33 33.33 11.11 11.11 11.11 100p u/l price-start 51.15 432.85 1972 3367 1383- u/l price-now 93.7 912.2 2726 7842 2370- NAV-now(p) 61.06 70.24 15.36 25.88 19.03 192p % split now 32% 37% 8% 13% 10%- [edit: the present NAV is actually 284p, ie start value plus two times the increase between the start and end value]

[schober] 14/2/2008 17:53

demully on tmf raises a relevant point and suggests a strategy

[skyship] 14/2/2008 17:42

MANGAL - Yr post above states: "...but the proportion now is roughly: gold-37%, oil-32%, base-31%."

Hadn't taken that into account in my model! I have a constant 33.33% Gold, Oil & the 3xBase Metals.

Will need to rework my model to adjust for the relative changes; which are presumably due to the differing growth rates since inception.

[tiltonboy] 14/2/2008 10:59

schober,

Both have a floor at 100p, but will redeem at whatever the underlying are standing at.

As mangal points out CED look better value, on a larger discount, and with less time to run to maturity. CED2 offers greater protection if the underlying basket falls significantly.

I favour CED, but my colleague is buying CED2.

You pays your money.....

tiltonboy

[mangal] 14/2/2008 10:08

schober, CED started off as one-third each of gold, oil & base metals but the proportion now is roughly: gold-37%, oil-32%, base-31%.

CED is currently better value in terms of discount to u/l. It is currently trading at a discount of around 25% whilst CED2 is on a discount of about 10%.
Not sure what you mean when you say that they both reedeem at £1.

[schober] 14/2/2008 09:53

has anyone had any thoughts on ced1 vs ced2
ced1 - one-third crude oil, one-third gold and one-third industrial metals (equally weighted between aluminium, copper and zinc) - ends 2010
ced2 - oil, copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel, sugar, corn and wheat - ends 2013
both redeemm at £1


concern has been raised on hte AIGA board about etf securities are backed by AIG (aig's Auditors have been somewhat critical)

[davebowler] 11/2/2008 17:39

Based on the values of the commodities as at 31 January 2008, and assuming these
values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the Company,
the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be 277
pence. This is not a forecast nor is it a reflection of the net asset value per
Share and takes no account of any unforeseen circumstances and is provided for
informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment
decisions.

Commodity Start Value As at
31 January 2008:
Oil $51.15 $91.75
Gold $432.85 $ 923.25
Aluminium $1972.00 $ 2643.00
Copper $3367.00 $ 7170.50
Zinc $1383.00 $ 2392.00
Commodity Portfolio 100.00% 188.66%

[davebowler] 08/2/2008 16:33

Yes- I do-have a look at tthe AIGA thread

[boatbum] 08/2/2008 16:18

Skyship.
Thanks. Do you or any other thread users have an opinion on AIGG? The Money Week bint keeps on ramping them, and they are responding well!

[skyship] 06/2/2008 08:17

NAV dropping off - back to 264p this morning. Temporarily out again & will look to buy back in low 190s.

[skyship] 02/2/2008 09:55

Boatbum - look at CED2; Nasdaq:CRESY; OMX:TAGR

[davebowler] 01/2/2008 11:24

Based on the values of the commodities as at 30 January 2008 and assuming these
values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the Company,
the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be 275

pence.
This is not a forecast nor is it a reflection of the net asset value per
Share and takes no account of any unforeseen circumstances and is provided for
informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment
decisions.

[boatbum] 31/1/2008 16:42

Anyone got any suggestions for a good 'envelope' for soft commodities - a la CED for oil and metals? Lucky Jim reckons softs are the game for 2008

[skyship] 29/1/2008 14:38

ALAN - Herewith the stats we were discussing:

From today's 187.4% , ie an NAV of 274p the following valuation falls could occur: (prices relating to the current offer of 199p)

# A fall of 9.82% would take the %age gain back to 169% , ie an NAV of 238p for a GRY of 9%pa from 199p

# A fall of 20.22% would take the %age gain back to 149.5% , ie an NAV of 199p for a GRY of 0%pa from 199p

So we have a very strong cushion of support at current prices.

For anyone even halfway bullish of oil, gold & base metals - CED has to be a great investment @ 199p - & IT'S FREE OF STAMP DUTY!

[pote] 29/1/2008 10:48

Cheers

Pote

[skyship] 29/1/2008 08:26

The NAV has moved ahead to 272p today (Oil up @ $91) so, just in case they're not coming back, I bought back the other 5k I wanted @ 198.78p. At 199 the GRY = 16.32%!

Pote - You'll find all the answers in here: